Turkey A National Critical Intelligence Estimate

Turkey A National Critical Intelligence Estimate
Image Source: A National Critical Intelligence Estimate Presented by Section 31 For Approval by Professor R. Nichols

Section 31 Jay Kippen, Team Leader Dan Routier, Executive Officer
Political Kristell Havens Kristina Anderson Intelligence/Cyber Security Brendan Kinchla Naveen Kumar Jeff Sperry Economic Darcy Pitkin Kyle Leisner Military Ekow Ocran Enzi Jauregui

Agenda Executive Summary State Snapshot Political Economic Military
Intelligence Key Judgments Possible outcomes

Useful Definitions Political Islam Conservative Democracy Theocracy
The inclusion of Islam into the secular political arena Conservative Democracy In Turkey conservative democracy is liberalism by promoting social conservativeness Theocracy A government ruled by religious virtues Secular Not bound by any religion Secularism A noted separation between government and religion, common in Turkish politics. Political Islam Secondary APA: Hirschkind, C. (2013). What is Political Islam. Retrieved from Conservative Democracy APA:Bridal, M. S. (2013). Queering consertative democracy. Retrieved from Theocracy APA: secularism. (2013). Retrieved from Secular APA:secularism. (2013). Retrieved from Secularism APA:secularism. (2013). Retrieved from

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary Critical Intentions
•Based on analysis of available data points, it is believed: •Intent of the AKP party with assistance from the Muslim Brotherhood is to quietly institute various non-secular religious political reforms; • To consolidate and maintain control of the government •via use of subversive political tactics; •clear intentions of creating an extremist religious Muslim nation • that is contrary to western principles

Executive Summary Capabilities
AKP capabilities to complete their intentions Infiltration of key military and government branches Control of Military Military Chief of Staff is a member of AKP and considered principal figure for carrying out coup attempts Control of Legislature Controls the military through legislation, i.e. military reforms, budget etc... Control Judicial branch Placement of AKP friendly staff Courts are not open to public scrutiny- ripe with corruption

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Turkey is at a crossroads in their secular ideology and political identity, turning either direction will send the country and people towards an uncertain future Right the country will fall into a Muslim extremist state thereby isolating itself from western influence, but at a price Left involves the military stepping in to protect the secular ideology with prospects of a civl war or military control for an extended period Straight allows the Muslim Brotherhood to continue solidifying their march towards an extremist state and ruling out any further chances for normalcy Understanding the consequences of this international crisis is of major importance, not only in terms of strategic interests for United States but the whole world This report will focus on the implications if Turkey becomes a Muslim radicalized nation-state similar to Iran

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key areas for analysis
Identification of strategic important areas for the United States, and their relevance Analysis of hypothetical predictions and their outcomes Identification of potential key indicators Political Economic Intelligence Military Development and analysis of alternate outcomes based on analysis of critical data points and assumed predictions

Executive Summary U.S. Interests
Areas of strategic importance for the United States in relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation Energy Security Turkey's strategic location provides a means for regional distribution of oil /gas originating in the Middle East and Caspian basin through a series of pipelines traversing Turkish territory Regional stabilization efforts With Turkey's standing in the Muslim world the US is able to use Turkey as an intermediary in relations with other regional Muslim nations concerning Israel, Syria, Jordan, and to an extent Iran Provides a unique example to combat fundamentalist through the use of Democracy and secular activities

Executive Summary U.S. Interests Continued
Areas of strategic importance for the United States in relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation Military Cooperation NATO- Turkish involvement provides the west a unique opportunity to conduct regional stabilization efforts in relation to former Soviet bloc Muslim nations Missile defense systems- Turkey's strategic location provides an ideal location for defending against missile launches from Iran War on Terror- with Turkey's assistance several key regional states supported efforts to combat terrorism

Executive Summary Predictions
PREDICTIONS IF TURKEY RADICALIZES Political Turkey Loses Bid to join EU Turkey Loses NATO Membership Turkey Aligned Politically with Iran (Cyprus occupation) Economic Turkey’s Economy will Decline/Collapse Military Military Coup Probable Imzir & Incirlik Air Bases and Airspace Permissions Revoked Intelligence/Cyber Security Turkey will increase intel relationship with Iran while decreasing relationship with US/Israel Loss of SIGINT and HUMINT Resources and Placement

Executive Summary Key Indicators
Political Government instituting unpopular Islamic reforms contrary to Turkey's secular ideology Reinstated Hatip religious schools Started sponsoring official Quran courses Started teaching Sunni Islam in schools Dramatically Increased the number of mosques The secular population is now moving away from viewing the government in a favorable way Freedom of press is constrained The government established controls to limit news media No longer can Turkish people express opposition to government Key government players are from a pro-Islamic background with strong ties to the Muslim Brotherhood Increased the Directorate of Religious affairs budget from 553T to over 2.7Q in first 4 years of rule When determining freedom of press Apply the Natan Sharansky method called "the village square test" "Can a person go out into the village square and say he does not like the government?" "Can you talk freely about the government?" If neither can be accomplished then the government has established restraints of freedom of press Secondary resource: T=Trillion Q=Quadrillion Appears the AKP has resorted to subversive political tactics

Executive Summary Key Indicators Continued
Economic Decline in economic growth, measured from pre- Erdoğan 1990 to present 2013 Private sector has increased borrowing, in March of 2013 Turkeys private sector foreign debt was 202 million, up from the previous month, total debt currently 38.5 billion Suspected increase of the Hawalas system cannot be predicted due to the nature of the system, almost no records are kept, it is noted that an increase in Hawala usage occurs during time of conflict and political discord Istanbul stock market decreased by 10% and Interest rates are up 50% Source Primary APA: Baku, A., & Tagiyeve, T. A. (2013). Turkish private sector’s external debt grows by over $200 million. Retrieved from Bullet 1. Stats supporting this statement is on slide 69, from 2001 thru 2012 steady growth, % 2013 estimated 3-4% significant considering growth was average 6%

Economic Government influence in the private sector President Erdoğan accusing Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) of terrorism Turkey has a history of prosecuting companies for suspected anti-government activities Possible government sanctions or loss of business KOC represents 6% of total economic output Have lost 17% of business since the riots

Military Infiltration of pro-Islamic military officers into the current ranks Current ruling party instituted military reforms designed to limit their power in the political arena in order to curb coup attempts Through political action, redefined the military's responsibilities to strictly protect the country from outside threats Persecution of key military officers who would be in the position to direct a coup Demonstrations over US military bases, seeking expulsion from Turkey Continued decrease in military budget 1. Some refer to these Military officers as “Fethullahist” after Abdulla Gulen who through his wealth is capable of sending future military officers to military schools resulting in them becoming pro-Islamic Source Secondary APA: Sharon-Krespin, R. (2009). Fethullah Gülen’s Grand Ambition Turkey’s Islamist Danger. Retrieved from 2. This seems to be the trend, if you're not aligned with Erdogan you get arrested, easy to do since the Judicial branch is under Erdogan’s control 3. Demonstrations over US bases in Turkey, no doubt these will become more prolific as time passes, Erdogan may seem pro-western but there are doubts! APA: Taspinar, O. (2012). Turkey: The New Model? Retrieved from

Intelligence Recently developed intelligence sharing capabilities with Iran in order to combat Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorism Provided US equipment to Iran Turkeys intelligence relationship with the US has cooled since 2004 Mainly due to perceived US support for the Kurdish PKK party

Including a Brief History
STATE SNAPSHOT Including a Brief History

State Snapshot Geographical strategic location for controlling Turkish straits Slightly larger than the state of Texas 7200 km of coastline Many natural resources Coal Iron Copper Mercury Ethnic groups Turkish 70-75% Kurdish 18% Other 7-12% Economic resources Agricultural Outputs Tobacco Cotton Grain Olives Language-Turkish Religions Muslim-99.8% Mostly Sunni Other-.02% Population 80 Million 81 Provinces Source: Secondary:

State Snapshot Facts Turkey Estimated Population- 80 million
Percent of total population Muslim (~79 million) Capital: Ankara Government Type: Republic parliamentary democracy with a free market economy Suffrage: 18 years of age Last elections were held during June, 2011 Recently, presidential elections were amended to reflect a direct election process Next elections will be held June 2015 Political Parties (at least 61) Administrative Divisions: 81 Provinces Independence: 29 October 1923 Marked by a national holiday every October 29 Constitution Ratified on 7 November 1982 Amendment passed by referendum October 21, 2007 Turkey is classified as a secular state. However, it is without a doubt that Islam is an integral part of life in Turkey. Most are Sunni Muslims, with a significant number part of the Alevi branch of Shias. Secondary Source:

Illustration of Turkey’s Strategic Importance to Middle Eastern Affairs
Google Earth Secondary APA: Google Earth (Cartographer). (2013). Middle east map [Topographic map]. Retrieved from Google Earth (Cartographer). (2013). Middle east map [Topographic map]. Retrieved from 8142ffb7:0xa5b ea72c,Middle+East&gl=us&ei=bEDjUcbaG87j4AOmmYDADA&ved=0CCwQ8gEwAA

Key judgments and possible outcomes

Key judgment and possible outcome
Prediction One Key judgment and possible outcome Turkey gains Economic Union (EU) membership and becomes radicalized Analyzing all data points Political Economic Military Intelligence Has NO effect on western relations Upon gaining EU status Turkey becomes radicalized, however, fearing complete economic turmoil that would take years to overcome (Such as in Iran) Turkey institutes a policy of “Laissez-faire” or let it alone, choosing to live with the current influence the west has on Turkey's economic situation, rather than face complete economic meltdown, which could spell dire trouble for the new radical state Turkey has been known to take a different approach to the balance between politics and religion, (Political Islam) with that said Erdogan may appear to be pro-Islamic just by his intentions and reforms, but in fact it appears he is choosing a balance of power and trying to restore some form of religious reforms in order to bring the faith back into the Turkish peoples lives Political supporting Facts Reforms designed to limit the military involvement in politics subtitle religious reforms Economic Analysis of economic trends and key elements including foreign investment, capital cash flow, and tourism industry

Prediction Two Key judgment and possible outcome Turkey fails to gain EU status Erdogan's 2002 promise to attain EU memberships is a key component to AKP's popularity, which if their bid fails would almost certainly spell defeat for his non-secular state and the AKP party As it stands now the key to Turkey's future rests in attaining EU status, if Erdogan and the AKP party obtains this then the Turkish people would see it as formal recognition of his intentions, almost similar to a mandate, which and would most likely result in the AKP party introducing further radicalization efforts and continuing down the path However, if EU status is not obtained the Turkish people would most likely view Erdogan and the AKP party as the reason for this failure and demand their removal, either by referendum, voting in 2014, or through military intervention. This is most likely the case and the reason EU membership is being held up, awaiting election results for 2014

Prediction Three Key judgment and possible outcome Continued pro-islamic government intervention through unpopular reforms resulting in a military coup similar to the 1960 one Junior grade officers stage the coup without approval or knowledge from higher military leadership Unique as it applies to today's situation AKP has infiltrated key military command structures Has also infiltrated elements of junior grade officers Consolidated gains from Political, Legislative, and Judicial branches The AKP party has since the early 1990's initiated a subversive political agenda designed to slowly increase the pro-islamic movement inside Turkey by methodologically taking over key elements of the government. However, even after consolidating authority over the military through Legislative and judicial process it will ultimately come down to these junior grade officers who still hold allegiance to the non-secular values designed Atatürk.

Presented by, Kristell Havens and Kristina Anderson
POLITICAL Presented by, Kristell Havens and Kristina Anderson Agenda Summary Key Political Indicators Predictions What If Scenario Supporting History Political Organization Consequences

Political Summary •Government type: republic parliamentary democracy with a free market economy •Turkey’s geographical location allows them to act as the bridge between Europe and the Middle East •This position has helped Prime Minister Erdoğan build up Turkey’s political influence and economy over the last decade

Political Summary Continued
•The political and societal upheavals in recent times within this region have left Turkey largely unscathed • Electoral democracy- allows for flexibility and gives the people of Turkey a voice in their government. •Recent protests and military actions within the state have opened up international discourse on the realities of the political situation in Turkey •Corruption, cronyism, lack of transparency and accountability •Creeping authoritarian actions •Fundamentalist restrictions on democracy

Political Summary Continued
•The Syrian refugee influx and border violence is spilling over into Turkish soil, and they are largely ill-equipped to handle the crippling effects •Turkey still acts as an occupying force in Northern Cyprus, with no plans to yield on their position •They are now fighting for claims to newly discovered oil reserves on the southern half of the island

Key Indicators of Political Discourse
•Prime Minister Erdoğan is instituting reforms that are considered unpopular with secular populations •Secular population is moving away from viewing the government in a favorable light •Pro-Islamic reforms have resulted in Erdoğan losing his majority mandate •Freedom of the press is constrained •Influence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) inside of Turkey has grown •The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is viewed with suspicion by some segments of the electorate, since they have strong Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to lean toward Islamic based ideals. Apply the Natan Sharansky method called "the village square test" "Can a person go out into the village square and say he does not like the government?" "Can you talk freely about the government?" If neither can be accomplished then the government is considered oppressive Secondary resource:

Key Indicators of Political Discourse Continued
Erdoğan is pushing for international legislation that would make it illegal to affront the sensitivities of Muslims Twitter, Facebook, or any other social media device has been labeled a societal risk The government is concerned that it will compromise Islamic values- but more than that it will encourage protest as it did in the Arab Spring "There is a problem called Twitter right now and you can find every kind of lie there, The thing that is called social media is the biggest trouble for society right now."- Erdoğan Erdoğan is attempting to take away freedoms that democracy has brought, even making it illegal to buy alcohol at college campuses Banning alcohol is a reform that is religiously based and shows the encroachment of religious ideology into daily life

Key Indicators of Political Discourse Continued
Turkey is currently the #1 jailer of journalists in the world December 2012, 49 journalists were imprisoned, the next closest country was Iran with 45 Anti-state and Terrorism charges were brought against the journalists Erdoğan has charged at least 5 journalists with defamation suits Police are the biggest threat, they are targeting the press, especially during the protests Resulting in equipment loss, physical threats, raids, assaults, imprisonment, and obstruction Police do not fear being held accountable Government calls some journalists “terrorists” Source: Committee to Protect Journalists. (n.d.). Attacks on the press. Retrieved from turkey.php Source: Ogret, O. (2013). Danger on Turkey's streets: Reporting on the civil unrest. Committee to Protect Journalists. Retrieved from the-civil-u.php

Indicators of Islamic Political Subversion Tactics
In addition to democratic reforms the AKP party instituted Islamic reforms meant to address an apparent lack of Islamic values, reforms such as 85,000 Mosques to date or 1 for every 300 people 90,000 Imams Reinstated Imam-Hatip religious schools New 4000 government sponsored official Quran courses Sunni Islam teachings in school Spending on the Turkish Directorate of Religious affairs has risen dramatically 2002 Budget was 553 Trillion, has risen to 2.7 Quadrillion in just 4 years of AKP rule* Indicates a change in core party values, beginning a trend toward more religiously based political output. This will create division between the electorate- many were under the impression that the AKP was a moderate political force. Secondary Source:

Political Predictions
If Turkey becomes radicalized with Muslim ideology: The extremist elements in power are met with a counter movement, and civil violence/war breaks out in the country The extremist elements in power sever ties with Western democracies Resulting in loss of European Union (EU) bid NATO membership may be jeopardized Turkey may turn to political alignment with Iran, which would impact US relationship Invasion of neighboring countries, like Cyprus in order to gain control of newly discovered oil This would lead to strained diplomatic relations for the United States with countries in the region Israel is already on course to align with Cyprus- this will lead to better strategic positioning for Israel This will also create tensions and increase the likelihood for conflict

Political What-if Scenario
What if extremist elements were to take over Turkey? The fragile relationship between Cyprus and Turkey would be shattered Ethnic cleavages would encourage internal dispute Increased violence at borders Civil war The drive for natural resources would push extremist-Turkey to take control of Cyprus Turkey may experience a breakdown in relations between EU and NATO Increased tensions throughout the region and within Turkey Loss of strategic access point for US and NATO

Erdoğan Approval Rating Faltering, Indicator of Political Discontent
Pew Research Poll shows that Erdoğan is losing favor among the more secular groups of people 2011- after sweeping victories for the AKP- confidence in Erdoğan was very high 2013- his policies, are falling out of favor with the secular population Secular/religious divide It should be noted that the popularity poll was done prior to the protests, and military action currently plaguing the country. Pew Research also found that Erdoğan is losing favor with people living in Istanbul Urban/rural divide His favorability is at risk- especially with the younger generation of Turks Could his approval rating be declining because his promise to bring Turkey into the EU has not developed yet. INDICATOR? Erdoğan and AKP control approximately 80% of the media Judgment: If Erdogan cannot bring Turkey into the EU by the next election in 2014 will his party suffer and lose? Perhaps this is the reason EU membership is being held up, cause if Erdogan gets Turkey into the EU this will imply to the Turkish people that the west legitimizes the AKP

Erdoğan Approval Rating Losing Favor
Confidence 2011 Losing Popularity Source: Pew Research, Global Attitudes Project: Erdogan more popular among devout muslims. (2013). Retrieved from Source needs re-added to ref list: Pew Research Center. (2011, June 7). On eve of elections, a more upbeat mood in turkey. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Pew Research Global Attitudes Project: Pew Research, Global Attitudes Project: Erdogan more popular among devout muslims. (2013). Retrieved from PM.png Pew Research Center. (2011, June 7). On eve of elections, a more upbeat mood in turkey. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Pew Research Global Attitudes Project:

The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey
Islam developed not only as a religious movement but as a political force The Quran provides practitioners with the “Straight Path” or Sharia, Islamic Law Sharia Law system was officially abolished in Turkey “Turkification of Islam” Progressive reforms to Islam in order to mold the religion to fit the national Turkish identity Translate Quran to Turkish rather than Arabic Prayers were spoken in Turkish Turkey has dense networks of Sufi Islamists Philosophically based Spread through storytellers, poets, philosophers

The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey Continued
• The Turkish middle class movements have promoted Islamic identity through new ‘identity spaces’ •Internet, social media, journals, news media and education • Kemalism was established to secularize the state and create a feeling of nationalism • Backlash of movement has been the failure (due to military) to incorporate civil society and democracy • State is effectively more important than the citizenry • In order to connect with the Islamic foundations of the country, Turkey officially established “Turkish-Islamic synthesis" • This increased the budget for the Directorate of Religious Affairs, and began promoting religious activity Last bullet is an Indicator

Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
1948- NATO was established as a defense to growing Soviet threat after the WWII 1952- Turkey joined alliance seeking to strengthen its defense policy Geopolitical significance made Turkey an important regional power Turkey carried out duties as a member of NATO through the Cold War and the Korean War Since the 1980’s, Turkey has been involved in a number of defense issues Terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) Imia/Kardak Crisis on the Aegean Sea Internal conflicts in the Balkans Gulf War

Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO continued
Later half of 1990’s- Turkey shifted its national security policy into a more restrained civilian policy Following the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center- Turkey shared a common focus on terrorism Tensions rose in the USA when the Turkish Parliament refused to send Turkish troops to Iraq in 2003 creating conflict within NATO Turkey’s shifting focus to the Middle East Effectively pushed their EU ally aside jeopardizing membership NATO is concerned New Strategic Concept (2010) Pro-Islamic Justice and Development (AKP) Establishment of cooperation with NATO, as outlined in the New Strategic Concept, adopted by NATO in 2010) and the pro-Islamic background of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are alarming the Western world, including NATO

Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO continued
Turkey believes the integration of all Western Balkan countries in Euro-Atlantic structures is key to lasting peace and stability in the region In terms of military, Turkey is going to be a serious problem for NATO if extremists come to power This will have consequences for NATO Without use of the Turkish straits there will be issues with Russia and Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia Establishment of cooperation with NATO, as outlined in the New Strategic Concept, adopted by NATO in 2010) and the pro-Islamic background of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are alarming the Western world, including NATO

Key Turkish Political Figures
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Prime Minister Raised in a devout Muslim family Mayor of Istanbul Chairman of the AKP Served a prison term for reciting religious poems during a public address Commenced EU membership negotiations during his tenure Instituted many reforms Brought the countries inflation under control Reciting religious excerpts in public address are against the Law (Secularism)

Key Political Figures Abdullah Gül President
Member of the Welfare Party Founding member of the AKP Party 1991: Elected to Parliament : Served as Prime Minister : Served as Foreign Minister

President Abdullah Gül
Voters back plan to have presidents elected by, popular vote rather than Parliament Nominated presidential candidate in 2007 by, Prime Minister Erdoğan May Gül’s first bid for presidency was blocked by Constitutional Court over his secular views and past membership in the Welfare Party. August Gül was elected as the 11th President, after the AKP party won control of the Parliament Gül was the first openly devout Muslim President in modern Turkish history

Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi Developed out of the Welfare Party by, Abdullah Gül and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 1997 They did not want their party to be solely based on Islam- they wanted to focus on democratic ideals Approach appealed to a much wider audience Fairly new to the political game in 2002, the party was able to gain an absolute majority in the Parliament by taking advantage of the economic crisis of The party is viewed with suspicion by some segments of the electorate, since they have strong Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to lean toward Islamic based ideals. Other important political parties include: Justice and Development Party, AKP; Peace and Democracy Party, BDP; Grand Unity Party, BPP; Republican People's Party, CHP; Democratic Party, DP; Democratic Left Party, DSP; Equality and Democracy party, EDP; National Movement Party, MHP; Freedom and Solidarity Party, ODP; Felicity Party, SP; Turkey Party, TP

Justice and Development Party (AKP)
AKP has clear Islamic roots Party founded by Erdoğan Came to power in 2002 The main election promise was to gain EU status Only party in Turkish history to win 3 elections Has been considered moderate pro-Western party Favored a moderate approach to religious tolerance In recent times the party has evolved to become more steeped in Islamic traditions Embraces Capitalism Party's agenda is conservative capitalism Their approach is often called Political Islam

AKP Political Goals To accomplish social reforms the AKP in established two primary goals* Instituted democratic social reforms that were more in line with EU standards which appealed to the Turkish underclass With these democratic reforms EU membership appeared more likely which also earned Erdogan support from Business Academic Middle Class In addition, other reforms were instituted in line with EU memberships guidelines Reform of the Judicial system Civil relations to the military Human rights

AKP Consolidating Power
To consolidate these political gains the AKP leaders established policies of reform that appealed to the masses such as: Social reforms Creating a national agreement to address Health care Housing Education Increased improvised infrastructure Minority rights Refused to challenge secularism Accepted secularism and decided to work with the secularist Created reforms to address the failing economy

AKP Consolidating Power continued
The party has been at odds with the military and Judicial branch over secularism Won the popular vote in 2011 by almost ½ and its 3rd consecutive election The party also consolidated its authority over the military Many senior military staffers resigned or retired early Some active duty generals were jailed for plotting against the government Has no problems in relations with the US

Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK)
Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK) known in English as the Kurdistan Workers Party Formed to win rights to develop an independent Kurdish state One of the world’s largest “stateless” populations Approximately 30 million Kurds live between Turkey, Iraq, Syria and parts of Armenia Today their goal is to have self-rule within a Turkish state Labeled as a terrorist group by the US government and Turkey with approximately 3-5,000 members Turkey views the group as a direct threat to their national security Turkey has lifted their ban on speaking Kurdish, and allows them some broadcasting capabilities Some cultural expressions are still forbidden by the state Source: Bruno, G. (2007). Inside the kurdistan workers party (pkk). Council on Foriegn Relations, Retrieved from If Turkey goes radical will the US attempt to make diplomatic relations with PKK?

Executive Branch Executive:
President direct election- 5 year term Cabinet- Council of ministers, the Prime Minister appointed by the President from members of Parliament Chief of State: President Abdullah GÜL, elected August 28th, 2007 Head of Government: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ERDOĞAN appointed by the President in March 2003 No term limits Note: Highlighted names are key political figures

Transparency, Accountability & Corruption
The graph on the following slide will outline some of the issues that are facing the current administration in Turkey Higher values are indicative of better governance. Rank is an average between the lower and upper percentiles Turkey’s governance falls between the lower percentile countries and the median percentile.

Transparency and Corruption
"Political Stability and Absence of Violence and Terrorism" is a serious problem for Turkey, indicating that the state is in a vulnerable position. The risk of a potential violent upheaval seems to be high according to this data set.

Legislative Branch Unicameral Grand National Assembly of Turkey
550 seats Members elected by popular vote every five years Closed List Proportional electoral system Does not allow citizens to directly choose candidates, rather they vote for the party of their choice and the party wins a percentage of seats based on the number of votes Last elections held June 2011 Percentage of Vote, by party AKP-49.8% CHP-25.9 MHP-13 Independents-6.6 Other-4.7

Legislature No codes of conduct Low integrity, leads to lack of trust in government The law for the most part is in place- however in practice nepotism, cronyism, and patronage take center stage. Fagan, C. (2011). Eu anti-corruption requirements: Measuring progress in albania, kosovo, fyr macedonia, and turkey. Transparency International, (p. 9). Retrieved July 8, 2013 from website: archive.transparency.org/content/download/61620/98 7345/CIMAP_For Web.pdf

Judiciary: Independent Civil Law
Judicial Branch Judiciary: Independent Civil Law Consists of 5 judicial bodies Constitutional Court Responsible for constitutional review in all legal matters Also functions as the Supreme Criminal Court High Court of Appeals Examines rulings by lower court bodies Council of State Reviews rulings by administrative courts Court of Accounts Responsible for auditing all Turkish government fiscal matters Military High Court of Appeals Reviews rulings by military courts Military High Administrative court Exercises jurisdiction over military personnel Secondary Resources Secondary resource

Judiciary Lack of transparency Court decisions are only open to the subject involved and their representation. High Board of Judges and Prosecutors Created to act as independent judicial review- not open to public review or any other control mechanism Fagan, C. (2011). Eu anti-corruption requirements: Measuring progress in albania, kosovo, fyr macedonia, and turkey. Transparency International, (p. 7). Retrieved July 8, 2013 from website: archive.transparency.org/content/download/61620/98 7345/CIMAP_For Web.pdf

Turkey- Candidate Country for Membership in the European Union (EU)
Turkey would benefit from economic advantages associated with trade within EU, as well as direct funding from the EU budget for overall economic prosperity (see graph) Turkey’s involvement with European integration dates back to 1959 Ankara Association Agreement (1963) for the progressive establishment of a Customs Union (1995) EU declared Turkey eligible for membership bid in 1997

EU Candidacy continued
Turkey must make fundamental changes that will affect all sectors of the country, defined by EU body of law (the acquis) 2006- EU expressed concern over restrictions on the free movement of goods Unresolved problems/obstacles to membership: Armenia, (Armenian Genocide) Kurdish question Cyprus issue Turkey’s focus on the Middle East and the pro- Islamic background of the AKP may lead to a pan- Islamic movement, jeopardizing EU membership Aquis- grouped into 35 chapters EU concerned over means to transport goods- Turkey had committed by signing the Additional Protocol to the Ankara Agreement. Without a solution, EU suspended negotiations on eight chapters relevant to Turkey’s restrictions with regard to the Republic of Cyprus foreign policy- “zero problems with neighbors”

The Refugee Problem Syrian Refugees
Sunni Syrians are fleeing their war-torn country Border towns in Turkey welcomed refugees There are growing frustrations with their presence and growing numbers Approximately, half a million Syrian refugees in Turkey Number continues to grow Border guards are pushing back thousands of refugees daily The cost is now hitting the $1 billion dollar mark for the country Local Turks complain rents are going up and wages are being driven down by the Syrian presence

The Refugee Problem Continued
Syrian Refugees Cultural and religious differences are igniting in many border towns Reyhanli Antakya May 11, violence against the growing Syrian population peaked in Reyhanli 53 people were killed in a twin car bomb attack

The Refugee Problem continued
Detailed illustrations showing influx of refugees United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2013, May). Refugee crisis worsens. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Gulf News:

Scenario The succeeding sections of the analysis will be dedicated to exploring the possible implications of the following questions: If and when Turkey is taken over by extremists factions, what will be the consequences to United States’ interest in this region of the world?

Civil War/ Internal Violence
Socio-political Cleavages Ethnic Groups Turkish 70-75% Kurdish 18% Other 7-12% Rich v. Poor Rural v. Urban Modern v. Traditional Religious v. Secular

Civil War/ Internal Violence
Islamic Roots could invite extreme groups Muslim Brotherhood or Al-Qaeda Encourage violence in the state Syrian border violence would increase Border towns would see increased levels of violence May spread through the country like a plague Erdoğan or the extreme group that takes over may increase rhetoric Encourage these cleavages to turn on each other Resulting in violent uprisings from all sides of the country

Sever Ties with Western Democracy
If extremist elements, such as radical Islamic groups, take control of Turkey the results could be detrimental to political diplomacy efforts between the more westernized democracies Groups that could be impacted European Union NATO We may see a political realignment in terms of strengthened partnership with countries like Iran

Unbridled Invasion Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
Recognized by Turkey alone UN established a buffer zone between north and south Southern Cyprus is a member of the EU Turkey has begun encroaching on southern Cyprus territory Exploratory gas drilling off the coast- The gas lies within the Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Tensions are on the rise as ethnic differences become center-stage for dispute

Consequences If extremist elements were to take over Turkey the fragile relationship between Cyprus and Turkey would be shattered Ethnic cleavages would encourage internal dispute The drive for natural resources would push extremist- Turkey to take control of the country

Consequences United States based company, Noble Energy has taken the lead to help southern Cyprus with drilling This oil would aid not only Cyprus’ economy and geopolitical positioning but also the United States and the European Union The United States would most assuredly wish to act to protect their investments and a fellow democratic state • Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) •Cyprus made a deal with Israel in defiance of Turkey concerning oil development •Turkey believes this deal is in violation of their rights in Northern Cyprus • Leads to potential political alignment with Israel •Political and military consequences for Israel with more solid flyover air space abilities •Tensions in this region will increase- potential for conflict grows

Consequences Civil war in Turkey would seriously damage regional economies including close allies to the United States like- Israel Turkey serves as a strategic access point to the Middle East for both the US and NATO Internal fracture would hurt the US and their ability to access this very important region in the Middle East Turkey has long served as an example to many Muslim countries in the area Their fall could create more strife/chaos throughout the region

Consequences Resulting in loss of European Union bid
Turkey has already threatened to sever ties with the EU on multiple occasions Cyprus and Israel differences Turkey’s leadership has become defensive toward the EU in regards to their response to protests If extreme elements take power in Turkey, they may continue this trend and sever all ties with the EU NATO membership may be called into question During the Georgia War, Turkey began to move away from NATO and toward becoming a more solitary power If an extremist element took power, they may distance themselves from organizations like this citing philosophical differences

Consequences Turkey may turn to political alignment with Iran, which would impact US relationship Up until 2011 Turkey and Iran had a productive relationship Ties became strained because of differences in opinion Arab Spring NATO Rising regional competition Iran refused to discuss nuclear issues This could easily be reversed especially if Turkey severs ties with the EU and NATO. The regional partnership would be a threat to democracy in the region I

Presented by, Darcy Pitkin and Kyle Leisner
Economic Presented by, Darcy Pitkin and Kyle Leisner Agenda Summary Key Economic Indicators Predictions What If Scenario Supporting History Economic Organization Consequences

Economic SummaryCurrent Concerns
Turkey continues to be denied full membership into the EU May 2013, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced intentions to taper $85 billion in bonds that they buy each month. This will leave countries with high-current-account deficits like Turkey particularly vulnerable. May 2013, the Lira hit its lowest value against the U.S. dollar in 17 months

Economic SummaryCurrent Concerns
Political unrest, citizen protest can reduce foreign confidence with future investment considerations Since the demonstrations started, the Istanbul stock market is down 10 percent and interest rates are up about 50 percent. PM Erdoğan’s paranoia concerning the protests have caused him to accuse Koç for conspiring with protesters. His claims that Koç “cooperated with terrorists” could reduce their continued substantial investment in the nation.

Economic Key Indicators
Key economic indicators • Economic growth rate is declining • A departure from the boom over last ten years • Private sector borrowing is heavy in 2013 • Indicator of some concern over near future government control of the economy • Suspected increase in use of the Hawala system • Decrease in Turkish stock market • Down 10% this year • Government alienation of the secular private sector • Erdogan’s accusations of terrorism towards Koc Holding Company 1.Decline in economic growth is measured from pre Erdogan 1990 to present 2013 Stats on slide 69 2.Private sector has increased Borrowing, in March of 2013 Turkeys Private sector foreign Debt was 202 million, up from the previous month, total debt currently 38.5billion 3.Suspected increase of the Hawalas system cannot be predicted due to the nature of the system, almost no records are kept, it is noted that an increase in Hawala usage occurs during time of conflict and political discord 4.Istanbul stock market decreased by 10% and Interest rates are up 50% 5.Government influence in the Private sector, Erdogan accusing KOC of terrorism could mean sanctions against the company, fine or loss of business, since KOC represents 6% of total economic output and they have lost 17% since the riots could indicate they are concerned about Erdogan’s policies especially since Turkey has a history of prosecuting companies for suspected anti-government activities ● Resources Secondary

Economy in an Extremist Turkey Predictions
If Turkey were to become an extremist, radical Islamic nation: Turkey’s economy would face: Tourism decline Withdrawal of international borrowing/investment Inability to pay existing loans/debt problems Halt to oil transport development Loss of trade agreements EU Isolation Decline of Koç United States economy would face: Termination of trade partnership Loss of oil access opportunities Imposition of economic sanctions to Turkey and other supporter nations Strengthening of Iran/Turkey/Russia strategic bond

What if Turkey becomes extremist
Tourism Turkey’s tourism industry will decline Tourism in Egypt dropped 37% during Islamic rule, a total loss of $5 million in revenue 378,000 U.S. residents visited Turkey in 2011, that number will drop substantially U.S. Department of State will issue travel warning advising of potential safety concerns and/or terrorist threats. Radical Islamic rule will likely bring bans to alcohol and the summer attire that westerners seek on a vacation. Tourism is a major source of hard cash

What if Turkey becomes extremist Continued
Debt Default of Private Sector debt (U.S. & European) lenders $431 billion net external debt which accounts for 51% of GDP $221 billion in borrowing this year alone Several of the international loans are short-term If Turkey becomes extremist, these lenders can leave quickly and not return. Result: currency crisis, collapse of property market and a threat to the stability of Turkey’s banks.

What if Turkey becomes extremist Continued
Hawala Usage Hawala use increases during conflict situations where central authority is either non-existent or weak In a radical Turkey, government distrust and a desire to avoid the government reporting requirements of formal financial institutions will heighten Turkey’s formal financial institutions will experience an economic decline from decreased lending The use of Hawalas for financing terrorist financing will increase The Hawala system will continue to be used for Iran/Turkey transactions out of the eyes of the U.S. Hawalas grew following the partition of India, the Vietnam War, Somalia, & Afghanistan

EconomicGeneral Statistics
National Budget: Revenues: $179.9 Billion Expenditure: $200.4 Billion -2.6% Deficit Gross Domestic Product $ Trillion Ranked 17th in the World Major Economic Sectors: Service: 63% of GDP Industry: 28.1% of GDP Agriculture: 8.9% of GDP (2012 estimated)

Economic Labor Force Statistics
Labor Force Demographics: Overall Labor Force: Million People Unemployment Rate: 9% (2012 estimate) Labor Force Rate Per Sector: Services: 48.4 % Industry: 26.2% Agriculture: 25.5% (2010 estimate)

EconomicSector Outputs
Primary Agricultural Outputs Primary Industrial Outputs tobacco, cotton, grain, olives, sugar beets, hazelnuts, pulses, citrus, livestock Primary Service Outputs tourism, wholesale and retail trade, transport, financial services, education, healthcare, real estate. textiles, food processing, autos, electronics, mining (coal, chromate, copper, boron), steel, petroleum, construction, lumber, paper

Economic Sector Outputs
Agricultural Output Turkey is the world leader in the production of dried figs, hazelnuts, sultanas/raisins and dried apricots. Turkey has the largest milk and dairy production in its region The total exports of agricultural products (including processed foods) reached $12 billion in 2010 Agricultural Output Goals by 2023 $150 billion agricultural GDP $40 billion in agricultural exports Becoming one of the top 5 countries in terms of agricultural production Ranking number 1 in fisheries as compared with the EU Jay-Does Turkey make enough agri goods to support itself?

Tourism as a Service Output Turkey ranked the 7th and 6th most visited country in the world respectively in 2009 and 2010. Turkey received $21.3 billion of tourism revenue in 2009, and $20.8 billion in 2010. Tourism Goals for 2023 Be among the top five countries in the world in terms of attracting the highest number of tourists and receiving the highest amount of tourism revenue

Petroleum/Oil as an Industry Output Turkey only produces approximately 270 million barrels from the Hakkari Basin (2011) National consumption was approximately 706,000 barrels per day 90% of their oil is imported May have other reserves in the Black Sea TPAO ( Turkey’s National Petroleum Organization) is working with Exxon (U.S.) and Petrobras (Brazil) to explore Koç owned Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri (TUPRS) will also construct a new $2.7 billion unit upgrade in November at its Izmit plant that will cut the country’s fuel-import bill by $1 billion a year and allow its four refineries to work at 90% of capacity. Jay-If Turkey went radical how would the infrastructure for supporting the refineries be affected? since Exxon is helping

Turkey plays a bigger role as a conduit of oil Is considered the crossroads of oil between the east and west as well as the north and south Significant volumes of Russian and Caspian oil are being sent by tanker via the Turkish Straits to Western markets A terminal on Turkey's Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan facilitates oil exports from northern Iraq via a pipeline from Kirkuk and from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline Several bypass routes for Caspian oil via the Bosporus Straits have been proposed in Turkey

Turkey: Crossroads of Oil The proposed and existing pipelines, ports of entry and transportation routes for oil in Turkey Kandiyoti, R. (2011, January). Pipeline chess across the black sea. Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Le Monde diplomatique (English Edition):

Nabucco pipeline Western/U.S. Oil/Gas Interests: European Union-backed 3,300-kilometer (pipeline between Turkey and Austria scheduled for completion by 2014. Designed to transport up to 193 billion barrels of gas annually. Will increase gas supply to Europe independent, of Russia; expand the Southern Corridor capacity; and possibly transport abundant Turkmen gas to Europe, onto the United States. Çimen, S. (2009, June 1). Energy and energy security: Turkey's role. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from American Turkish Council: Çimen, S. (2009, June 1). Energy and energy security: Turkey's role. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from American Turkish Council:

Economic Debt Overall Public Debt Rate: 40.4% of GDP
Was approximately 78% of GDP when PM Erdoğan came to power in 2003. Turkey currently has no outstanding debt to the International Monetary fund. In 2002 owed IMF $23.5 billion Made final payment to IMF in May 2013 for a $412 million loan. Turkey’s private sector has began to borrow heavily. Current net external debt is for private sector $413 billion, or nearly 51% of the country’s GDP.

Economic Hawala Hawala = Trust in Arabic
Traditional Islamic method of exchanging money used frequently in Turkey A funds transfer system based on personal trust-no receipts, no audit trails, no banks A money transfer without money movement Registration is often required but most operate on the black market. In Turkey from , 17% of transfers went unrecorded Is used as a channel for terrorist financing, money laundering, drug trafficking This system is also used by 40% of Turkish exports to Iran This method used by Turkish businessmen called “Anatolian Tigers” circumvent the formal data tracked by U.S. relating to sanctions for supporting Iran.

Economic Economic Timeline
1990’s-Economic Turmoil (series of coalition governments with weak economic policies, leading to high-inflation & boom-and-bust cycles) 2001-Economic Recession (deep economic downturn , GNP fell 9.5% in 2001, and unemployment significantly increased) 2001 recession is most likely the reason AKP came to power

Economic Economic Timeline
2001-May Steady Growth good monetary and fiscal policies and structural economic reforms made with the support of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) % Average Economic Growth, one of the highest sustained rates of growth in the world. Recent Growth Rates: 2010, % Economic Growth 2012-2% Economic Growth % Economic Growth (estimated)

Economic Foreign Investment/Trade
Central Intelligence Agency. (2013, May 15). The World Factbook: Turkey. Retrieved July 2, 2013, from CIA.gov:

EconomicForeign Investment/Trade
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Investment Support and Promotion Agency. (2013). Invest in turkey. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from The Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry - Investment Support and Promotion Agency:

Economic Foreign Investment/Trade
Turkey ranks as the world’s 13th most attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2012, according to the A.T. Kearney FDI Confidence Index. Has Bilateral Investment Agreements with 82 Countries Country remains heavily dependent upon capital inflows (foreign investment) Foreign investor confidence is key for continued economic growth for the nation Indicator

Economic Foreign Investment/Trade Continued
Has a Customs Union Agreement with the EU Not a full member of the EU Has Trade/Cooperation Agreements with 28 Countries Has Free Trade Agreements with 29 countries Bullet 2 They include: Afghanistan, Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Israel, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Russian Federation, South Korea, Syria, Thailand, Ukraine, Uruguay, Yemen Bullet 3 They include: Albania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Chile, Croatia, EFTA member countries (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, South Korea, Macedonia, Montenegro, Morocco, Palestine, Serbia, Syria, Tunisia

Economic U.S. Investment & Trade Relations
Turkey has several bilateral investment and tax treaties in place, some of which are with the United States, Guarantee free repatriation of capital in convertible currencies and eliminate double taxation. Ex. FSECC (Framework for Strategic Economic & Commercial Cooperation )-Formed in 2009 , U.S. exports to Turkey increased 106% U.S. FDI in Turkey nearly tripled (385 million to 1.4 billion)

Over 1,200 U.S. companies now operate in Turkey – a 50% increase since 2007 Many new successful joint ventures between U.S. and Turkish firms. Are designed to manufacture innovative products in Turkey for both domestic production and export to third country markets. Examples: General Electric invested $900 million in 2012, AmGen made a $700 million acquisition 3M announced a $500 million project. Bullet 1 Recent U.S. investors: Cummins, Pratt and Whitney, AES, Dow, GE, 3M, AMGEN, and Pfizer (increasing private sector interest in Turkey)

Other Turkey/U.S. joint ventures: Near Zero Zone A Turkish project focused on cost-effective energy efficiency upgrades in which the U.S. has assisted with. U.S. provides technical training to industrial managers and has shared new efficiency technology. Movement to Enhance Opportunities & FATIH Project American company investment in education by bringing high speed internet access to classrooms. U.S. is also working with Turkey on improving healthcare, pharmaceuticals, information & communication technology, intellectual property rights, and agriculture.

Economic Role of Koç Holding Company
Largest company headquartered in Turkey Secularist operation The company operates in five main segments of Turkey’s industries: Energy Automotive Consumer Finance Other Accounts for 6% of Turkey’s economic output Energy:petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas, electricity and natural gas sectors Auto:production of commercial vehicles Consumer:manufacturing of white goods, televisions and air conditioners Finance:offering credit cards, factoring, leasing, asset management, brokerage services private pension funds and life and nonlife insurance, Other: tourism, agriculture and food

Economy in an Extremist Turkey U.S. Oil Interests
Consequences U.S. will lose access to Turkey’s oil transportation capabilities Nabucco pipeline construction will likely cease A Turkey will likely strengthen oil ties with Iran & Russia, the United States will lose out on Turkey’s strategic link to this scarce resource. Turkey currently maintains strong oil ties with Radical Islamic nations or Islam friendly nations 44% of its oil is imported from Iran 40% of its oil is imported from Russia Construction of Gazprom-backed South Stream gas pipeline through Turkey-supported by Russia

Economy in an Extremist Turkey
U.S. Sanctions Under legislation signed by President Barack Obama in December 2011, the U.S. will take action against countries that continue buying large volumes of Iranian oil Turkey, a major purchaser of Iran’s oil, was granted exemption from this sanction. If Turkey becomes an extremist nation, the exemption will likely lifted by the U.S. U.S. will cut off the financial institutions in these countries from the U.S. banking system. They were granted an extension on this exemption in June and December 2012. This will cause financial problems to Turkey’s private sector who heavily relies upon international borrowing and investment.

Economy in an Extremist Turkey U.S. Investment/Trade Relations
If Turkey becomes an extremist Islamic nation the U.S. may cease their economic relationship with them. $1.4 billion in FDI by the U.S. potentially will disappear. FSECC to facilitate trade relations will discontinue Elimination of imports and exports between nation Withdrawal of U.S. corporate investment (1,200 companies including 3M, GE, Pfizer…) No collaboration on industrial & technological improvement (Near zero zone) No investment in social improvements (FATIH)

Economy in an Extremist Turkey EU Interests
Turkey’s desire for full EU admission would be denied. Possible revocation of EU Customs Agreement WIthdrawal of Major Western European trade agreements. Italy, Germany, UK, France Threat of U.S. sanctions may cause other EU members less sensitive to extremist nation relations to pull out of trade agreements.

Economy in an Extremist Turkey Impact on Koç Hold Company
Koç Holding Company accounts for 6% of Turkey’s total economic output. Secular corporation. Accused by Erdogan of “cooperating with terror” and supporting the liberal protesters. Koç in an extremist Turkey may face major business declines, boycotts and even prosecution. Koç’s shares dropped 17% during month of protests, will continue to decline in an extremist state. Turkey has a history of prosecuting and fining corporations for “anti-government” conspiracies. Koç could be next victim. Koç’s financial collaborations with U.S. corporations (Ford) would end. Koc kuwait Oil Company

Economy in an Extremist Turkey Conclusions
It is likely that Turkey’s economy will collapse as an extremist nation. 10 years of economic growth will be undone Revenue from tourism and oil transportation will be reduced Foreign direct investment will disappear Secular corporations (foreign and domestic) will leave Debt will go unpaid Poverty and starvation will increase Turkey lacks the industrial and agricultural resources to be self-sufficient.

Presented by, Ekow Ocran and Enzi Jaureguui
MILITARY Presented by, Ekow Ocran and Enzi Jaureguui Agenda Summary Key Military Indicators Predictions What-If Scenario Supporting History Turkish Military Organization Consequences

Military Summary The primary role of the military in Turkey is to maintain and protect the secular ideology founded by, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk The Turkish political/military relationship is a unique situation since the military's responsibility is to safeguard against internal struggle. If one party comes to power and attempts to change the secular ideals of Kemalism, the military will step in and remove the leader (military coup) Once the military overthrows the leader, the military will return governmental authority to the person they have chosen* *When the military installs a political figure they usually choose one with secular ideals The Military's role is to protect the secular and democratic republic created by Atatürk. That means that when the principles of secularism are threatened or when the country descends into chaos, it is the role of the military to step in and restore order. Atatürk founded a modern democratic state by forging the entirely unprecedented notion in the Islamic world of a secular Turkish identity. Moreover, this identity was to be based on the Western notion of loyalty to a geographic entity rather than religious solidarity.

Military Summary Continued
One of the largest standing militaries in NATO with the exception of the US Key member of NATO due to strategic location and geopolitical atmosphere Hosts US and NATO bases Military industrial complex has evolved and is now capable of producing its own armaments, but prefers to co-produce items with other nations Israel France Germany South Korea

Most conflicts involved acting in conjunctive effort with world powers- US, UN, NATO Last major contribution Korea 1950 Involved fighting domestic terrorism PKK Only military involvement acted on independently Cyprus 1974 Considered major ally in War on Terror

Overall Military budget cut almost in half since 2000 Military expenditures saw a steady decrease Increased Military expenditures slightly Top military commander Necdet Özel Appointed by Erdoğan Supports Islamic ideology Initiated many military coups 1960 1972 1980 1997

Key Military Indicators
Continued AKP infiltration of pro-Islamic military officers into current ranks Continued persecution of military officers in authority to direct a coup Ongoing demonstrations concerning US military bases Concerning the expulsion of US bases Gradual overall decline in military budget Reduced military expenditures 1. Some refer to these Military officers as “Fethullahist” after Abdulla Gulen who through his wealth is capable of sending future military officers to military schools resulting in them becoming pro-Islamic Source Secondary APA:Sharon-Krespin, R. (2009). Fethullah Gülen’s Grand Ambition Turkey’s Islamist Danger. Retrieved from 2. This seems to be the trend, if you're not aligned with Erdogan you get arrested, easy to do since the Judicial branch is under Erdogan’s control APA:Taspinar, O. (2012). Turkey: The New Model? Retrieved from 3. Demonstrations over US bases in Turkey, no doubt these will become more prolific as time passes, Erdogan may seem pro-western but there are doubts! 4. Military's budget has been slashed by almost 50% since 2002 5. Military expenditures have seen a steady decline

Predictions Turkish and Cyprus conflict will increase tensions throughout the region Involvement of NATO into conflict Loss of NATO membership Possibility of open conflict with NATO countries Loss of membership Voluntarily or forced Turkish Military Coup Resulting in interim government Possibility of disrupting stability and growth More pressure on US military bases Violence will ignite near and around military bases stemming out of protests The US military will be forced out of country

Predictions Continued
Civil war will cause more problems with the PKK PKK will become more bold and violent Kurdish PKK may try to declare independence US may choose to actively assist the PKK Turkey and Iran will become allies Both countries will have fundamental Islamic governments in power This will cut off Europe from the Middle East. This will lead to the possibility of a known terrorists group having a country of their own If the United States chooses to actively assist the PKK with their efforts there is the possibility of destabilization efforts inside Turkish territory. In order to do this the US will have to remove them as a known terrorist group to give aid.

What if extremists come to power in Turkey?
What-If Scenario What if extremists come to power in Turkey? Possible loss of strategic NATO ally NATO bases may be removed or lost completely European security will be jeopardized Regional military stabilization efforts will be affected Regional projection of U.S. military power will be curtailed Loss of strategic U.S. military bases on Turkish soil War on Terror will be affected Missile defense shield

What if extremists come to power in Turkey?
What-If Scenario What if extremists come to power in Turkey? Turkish-Cyprus conflict Israel may align militarily with Cyprus NATO military involvement on Cyprus' behalf Military cooperation with Israel will be affected Loss of Israeli military's ability to fly over Turkish airspace

Identification of key military assets for U.S. Interests
NATO: NATO Patriot missile batteries- Adana Command center for missile defense radar: Diyarbakir Missile defense radar location- Kurecik base Partnership for Peace Training center Command Center of Excellence-Defense Against Terrorism Allied Lan- Izmir U.S. Incirlik Air Base U.S. Office of Defense Cooperation U.S. is involved in all of NATO's interests as well For US assets Turkey maintains rights to cancel access to Incirlik with 3 days notice

US Air Bases Izmir Air Base
Major strategic military hub for strategic projection of US Air power in the Middle East Joint US Turkish Base Supports major US assets 425th Air Base Squadron NATO CC 6th Allied Tactical Air Force Military bases in turkey. (n.d.). Retrieved July 6, 2013, from MilitaryBases.com:

US Air Bases Incirlik Air Base
Second Major US military hub for strategic projection of US airpower in the Middle East Under joint US and Turkish control Major US military assets 39th Air Base Wing 728th Air Mobility Squadron 385th Air Expeditionary Group Military bases in turkey. (n.d.). Retrieved July 6, 2013, from MilitaryBases.com:

US and NATO Bases in Turkey
Zanotti, J. (2013, June 21). Turkey: Background and u.s. relations. Retrieved July 12, 2013 from The Federation of American Scientists:

Turkish Military Budget
Military expenditures have shown a steady decrease Note the steady decline from 2000 to 2005, almost by half Gürleyen, I., Sinav, G., Şimşek, R., Karabiyik, S., & Tanriöven, A. (2008). Turkey - eu relations. (p. 6). Retrieved July 15, 2013, from European Union Research and Application Center: Izmir University of Economics:

Turkish Military Budget
Military expenditures remained steady at 2.5% of GDP Sönmez, M. (2013, April 27). Can the peace process cut the high security budget? Retrieved July 16, 2013, from Hurriyet Daily News: urity-budget.aspx?PageID=238&NID=45740&NewsCatID=344

Recent decline in foreign aid request
Turkish Foreign Aid Recent decline in foreign aid request Decline is almost 1/2 previous requests Possible indication Turkish government is trying to free itself from foreign influence Source Secondary APA: Zanotti, J. (2013). Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations (7-5700). Washington, DC: Government Printing Office. Zanotti, J. (2013, June 21). Turkey: Background and u.s. relations. (p. 23). Retrieved July 12, 2013, from The Federation of American Scientists:

Turkish Military Organization Supreme Command
Abdullah Gül Supreme Military Commander Turkish President İsmet Yılmaz Minister of National Defense Appointed 6 July 2011 by, Prime Minister Erdoğan Member of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) Has same religious ideology (Islam) as Erdoğan

Turkish Military Organization Supreme Command Continued
Necdet Özel Commander of the Turkish military Chief of the General Staff Came to power after previous military purge Appointment "marks the end of an era during which top military commanders saw themselves as self-appointed guardians of the regime"

Turkish Military CompositionContinued
Troop Strength Active Military Personnel: 510,000 Reserve Personnel: 378,700 Paramilitary Personnel: 152,200 Service Branches Turkish Army Turkish Air Force Turkish Navy Turkish Coast Guard **TO be fair they are using things like M16A1 Rifles which are quite old. They would be peer against another single NATO ally but they would not be as successful against the whole of NATO or the US alone //DJR Globalfirepower.com. (2012, December 4). Turkey maintains one of the largest militaries on the asian continent. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Global Fire Power:

Turkish Military compositionContinued
Land Systems Armor including tanks and armored fighting vehicles mostly modern equipment Total armour strength approx. 12,000 Artillery Including Self-Propelled, towed and MLRS Mostly modern Total Artillery approx 3000 Logistical Vehicles: 23,691 Air Power Total Aircraft: 1,512 Helicopters: 570 Military is considered modern: Inventory includes T-129 Attack helicopter, AH-1WSuperCobra, Leopard 2A4 Battle tank. Many prototypes and future procurements as well: Atlay Battle tank, Rokestan Cirit Air-to-Surface Laser Guided Rocket, OMTAS/UMTAS Anti-tank guided missile, MPT Assault Rifle, MKEK T-50 Assault rifle. Naval Forces include 13 Submarines, 20 frigates and more. Airforce has F-16's and is looking to purchase F-35's. Globalfirepower.com. (2012, December 4). Turkey maintains one of the largest militaries on the asian continent. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Global Fire Power:

Turkish Military OrganizationContinued
Naval Power Total Strength: 183 Aircraft Carriers: 0 Frigates: 17 Destroyers: 0 Corvettes: 7 Submarines: 14 Coastal Craft: 43 Mine Warfare: 20 Amphibious Assault: 45 Logistical Labor Force: 26,690,000 Merchant Marine Strength: 629 Major Ports and Terminals: 9 Roadway Coverage: 352,046 Serviceable Airports: 98 Globalfirepower.com. (2012, December 4). Turkey maintains one of the largest militaries on the asian continent. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Global Fire Power:

Turkish Defense Industry
Turkey's economic and military industrial complex was traditionally insufficient to produce sophisticated weapons like those of Western Europe AKP's priority is to emphasize development of Turkey's domestic arms industry The Turkish defense industry Employs ~50,000 at 110 firms Most are state owned About 1,000 additional firms are subcontracted

Turkish Defense Industry Continued
Makina ve Kimya Endustrisi Kurumu (MKEK) Controlled by Ministry of Industry and Trade 12,000 employees Largest producer of weaponry in Turkey MKEK meets the requirements of the Turkish armed forces for light arms Including the M-3 and MG-3 rifles which are of German design Ammunition and explosives Producer of antiaircraft and antitank guns

Turkish Defense Industry Continued
Most domestically produced military projects are made in cooperation with allied foreign nations Local development of defense items is preferred Ankara prefers co-development agreements Turkey's domestic tank relies on a co-production deal with South Korea's Hyundai The attack helicopter is a co-production agreement with AgustaWestland

Noted Discontent Over U.S. Bases
Previous discord between US and Turkish areas of interest has resulted in strained relationships Turkey has demonstrated control using U.S. Turkish bases as leverage for political purposes Key areas of concern Turkish- Cyprus conflict Turkish government decided to close down all the American bases on its territory Only two active US bases remain US-Turkish jointly controlled Izmir Incirlik Turkey will revoke US military agreements, which will effectively force them to evacuate the country- The agreement does stipulate however, that Turkey must issue a minimum of a three day warning prior to the forced shutdown. There is also the scenario where the US leaves voluntarily (in reference to Turkish invasion of Cyprus.)

Turkish-Cyprus Conflict
Major issue affecting U.S. and Turkish relationship if Turkey becomes radicalized Israel May align militarily with Cyprus Recently become intertwined in oil dealings with Cyprus Turkey believes they have claim to this resource If Turkey becomes radical Israeli and Turkish relationship may suffer and ultimately resort to military action NATO Loss of Turkey may result in NATO military action on behalf of Cyprus

Turkish Conflicts: 1952-1974 1952- Turkey joined NATO
Thereby abandoning Kemalists' neutrality policy 20 July Turkish troops invade Cyprus Invasion justified as peacekeeping operation Claimed need to restore constitutional order was disrupted due to Greek military coup There was a ceasefire 3 days after invasion Turkish military occupied 3% of Cyprus 14 August Turkish military mounts another offensive despite talks being held in Geneva Military increased hold on Cyprus to 37%

Turkish Conflicts: 1990- Turkey allows US- led coalition to launch air strikes from Turkish bases against Iraq Turkey amassed troops on the border with Iraq during the Gulf War Turkey allowed its airspace to be used by US and British forces after Gulf war March 2011-Turkish military engaged in Libyan crisis Provided a submarine, frigates, two tanker aircrafts and four F-16's under UN resolution 1973 May Turkish military is involved in Afghanistan under UN authorized mandate Committed 1,327 troops The PKK was founded in 1974 by, Abdulla Ocalan, formally named PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) in 1978 the group is largely composed of Turkish Kurds. The separatist guerrilla war resulted in approximately 30,000 casualties. Pike, J. (2004, 21). Federation of American Scientists. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Retrieved July 16, 2013, from

Turkey and the PKK The PKK and Turkey have a long history of internal conflict Attacks by the PKK PKK's primary targets Turkish Government security forces Local Turkish officials Villagers opposed to PKK Turkish tourist sites and hotels Kidnapped foreign tourists in early to mid-1990s in an attempt to damage Turkish tourist industry Turkish military Bullet #1 The PKK has always been a very big problem for Turkey, if there is civil war, it is highly likely the PKK will start attacking again and demanding independence PKK is approximately 4,000 to 5,000 in number, 3,000 to 3,500 located in Northern Iraq PKK operates in Turkey, Europe and the Middle East and has received safe haven and aid from Iran, Iraq and Syria. Bullet #2 They are believed to be responsible for dozens of bombings in Western Turkey through 2005 Pike, J. (2004, 21). Federation of American Scientists. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Retrieved July 16, 2013, from

Turkish Internal Conflicts: 1992-1999
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 1984- Launched separatist guerrilla war in southeast Turkey Main goal of PKK is to establish independent Kurdish state in southeast Turkey, northern Iraq and parts of Iran and Syria. 1992- Anti-PKK operation 20,000 Turkish troops enter Kurdish safe havens within Iraq Military intervention in Iraq was under an agreement with Saddam Hussein Pike, J. (2004, 21). Federation of American Scientists. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Retrieved July 16, 2013, from

Turkish Internal Conflicts: 1992-1999
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 1993- Turkish ceasefire with PKK broke down Conducted attacks on Turkish diplomatic and commercial facilities in European cities during 1993 and 1995 1995- Turkish military launched offensive against Kurds in Northern Iraq Approximately 35,000 Turkish troops were committed to the effort 1999- PKK leader Ocalan was captured, sentenced to death but later commuted to a life sentence After arrest, Ocalan started a peace initiative asking members to refrain from violence and maintain dialog with Turkish Government on PKK Issues Pike, J. (2004, 21). Federation of American Scientists. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Retrieved July 16, 2013, from

Turkish Conflicts: 2002-Present
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 2002 PKK changed their name to Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK) 2002 PKK committed to nonviolence 2003 PKK renamed itself to Kongra-Gel (KGK) conducted self-defense attacks and promoted peace June 2004 PKK's hard line militant wing renounced self-imposed cease-fire for the last 5 years January Turkish military launched air strikes on PKK targets in Northern Iraq 35 civilians were killed in the strikes Pike, J. (2004, 21). Federation of American Scientists. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Retrieved July 16, 2013, from

Coup d'etat 1960 and 1971 27 May 1960- Military initiated coup
Coup not from typical military hierarchy Initiated by junior grade officers Leader of the coup was General Cemal Gursel 1971- Military initiated coup Removed Turkish Prime Minister Suleyman Gundogdu Demire Commanders sent memorandum to President Sunay demanding a strong and credible government capable of putting an end to what they referred to as an anarchical situation Joining NATO made military personnel become more aware of the economic and technological backwardness of the army

Coup d'etat: 1980 and 1997 1980- Military initiated coup
Following political deadlock and civil unrest Imposed martial law Dissolved Turkish Parliament Revoked the constitution Shutdown all political parties 28 February 'Postmodern Coup' Military-dominated National Security Council issued a series of recommendations/ultimatums to the government on actions needed to "protect secularism then military overthrew the coalition government led by, Necmettin Erbakan The military demanded Erbakan to stop or reverse policies seen as promoting Islam in government affairs. Time and time again, when political parties overstep their bounds, the military steps in- this can be seen even in the Turkey of today Coup particulars Took 650,000 people in custody, tried 230,000 people and blacklisted 1,683,000, wanted the death penalty for 7000 people out of which 517 received the death penalty

Military Coup and Current Politics?
Implications involved with initiating a coup and the effects on the nations people The current administration even with their infiltration into the military ranks fail to recognize the tension that exists between themselves and the military and therefore fail to acknowledge the threat of a coup The Turkish military holds a significant amount of power They have already mounted several successful coups If they feel the need to act there is little the current administration can do to stop them Multiple sources have come out recently in reference to another possible coup, therefore: Daniel Dombey: “The move to amend the security forces’ internal service rules represents one of the final steps in the prime minister’s long battle to place Turkey’s once coup-prone military under firm civilian control.” “This is positive, because it prevents the military from finding any justification for getting involved in politics or meddling,” said Lale Kemal, a writer at Turkey’s Taraf newspaper.

How will Coup affect Current Politics?
Even though the politicians are installing high ranking officers in the military, that will not stop the military from acting: 27 May "Purging of Group 14" An internal confrontation within the army Several low-ranking military officers overthrew the government and purged high ranking military officers The "young officers" were still uneasy. This was followed by a "coup within the coup" six months later The military officers were sent into exile This shows that the military will act if they believe that it is necessary High ranking officers do not have supreme control, especially if the lower-ranked officers know they were placed in their position by politicians If the Purging of Group 14 confrontation had amounted to a clash, the purging would end up in a violent manner

Military’s Current Moral Crisis
During its first term in office, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) introduced several military reforms aimed at diminishing the military’s power in politics. Erdoğan has been slowly limiting Turkeys current military involvement in politics Further attempts to diminish the military’s power due to involvement in recent coups: "Thursday, June 6, a criminal court in Ankara approved an indictment filed by the Turkish prosecutor’s office retired military officers, including former senior commanders, and a civilian will be tried over charges of staging the "post-modern coup of Feb. 28, 1997.”

INTELLIGENCE / CYBER SECURITY
Presented by, Jeff Sperry and Brendan Kinchia Agenda Summary Key Intelligence Indicators Predictions What-If Scenario Identification of Key U.S. Interests Supporting History Intelligence Organization Threats Foreign Relations Consequences AGENDA, SUMMARY, INDICATORS, WHAT IF SCENARIO, SUPPORTING HISTORY

Intelligence Summary Modern Turkish Intelligence activities designed along American and NATO models Has joint Turkish-Israeli Intelligence gathering cooperation agreement Turkish intelligence agencies play a key role for the NATO alliance due to Strategic location Unique ability to Develop assets where the U.S cannot SIGNET-Signals Intelligence HUMINT-Human Intelligence Have recently increased intelligence cooperation with Iran Bullet #2 Unique since Turkey is Muslim

Intelligence and Cyber Indicators
Turkey's intelligence relationship with the US has cooled since 2004, primarily due to US support for the Kurdish PKK party Turkey recently established intelligence sharing capabilities with Iran in order to combat PKK terrorism Turkey provided US equipment to Iran

Intelligence Cooperation Predictions
Impact on SIGINT and HUMINT ability for U.S. in the Middle East Turkish Intent: Form strategic intelligence partnerships in the Middle East Seek opportunities to acquire intelligence on militant PKK activities Dependence on Iran and Russia for energy necessitates a close relationship Leverage geographic advantage and SIGINT strengths to build strong intelligence partnerships Loss of intelligence relationship with Israel due to differences in ideology Israeli jets may no longer be allowed to fly over Turkish airspace Turkish SIGINT capabilities along the Israeli flight path could be used against Israel

Intelligence Cooperation Predictions Continued
Turkey opts to cut off intelligence sharing and surveillance with U.S. and Israel Turkey will be an attractive intelligence ally in the Middle East due to geographic location and strong SIGINT capabilities Turkey's Intelligence relationship with Israel will suffer: Loss of intelligence sharing from Southern Syria Potential weakening of intelligence on Syrian PKK Loss of CIA assisted HUMINT capabilities along borders Turkey’s drone technology for surveillance and counter terrorism would evolve slower, if at all. Turkey’s drone technology for surveillance and counter terrorism will pick up slowly. Most of the drones that Turkey has are Israeli made. US has 678 known Drones in stock Israel has 26 known Drones in stock Turkey has 28 known Drones in stock

Intelligence Cooperation Predictions Continued
Turkey opts to continue intelligence sharing and surveillance with U.S. and Israel Tense relationship with CIA will likely worsen when working with a radicalized Turkey Expect Turkey to leverage its desirable intelligence capabilities to establish relationships with other radicalized countries in the Middle East Expect Turkey to continue secret intelligence relationships with other radicalized countries, deepening the CIA's distrust of the MIT.

Intelligence and Cyber What-If
If the Turkish government succumbs to extremist views, Intelligence and Cyber Security will be affected by: Loss of intelligence cooperation with U.S.-Israel Could impact Turkey's status with NATO Possible decrease awareness on Syria and their current conflict Possible decrease in HUMINT capabilities along Iran and Syria borders

Identification of U.S. Interests
Current SIGINT picture for U.S. in the Middle East SIGINT listening post established at GED headquarters in Gölbaşı (A, see map) SIGINT listening post in Iraqi Security Zone (B) Intelligence inter-dependence with Israel SIGINT intelligence sharing: Israel SIGINT closer to Iran Turkish SIGINT surrounding Syria The Iraqi Security Zone and the Turkish/Syrian border is the normal route for Israeli jets to fly over.

Identification of U.S. Interests Continued
Current HUMINT picture for U.S. in the Middle East Interviews along the borders with Syria and Iran provide HUMINT on militant PKK activities (C) & (D) CIA Interviews of Syrian defectors as they cross into Turkey provides HUMINT on the Syrian situation (C) Border with Iran provides HUMINT opportunities for CIA (D)

SIGINT / HUMINT focal points for U.S.
D A B

Turkey Intelligence and Cyber Security
Organizations primarily responsible for intelligence: National Intelligence Organization – MIT (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati) Primary State Intelligence procurement and handling organization Undersecretary of Public Order and Security – KDGM (Kamu Duzeni ve Guvenligi Mustesarligi) Domestic Intelligence analysis and dissemination organization Gendarmerie Intelligence Organization – JITEM (Jandarma Istihbarat Teskilati) Secret organization focused on counterterrorism Current existence and capabilities are unknown

Turkey Intelligence and Cyber Security
Organizations involved primarily with cybersecurity: Cyber Security Institute – SGE (Siber Güvenlik Enstitüsü) R&D Institute, part of TUBITAK National Research Institute of Electronics and Cryptology Computer Emergency Response Teams Information and Communication Technologies Authority – BTK (Bilgi İletişim ve Teknolojileri Kurumu) Cyber Army Command

Turkey Intelligence Background
History of Intelligence in Turkey Intelligence organizations date back to Ottoman Empire Early organization emulated intelligence services of European countries Modern-day activities follow American and NATO models Joint Israeli-Turkey intelligence sites along Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian borders

Intelligence Agencies throughout the Years
TESKILAT-I MAHSUSA (Special Organization) First intelligence organization Established on November 17, 1913 Dismantled after World War I, October 30, 1918. KARAKOL CEMIYETI (Police Guild) Established after Teskilat-I Mahsusa was dismantled Involved in the National Liberation War Provided arms, supplies and equipment to fight forces in Anatolia. TESKILAT-I MAHSUSA - First intelligence organization established on November 17, 1913 by Enver Pasha during the Ottoman Empire. Organization was dismantled after World War I following the Mondros Truce of October 30, This organization was used to suppress the Arab separatism and Western imperialism under the Ottoman Empire. KARAKOL CEMIYETI (Police Guild) – Organization was established after Teskilat-I Mahsusa was dismantled. The organization carried out important missions during the National Liberation War by providing arms, supplies and equipment to people and small armed groups to fight forces in Anatolia.

HAMZA GRUBU (Hamza Group) Established on September 23, 1920 Renamed Felah Grubu on August 31, 1921 Continued activities until end of the National Liberation War ASKER POLIS TESKILATI Founded by Turkish General Staff; July 18, 1920 Established to end chaos among the intelligence organizations, Dismantled on March 21, 1921. HAMZA GRUBU (Hamza Group) – Intelligence organization established on September 23, 1920 but changed their name to Felah Grubu (Felah Group) on August 31, Felah Group continued activities until end of the National Liberation War. ASKER POLIS TESKILATI (Military Police Organization - A.P or P) – Founded by Turkish General Staff on July 18, Organization was established to end chaos that were among the different intelligence organizations, countering the enemies espionage activities and propaganda infiltrating the army ranks. Organization was dismantled on March 21, 1921.

MUSELLAH MUDAFAA-I MILLIYE Armed National Defense Approved by Turkish Grand National Assembly; May 3, 1921 Consisted of an extensive network of spies a Dismantled on October 5, 1923. After foundation of Republic of Turkey, activities were carried out by intelligence Branches of Army Inspectorships until 1926. MILLI EMNIYET HIZMETI RIYASETI (MEH/MAH) Directorate of the National Security Service First Intelligence Organization for the Republic of Turkey Established on January 1, 1926 Year later, reorganized under the Ministry of Internal Affairs •MUSELLAH MUDAFAA-I MILLIYE (Armed National Defense) – Organization establishment was approved by Turkish Grand National Assembly on May 3, Organization consisted of an extensive network of spies and intelligence consisting of large cadre of military and civilian officers. Organization was dismantled on October 5, 1923. After dissolution of intelligence organizations and foundation of Republic of Turkey, activities were carried out by intelligence Branches of Army Inspectorships until 1926. MILLI EMNIYET HIZMETI RIYASETI (MEH/MAH) (Directorate of the National Security Service) - The first Intelligence Organization for the Republic of Turkey was established on January 1, On January 6, organization was put under the Ministry of Internal Affairs control.

National Intelligence Organization (MIT)
Image Sources: Defence-Point. (n.d.). MIT-Turkey.jpg. Retrieved July 16, 2013, from Defence-Point.gr:

MIT Organization Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Undersecretary of the MIT Dr. Hakan Fidan Deputy Undersecretary I. Intelligence Deputy Undersecretary II. Intelligence Deputy Undersecretary Technical Intelligence Deputy Undersecretary Administrative Service Units Service Units Service Units Service Units

MIT Background Established on 22 July 1965, by Law no. 644
Run by an Undersecretary, reporting to Prime Minister Updated on 1 January 1984, by Law no. 2937, Law on State Intelligence and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization MIT effectively replaced the Milli Emniyet Hizmeti (MEH/MAH), the National Police Service Approximately 5000 (full-time) employees work for MIT with an annual budget of 996 million Turkish Lira

MIT Duties & Responsibilities
Procure national security intelligence on immediate and potential activities Meet the intelligence needs of the President, the Prime Minister, the Secretary General of the National Security Council, and of the relevant Ministries regarding the national security policy of the State Make proposals to the National Security Council and the Prime Minister on directing the intelligence activities of public institutions

MIT Duties & Responsibilities (Continued)
Provide consultancy in technical issues regarding the intelligence and counterintelligence activities of public institutions Deliver the information and intelligence, the General Staff deems necessary for the Armed Forces, to the Headquarters of the General Staff Carry out other duties determined by the National Security Council Carry out counterintelligence activities

MIT Relationship with Israel
Cooperation began in 1997 as a joint effort to share intelligence on terrorist activities. Israel/Turkey joint listening posts on the Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian borders. Information on the PKK and Syrian and Iraqi military movements. Intelligence sharing has led to improved military relationships between the two countries. Turkey and Israel have granted permission to each other to use their airspace.

MIT Relationship with Iran
July 2, 2012 Two PKK militants turned themselves in as part of a unit of 200 who transported heavy weaponry to the southeastern Turkish district of Semdinli MIT was previously unaware of the activity MIT had been sharing intelligence with Iran, unknown to the rest of the intelligence community, and saw the lack of intelligence on the PKK offensive as a betrayal by SAVAK (Iranian Organization of Intelligence and National Security) “I am disappointed with the Iranians’ attitude. Turkey was sharing intelligence with Iran concerning the PKK, but Iran did not help Turkey know more about PKK units on Iranian territory” – Prime Minister Erdoğan MIT’s assistance to Iran in providing US equipment was seen as a betrayal to the CIA

MIT Relationship with CIA
Historically strong relationship has cooled considerably since 2004 Ankara feels the U.S. presence in Iraq since the Gulf War has allowed the PKK to flourish in northern Iraq Perception the U.S. has been supporting the PKK Claims the U.S. formed a Kurdish region in northern Iraq Turkish public has been attributing the growth in terror attacks to the U.S. Concerned the U.S. might be willing to divide Turkey U.S. strategy is based on a rapprochement between Turks and Kurds U.S. is trying to bring Kurdish bodies closer to Turkey Main obstacle to Turkish rapprochement is the PKK

KDGM Duties & Responsibilities
Kamu Düzeni ve Güvenliği Müsteşarlığı (KDGM) is the Under-secretariat of Public Order and Security (of the Prime Minister) Established under Law no to “ensure productivity and effectiveness in the field of counterterrorism” Responsible for domestic intelligence Produces counterterrorism policies and strategies Ensuring that the security forces and intelligence agencies are analyzing, sharing and effectively using intelligence Fulfilling other duties assigned by legislation

JITEM Duties & Responsibilities
Jandarma İstihbarat ve Terörle Mücadele (JITEM) is a secret Gendarmerie Intelligence organization dedicated to counter-terrorism activities. Established as a body within Gendarmerie General Command without the approval of the General Staff or the knowledge of the Interior Ministry. Little is known about JITEM’s official duties and responsibilities due to the secrecy of the program. It is unknown outside of Turkish government whether JITEM still exists at all.

JITEM Duties & Responsibilities
Some People's Democratic Party (HADEP) leaders claim that JITEM was opposed to the establishment of democratic parties, like HADEP. Accused of involvement in dozens of unsolved murders in 1990s. Many civil rights activists, politicians and business people were kidnapped and murdered. Bodies were thrown into the wells and others were doused in acid and thrown into the fields. Organization has links to Ergenekon, which is a clandestine criminal organization accused of planning to overthrow the government.

Cyber Security Policies
Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications has overall responsibility for establishing cyber security policies Information and Communication Technologies Authority (ICTA) regulates cyber security issues National Cyber Security policy document established in 2008; strategy document in October 2012 Cabinet Decision Nr. 2012/3842 established a National Cyber Security Board in October 2012 to oversee cyber security issues

Cyber Security Institute Duties & Responsibilities
Siber Güvenlik Enstitüsü (SGE) is the Cyber Security Institute under the Scientific and Technological Research Council (TUBITAK) Information security consulting and services Military Public security institutions Private sector

Cyber Security Institute Duties & Responsibilities
Provides the following consulting services: System security testing and auditing Secure information system design Information security management Secure software development IT product safety testing Malware analysis Digital forensic analysis Network monitoring and intrusion prevention Data privacy CERT (Computer Incidents Response Team) Information Security Training Provides the following consulting services: System security testing and auditing Secure information system design Information security management Secure software development IT product safety testing Malware analysis Digital forensic analysis Network monitoring and intrusion prevention Data privacy CERT (Computer Incidents Response Team) Information Security Training

Computer Emergency Response Teams
Two accredited CERTs TR-BOME – government-run ULAK-CSIRT – belongs to the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for research and education

Information and Communication Technologies Authority (BTK)
Bilgi İletişim ve Teknolojileri Kurumu (BTK) is the Information and Communication Technologies Authority Equivalent of the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Regulates policies established by Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications Anti-spam project in 2009 reduced spam s by 99%, from 6.5 billion to 394 million Hacked in 2012 by unknown actors, victim of Denial of Service

Cyber Army Command Established sometime in 2012, announced in January 2013 Established to counter cyber-terrorism attacks. Special unit created within General Staff with cooperation with the Defense Ministry, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TAK) and the Middle East Technical University. Mimics the U.S. Cyber Command, subordinate to Turkish General Staff Will function within framework of the National Virtual Media Security Policy and protect public institutions and organizations. Has its own budget and an autonomous structure.

Cyber Army Command Monitors entire Internet network in Turkey, protects state institutions Participates in national and NATO led cyber-defense exercises “White Hackers” trained with specific expertise in health defense, security, education, insurance and banking. Trained to look for vulnerabilities and weaknesses within institutions and eliminate the vulnerabilities by putting up defensive measures.

Timeline of Cyber / Intelligence Events
2002 Alleged Turkish infiltration of the US State Dept, Pentagon, and Congress to blackmail a Congress member to sway a Congressional vote on recognizing the Armenian genocide. 2011 01/06/ DDoS attacks against multiple Turkish government websites by Anonymous in response to Turkey’s plans to introduce Internet filtering. 01/25/ National Cyber Security Exercise executed with cooperation of the Information and Communications Authority (BTK) and TUBITAK Informatics and Information Security Advanced Technologies Research Center (BILGEM) 07/08/2011 – 74 websites and more than 100 Turkish government domains attacked by Anonymous

2011 (cont’d) 11/09/2011 – Turkish Finance Ministry website attacked by terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’Party (PKK). Website replaced with propaganda material. 2012 03/01/2012 – Attack against Ankara Police Headquarters network by RedHack. Leaked files were released on Attack was performed in support of the AntiSec operation to attack all types of government and security firms. 03/07/2012 – Attack against the Turkish Prime Ministry’s network, attempting to access official documents of government correspondence, initially attributed to Anonymous. Anonymous denied carrying out the attacks.

2012 (cont’d) 06/2012 – Turkish Intelligence betrays CIA; deceived by Iran. 2013 01/24/2013 – Turkey’s Council of Higher Education (YOK) attacked by RedHack. 60,000 documents leaked 05/06/2013 – Istanbul official government website defaced by RedHack in “retaliation for of attack on people at MayDay and to commemorate revolutionaries Deniz, Yusuf, Huseyin hanged on May 6, 1972.”

2013 (cont’d) 06/05/2013 – Turkish government networks attacked by Syrian Electronic Army and Anonymous. The Prime Minister’s official website, basbakanlik.gov.tr, was compromised and access was gained to staff , passwords, and phone numbers. 06/12/2013 – MIT Undersecretary and the head of Israel’s Mossad Secret Service meet in Ankara to discuss intelligence sharing between the two countries and protests in Taksim square. 06/13/2013 – DDoS attack on Turkey’s Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTUK) official website by Anonymous. 06/28/2013 – attack on Istanbul Special Provincial Administration’s website by RedHack allegedly resulting in debt write-offs.

Cyber Threats RedHack Turkish based hacktivist organization
Istanbul Police classify RedHack as a “Cyber Terrorist Organization” Responsible for attacks on multiple Turkish government websites and networks

Cyber Threats(continued)
Anonymous Loosely organized hacktivist organization Responsible for attacks on multiple Turkish government websites and networks Close relationship with RedHack

Cyber Threats(continued)
Syrian Electronic Army Syrian-based hacktivist organization 06/05/2013 – In coordination with Anonymous, attacked Prime Minister’s official website, gained access to staff , passwords, and phone numbers. Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) Highly organized terrorist organization focused on Kurdish nationalism 11/09/2011 – Defaced Turkish Finance Ministry website with propaganda material Primarily a physical threat through militant actions against Turkey

Impact to US without Turkey’s feed into the NATO intelligence stream
US-Turkey defense relationship is critical to good relations between Turkey and NATO Turkey will no longer host US-made radar system in Kurecik district Radar system turned Turkey into “intelligence-provider” Less intelligence sharing on Turkey’s surrounding countries No resolution to Turkey-Israel relations US desire to coordinate regional policies with both nations US’s interest in Turkish domestic and foreign policy issues No access to global hotspots

Impact on SIGINT and HUMINT ability for U.S. in the Middle East
Consequences Impact on SIGINT and HUMINT ability for U.S. in the Middle East Effect on U.S: CIA relationship will suffer as a close ally of Israel and adversary of Iran Loss of HUMINT capabilities on Turkish borders Loss of SIGINT capabilities from Gölbaşı and Iraqi Security Zone U.S. loses key intelligence facilities from a critical area in the Middle East. U.S. Strategy of facilitating a rapprochement between Turks and Kurds is in jeopardy Intelligence channels to monitor militant PKK sects will be cut off A rapprochement will start to slip away without solid intelligence analysis of both sides in the conflict Iraqi border security is in jeopardy without an ally to the north.

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Letsch, C., & Pidd, H. (2011, August 4). Turkey names new military chiefs. Retrieved July 16, 2013, from The Guardian: Matthews, O. (2011, September 2). Israel and turkey sever ties. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from The Daily Beast: gaza-flotilla-raid.html McDaniel, H. (2013, March 26). Israel-turkey-iran intelligence cooperation: Regional stability. Retrieved July 05, 2013, from examiner.com: regional-stability Michaletos, I., & Deliso, C. (2008, June 23). Turkish intelligence activities under increased public scrutiny in turkey and greece. Retrieved July 3, 2013, from World Security Network: Christopher-Deliso-/Turkish-Intelligence-Activities-under-Increased-Public- Scrutiny-in-Turkey-and-Greece Military bases in turkey. (n.d.). Retrieved July 6, 2013, from MilitaryBases.com: Money Jihad. (2011, October 3). The case for taxing hawala. Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Money Jihad:

Mongabay.com. (1995, January). Turkey - Domestic arms industry. Retrieved July 12, 2013, from Mongabay.com: Environmental News: Öğret, Ö. (2013, June). Danger on turkey's streets: Reporting on the civil unrest [web log post]. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from Committee to Protect Journalists: Journalist Security Blog: turkeys-streets-reporting-on-the-civil-u.php Passeri, P. (2011, June 28) Cyber attacks (and cyber costs) timeline (updated) [web log post]. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Hackmageddon.com: timeline-updated/ Passeri, P. (2011, August 2). July 2011 cyber attacks timeline [web log post]. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Hackmageddon.com: Peterson, S. (2013, June 6). Turkey's protests reveal conflicting visions of society. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from The Christian Science Monitor: :// conflicting-visions-of-society

Pew Research Center. (2011, June 7). On eve of elections, a more upbeat mood in turkey. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Pew Research Global Attitueds Project: upbeat-mood-in-turkey/ Pew Research Center. (2013). Erdogan more popular among devout muslims. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from Pew Research Global Attitudes Project: Pipes, D. (2013, June 19). Pipes: What turkey’s riots mean. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from The Washington Times: Pontz, Z. (2013, June 21). Greek cyprus signs energy deal with israel in defiance of turkey. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from The Albemeiner: israel-in-defiance-of-turkey/ Redhack. (2013). Press release: Council of higher education of turkey hacked and over documents leaked [web log post]. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Redhack: Tumblr: release-council-of-higher-education-of-turkey

Reuters. (2013, June 5). Anonymous, syrian electronic army hack turkish govt networks, leak s incl pm's. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Reuters: Reuters. (2013, June 21). Cia and the us military operatives train rebels in turkey and jordan - report. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Reuters: Reuters. (2013). Koc holding as (kchol.is). Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Reuters: Rhode, H. (2010, May 9). Turkey: Between atatürk’s secularism and fundamentalist islam. Retrieved July 9, 2013, from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs: secularism-and-fundamentalist-islam/ Rubin, M. (2012, October 5). Turkey's march toward religious extremism. Retrieved July 9, 2013, from Commentary Magazine [online]: are-erdogan-his-thugs # Sariibrahimoglu, L. (2013, January 21). Turkey sets up cyber command. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from IHS Jane's Defence Weekly [online]:

Secular (definition). (2013 ). Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Merriam-Webster [online]: Secularism (definition). (2013). Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Merriam- Webster [online]: Seferoglu, S. (1997, May 7). Government and legal system. Retrieved July 3, 2013, from Türkiye on the Web: Turkey at a Glance: Selvan, S. (2013, May 6). Istanbul government website hacked by the redhack [online newsgroup]. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from E Hacking News: by.html Sharon-Krespin, R. (2009). Fethullah gülen's grand ambition: Turkey's islamist danger. The Middle East Quarterly [online] , 16 (1), pp Retrieved on July 9, 2013 from ambition Sheets, C. A. (2013, June 4). The only turkish 'extremists' fueling the protest are erdogan and his thugs. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from International Business Times: extremists-fueling-protests-are-erdogan-his-thugs #

Stein, A. (2013, July 2). The hq-9: Dissecting turkey’s missile defense decision [web log post]. Retrieved July 12, 2013, from Turkey Wonk: Nuclear and Political Musings in Turkey and Beyond: Steinvorth, D. (2009, May 27). Turkey's dirty war against the kurds: 'We used to murder people at night when the soldiers weren't around’. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Der Spiegel Online - International: we-used-to-murder-people-at-night-when-the-soldiers-weren-t-around-a html Tagiyeva, A. (2013, May 17). Turkish private sector’s external debt grows by over $200 million. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from Trend.com: Taşpınar, Ö. (2013, April). Turkey: The new model? Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Brookings Institution Press: taspinar Taştekin, F. (2013, June 21). Turkey’s sunni identity test. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East: monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/turkey-sunnism-sectarian-rhetoric.html

The Economist. (2013, June 15). The turkish economy: Strong but vulnerable. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from The Economist [online]: exposed-loss-confidence-foreign-investors-strong-vulnerable The Federation of American Scientists. (n.d.). The law on the state intelligence services and the national intelligence organization. Retrieved July 3, 2013, from FAS.org: Theocracy (definition). (2013). Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Merriam-Webster [online]: Thomas Jr., L. (2013, June 5). Financial fears gain credence as unrest shakes turkey. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from The New York Times: unrest-shakes-turkey.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1& Tirman (Ed.). (n.d.). The events of july and august 1974: Two official views. Retrieved July 7, 2013, from The Cyprus Conflict: An Educational Website: % html Today's Zaman. (2010, October 27). Former jitem member admits surveillance of pm erdoğan’s house. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Today's Zaman [online]: 6

Today's Zaman. (2011, November 9). Pkk attacks turkey's finance ministry website. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Today's Zaman [online]: ministry-website.html Torbakov, I. (2008). The georgia crisis and russia-turkey relations. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from The Jamestown Foundation: Tuysuz, G., & Tavernise, S. (2011, July 29). Top generals quit in group, stunning turks. Retrieved July 7, 2013, from The New York Times: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2013, May). Refugee crisis worsens. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Gulf News: missiles Uslu, E. (2012, August 17). Mit betrays cia; deceived by savak. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from Today's Zaman [online]: savak.html Uslu, E. (2012, September 3). Turkey-iran cold war. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Al Arabiya News [online]:

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References – Government
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Turkey A National Critical Intelligence Estimate

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