1. NICE Workshop: Session III Physostegia virginana (above) and Baptista australis (right)* *photos from Missouri Botanical Garden PlantFinder Dr. Jennifer Schwarz Ballard Associate Vice President, Education Phenology: Effects of Climate Change on Earth’s Biosphere – Plants

2. Explore: The Data What data do we have? (types, dates) What do the data represent? What comparisons can we make? What analyses can we carry out?

3. What data do we have? (types, dates) What do the data represent?

4. Explore: What are the data? First bloom dates for 5 plant species from 1852-2006 in Concord, MA Temperature data from Blue Hill Observatory (Milton, MA) –Annual mean temperature 1852-2006 –Spring min/max temperature 1895-2006 Annual precipitation from Blue Hill Observatory 1888-2006

5. Explore: Describe the Data What do you notice about the first flower data sets, individually and compared to each other? What do you notice about the temperature and precipitation data? Can you identify any possible trends or connections across data sets by looking at the data tables? If so, what?

6. What do you notice about the first flower data sets, individually and compared to each other? What do you notice about the temperature and precipitation data? Can you identify any trends or connections bloom time and precipitation or temperature by looking at the data tables? If so, what ?

7. Are there any trends in bloom dates? What are they? Are all the trends similar? Are there any trends in temperature? How does temperature compare with bloom dates? Are there any trends in precipitation? How do the three variables compare with each other?

8. Explore: Conclusions Annual average and springtime temperatures appear to be increasing These five species appear to be blooming earlier in the season There appears to be a relationship between first bloom times for these five species and annual and springtime temperatures It is unclear whether there is a relationship between precipitation and bloom times

9. Explain: Driving Questions How do plants “know” when to start growing in the spring? What role does climate play? How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival? What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates? How can we engage students and what can we do?

10. Plant Growth Triggers Temperature Freeze-thaw cycles Daylight hours Precipitation

11. Explain: Driving Questions How do plants “know” when to start growing in the spring? What role does climate play? How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival? What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates? How can we engage students and what can we do?

12. Even with modest change, many plants are in trouble The proportion of native US vascular plant species that were entirely out of their climate envelopes as a function of the increase in temperature above mean annual temperature. Three methods were used to determine climate envelopes (A, B, C). From Morse, Kutner and Kartesz, 1995.

13. Hardiness Zone Change * Ellis, David.(2003) The USDA Plant Hardiness Map, 2003 Edition. American Gardener, American Horticultural Society *

14. Future Changes http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/winmigrating/glwinmig_il.html

15. Habitat loss compounds the problems Predicted coastal inundation in the United States in the next few centuries (J. Overpeck, et al., 2006, in Science) Image: Courtesy of Jeremy Weiss and Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona

16. Explain: Driving Questions How do plants “know” when to start growing in the spring? What role does climate play? How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival? What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates? How can we engage students and what can we do?

17. Nature’s Responses to Climate Change Phenotypic plasticity: (i.e. coping) the ability of individual organisms to respond Migration/Range Shift: moving to more suitable habitat Adaptation: ability of species to respond over time. Extinction: inability of organisms to respond to changing environments in time “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change!” -- Charles Darwin

18. Natural migration will be difficult Barriers to migration (from Abraham J. Miller-Rushing and Richard B. Primack, Plant Talk 2004) In the past, plants and animals migrated as the climate changed Today anthropogenic, as well as natural, barriers limit dispersal ability

19. Migrate where? In many parts of the world, natural habitat patches are few and far between

20. Adapt? Data Sources for CO 2 : Law Dome ice core and Mauna Loa air samples. Data Source for Temperature: NOAA.Law Dome ice coreMauna Loa air samplesNOAA

21. Timing is Everything Phenology is the science that measures the timing of life cycle events in all organisms. Climate impacts plant phenology Changes in plant phenology can impact individual species and ecosystem survival

22. Coping: Phenological changes Phenology=the timing of natural events Many plant species respond via plasticity (individual flexibility) to warming temperatures by flowering earlier; earlier flowering dates can also evolve Phenological shifts can be detected using herbarium specimens, photos, and naturalists’ diaries 5/30/1868 5/30/2005

23. Brief History of Phenology The Japanese have been recording the timing of Cherry Blossoms since 900 CE Grape harvest dates in Switzerland have been recorded by wine makers since 1480 CE Linneaus and Marsham are considered the “Fathers of modern phenology” Marsham, kept systematic records of "Indications of spring" on his estate in England Thomas Jefferson was a keen observer of garden phenology. He referred to the progression of blooms in his garden as acts in a play

24. Phenology monitoring Variety of ways to make observations Via Satellite Cloned plant observations In-situ observations

25. Explain: Driving Questions How do plants “know” when to start growing in the spring? What role does climate play? How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival? What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates? How can we engage students and what can we do?

26. Climate Change Education Project

27. BudBurst Educational Goals Increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants and the environment Provide a locally relevant context that makes the abstract concept of climate change visible and accessible to students. Increase scientific skills and engagement through student participation in an authentic and ongoing research project.

28. NASA data helps students make connections…

29. Chicago IL Concord, MA …and deepen understanding

30. For more information Project BudBurst: www.budburst.orgwww.budburst.org Climate Change Education Project curricula and materials: Jennifer Schwarz Ballard, PhD Associate Vice President, Education Chicago Botanic Garden jschwarz@chicagobotanic.org

31. Thanks To… The staff of the Division of Plant Science and Conservation at the Chicago Botanic Garden and collaborators who shared their information and photos for this presentation, especially Kayri Havens- Young, Pati Vitt, Sandra Henderson, and Kirsten Meymaris