1. Climate change and conservation (Lec 24-26) FYI – Additional Reading Chapter 10 - Principles of Conservation Biology Vince (2009) Surviving in a warmer world. New Scientist Vol 201 No. 2697 Parmesan (2006) Annual Review of of Ecology and Systematics 37: 637-669

2. Summary so far Atmospheric gases prevent long wave (IR) energy from being dissipated into space CO 2 contributes most to the Earth’s ability to absorb and retain solar energy (i.. it has the strongest radiative forcing) Data from ice cores show CO 2 and global temperatures have risen over the last 100 years All scenarios developed by the IPCC suggest CO 2 levels and global climate change will continue The IPCC chair suggests we should plan for a 4C warming by 2100

3. Climate change and conservation (Lec 25) Predicted Impacts on Biological Systems Observed Ecological Impacts Ecosystem feedback loops Conservation implications

4. Climate can determine the distribution of species Changes in temperature or precipitation will change the geographical range of species

5. How will climate change impact biomes, communities, species? Predictions Geographic ranges should move towards the poles show elevational changes

6. Climate envelope modelling Current climate + distribution  “climate envelope” Predict climate + climate envelope  Predicted distribution

7. How will climate change impact biomes, communities, species? Predictions BUT Different species in a community have different needs and tolerances vary in their ability to move Species differ in their response New communities are created Species abundances change New species invade Some species go extinct

8. Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Birds Great Britain - 59 species - northward shift of 19 km in 20yrs North America - 56 bird species - north ward shift of 46 km in 20 yrs - range is contracting because southern range boundary shifting faster

9. Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Birds - North America - winter range

10. Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Mammals Red fox has expanded into the North Arctic fox has contracted to Atlantic

11. Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Butterflies North America and Europe 58 species 2/3 shifted north 100km/decade Edith’s checkerspot

12. Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Plankton – mesozooplankton in the ne Atlantic Northwards shifts of 1000km

13. Observed Ecological Impacts Elevational change Monteverde National Park, Costa Rica Lowland birds move into montane cloud forest Siberia and Canadian Rockies Treeline movement has been documented

14. Observed Ecological Impacts Phenological change Plants Japan- Cherry - 1400-1900 no change in flowering timing - 1950 on timing has advanced Europe – Grape harvest - 1500-2000 – timing depends on temp - 2003 earliest harvest ever Animals US -Frogs- 6 spp 1900-2000 10-13 day advance linked to 1 -2.3C increase UKBirds 20 spp 1970-1995 9 day advance in laying date

15. Summary of studies for 944 species (Parmesan and Yohe 2003) Climate change As predicted Opposite to prediction prediction% Earlier timing 8713 Extension 8119 of range boundaries polewards Community change8515 Cold adapted species decline Warm adapted species increase

16. Consequences of range shifts What happens when your food moves? Triangle Island BC Sea surface temperature influences availability of the copepod Neocalanus cristatus Warm-water prey species are smaller and have lower fat content Less N cristatus  reduced nestling growth and lower fledgling success Cassin auklets have declined 2.3%/yr over the last 40 yrs

17. Consequences of range contractions What happens when you can’t go up anymore? 8400 landbirds 2.8C increase in temperature – 5% extinct by 2100 6.4C 30% extinct by 2100 Sekercoglu (2008) Cons Bio 22:140-150

18. Consequences of phenological shifts What happens if your timing is off? Colorado Rocky Mountains - 1.4C rise in air temperature 1975- 1999  yellow bellied marmots emerge from hibernation 38 days earlier  American robins arrive 14 days earlier BUT snowmelt and plant flowering has NOT changed The gap between arrival/emergence and when food is available has increased this will increase mortality and reduce clutch/litter size

19. Additional consequences of climate change Pest species and disease are also moving polewards and upward Eg Chytrid fungus Cooler days and warmer nights have resulted in favourable conditions at mid-elevation sites Changes in dynamics of the skin fungus is implicated in subsequent extinctions of 74 harlequin frog species

20. Summary so far Climate change is unequivocal Biological impacts are being detected already Adaptation and mitigation are necessary Next Biodiversity/Conservation impacts on climate Conservation implications