1. Do Now:
The world population today is over 7 billion people, with most living in East and South Asia. How and/or why does 20% of the worlds population live in one region?
What factors are taken into consideration?

2. Aim: What is the demographic transition?

3. Crude Birth Rate

4. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per
TFR is the average number of children that would be born to each woman if during her child-bearing years, she bore children at the same rate as women of those ages actually did in a given year. It is age-adjusted, thus 2 nations with identical birth rates may have quite different fertility rates and prospects for growth.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per
woman is considered “replacement level.”

5. Crude Death Rates show less world wide variability than do birth rates due to widespread availability of at least minimal health care and a generally youthful population in the developing nations where death rates are frequently lower than in “old age” Europe.
Crude Death Rates

6. deblij_ch02_table01
deblij_ch02_table01.jpg

7. Dramatic declines in the rates have occurred in all countries as a result of international health care delivery programs. Despite these efforts the most dramatic decreases in infant mortality have been in the urbanize, industrialized west.
Infant Mortality Rate: - the number of deaths of children under the age of 1, per thousand of the general population.

8. Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

9. Dependency Ratio
The number of people under the age of 15 and over age 64, compared to the number of people active in the labor force.

10. Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

11. What is the Demographic Transition?
The shift from high to low mortality and fertility through four distinct stages.
Based on the experience of Western Europe’s Industrial Age.
Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.
Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein
A sign of socio-economic progress?
The shift from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility is known as the “demographic transition.”
It is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales.
This model was first described by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929.
In 1945, Frank W. Notestein further developed this theory and suggested that there was a relationship between population change and industrialization. A debate continues questioning if population growth must decline for economic development or if economic progress (or industrialization) leads to slower population growth.
In light of this debate, the completion of the demographic transition has come to be associated with socioeconomic progress.
[FYI – The factors that drive childbearing trends—such as the economy, education, gender relations, and access to family planning—are numerous and complex. These same factors are signs of socioeconomic development.]

12. The Classic Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Time
Natural
increase
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
This chart explains the typical changes in the birth rate and death rate that happen as a country industrializes (including the U.S.).
It models the classic demographic transition. This shift occurred throughout Europe, North America, and a number of other areas in the 19th and early 20th centuries, and started in many developing countries in the middle of the 20th century.
Stage 1: The trend of high birth and death rates (and minimal population growth)
Stage 2: Starts when the death rate begins to drop for years, and often decades, until the beginning of its stabilization at a new, low level. (In Europe, this stage happened because of improved health and living conditions and marked beginning a period of rapid population growth.)
Stage 3: Next the birth rate falls to about the same, low level as the death rate.
Stage 4: With birth and death rates at similar low levels, the equilibrium of slow population growth is regained.
[FYI - Declines in the birth rate around the world have also become steeper due to the widespread availability of contraceptives in the last half of the 20th Century. In % of married women worldwide had access to family planning. By % of married women had access to family planning. (PRB, “Transitions in World Population,” Population Bulletin, p. 8)]

13. Stage 1 - High Fluctuating
Reasons
Birth Rate is high as a result of:
Lack of family planning
High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
Need for workers in agriculture
Religious beliefs
Children as economic assets
Death Rate is high because of:
High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from predators such as rats
Lack of education
Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.
Crude Birth Rate: High / 1,000
Crude Death Rate: High / 1,000
Natural Increase Rate: None / 1,000
Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

14. Stage 2 - Early Expanding
Reasons
Death Rate is falling as a result of:
Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
Improved sanitation
Improved food production and storage
Improved transport for food
Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
Crude Birth Rate: High / 1,000
Crude Death Rate: Lower / 1,000
Natural Increase Rate: Very High 25+/1,000

15. Stage 3 - Late Expanding Reasons Family planning available
Lower Infant Mortality Rate
Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
Increased standard of living
Changing status of women
Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil.
Crude Birth Rate: Lower / 1,000
Crude Death Rate: Low / 1,000
Natural Increase Rate: Low / 1000

16. Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating
Reasons
Economy is settled
Fully developed Middle Class
Political stability
Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain
Crude Birth Rate: Low / 1,000
Crude Death Rate: Low / 1,000
Natural Increase Rate: None / 1,000

17. Is the model universally applicable?
Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:
1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it.
2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialized.

18. Continued
3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘one child’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialized countries.
4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

19. World Health Threats
This transition occurs as a country undergoes the process of modernization or economic development. Less economically developed countries have higher rates of infectious diseases as standards of medical care are lower than that found in more economically developed countries.
In more economically developed countries, more people die from degenerative diseases as infectious diseases such as cholera and typhoid are easily treated, causing more people to die from cancers as they live longer.

20. Epidemiologic Transition- stage 1
The first transition was from hunting-gathering to primary food production. During this transition, infectious and parasitic diseases became prevalent. The shift to agriculture provides a more sedentary way-of-life and this creates more opportunities for contact with infected animals and human waste (i.e. vectors and vehicles of transmission).

21. Epidemiologic Transition –stage 2
The second epidemiological transition occurred in modern times with infectious diseases under control and chronic, noninfectious, degenerative diseases rising. This second epidemiological transition is typically in the wealthy or developed nations. Developing nations still suffer from infectious diseases more than chronic diseases.

22. Epidemiologic Transition- stage 3
The stage of generative and human-created diseases, characterized by a decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in chronic disorders associated with aging. Two important chronic disorders are cardiovascular diseases and various forms of cancer

23. Epidemiologic Transition- stage 4
The stage of delayed degenerative diseases. The major degenerative causes of death-cardiovascular diseases and cancers. Life expectancy of older people is extended through medical advances

24. Epidemiologic Transition-stage 5
The stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Infectious diseases thought to have been eradicated or controlled have returned, and new ones have emerged.

25. Cholera in London, 1854
Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

26. Tuberculosis Death Rates
Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

27. HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005
Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

28. Population Pyramids-display a country’s population in a bar graph form.
Each 5 year group with the youngest 0-4 years old at the base of the pyramid are called cohorts.
Males are shown on the left side and females are shown on the right.
A wide-based pyramid indicates a country in Stage 2 of the Demographic transition.

29. Population Pyramids –
Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender.
For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid. Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.

30. Population Pyramids
Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender.
For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.

31. Population Policies
Expansive Policies or Pro-Natalist policies encourage large families e.g. Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, Soviet Union & Ceausescu’s Romania & Mao’s China.
Eugenic Population Policy-Nazi Germany favored “Aryans” over mentally ill or other undesirables.
The Nazis tried to breed the super race of Nordic or Aryan types.
Eugenics-science devoted to improving the human race through heredity=control who mates with who.
An SS banner flies over a lebensborn where babies born of good German girls and SS officers were cared for.

32. Population Policies
Restrictive or Anti-Natalist Policies discourage births.
Policies vary- e.g. despite Vatican policies, most Catholic Italians practice artificial birth control-Philippines (only Asian Catholic country) a different case-govt. restricts birth control.
Some countries have learned that industrialization & urbanization do as much as government policy in controlling births.

33. China’s One Child Policy
What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and contradictions found in government policies toward population growth?

34. China’s aggressive policy enforcement of the One couple, one child” is displayed on this billboard.
Violators are subject to heavy fines, loss of job, loss of access to better housing and other penalties.

35. Geography of Demography
Recognized minorities (3%) of pop. were exempt
Many rural Chinese defied rule, hid pregnant women, failed to register births, prevented inspectors from visiting rural villages.
Government took drastic action:
Violators were fired
Land was confiscated
Lost all benefits
Pregnant women were arrested & forced to have abortions
Harbin Hospital nurse checks newborns.
In some areas a second or third child resulted in 10% reduction in income until kid is 14 yrs old.

36. Geography of Demography
First 6 years 70 million abortions
1980s about 20 million sterilizations a year-3X as many women as men.
Party Members were birth control police-got cash and promotion for enforcing the laws.
1984 One Child Policy was relaxed in the countryside-a couple with a daughter-2nd child after 4 years.

37. Geography of Demography
China’s One-Child Policy created a generation of 90 million
119 boys for every 100 girls
30 million unmarried men by 2020
45% of Chinese women said they don’t intend to wed.
3/10 families have grandparents living with them
Biggest demographic revolution in history-Number of Elderly is rising-by 2050 about 30% of the population will be over 60-no pensions or social security.
Beijing also enforces a 1 dog per family rule-must be less than 14 inches tall.
China’s only children will have to support two parents and perhaps 4 grandparents.

38. In 1798 he published An Essay on the Principle of Population
Malthus was the first to sound the alarm that the world’s population was expanding more rapidly than food production.
He was the first to recognize exponential or geometric population growth.
Today those who share his concerns are Neo-Malthusians
Rev. Thomas Malthus
Thomas Malthus a political economist and a clergyman he published a short book called Essay on Population in 1789 in which he argued that food production would always be outpaced by population growth.
Positive checks on population growth include war, famine and disease.
As a conservative clergyman he disapproved of birth control by artificial means.

39. Food & Population, 1950-2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends
Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

40. Thomas Malthus
Neo-Malthusians
Critics of Malthus
Population is growing faster than Earth’s food supply
Population increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically
Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries
World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources
Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources
Large populations stimulate economic growth
Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions

41. Malthus Theory and Reality
Food production increased more rapidly than predicted because of technology.
Internal combustion engines
Artificial fertilizers
Pesticides
Irrigation pumps
Advanced plant and animal hybridization techniques
Refrigeration
Tin can for packaging

42. THE END