1. E NERGY E FFICIENCY & H UMAN E CONOMIC W ELFARE By Garry Jacobs and Ivo Šlaus  Club of Rome International Conference on “The Future of Energy & Interconnected Challenges of the 21 st Century” Basel -- October 17-18, 2011

2. Sustainable Human Welfare 2 Human Welfare Disposable Income Employment Energy & Environment Security Income Distribution Education & Health Household Savings 

3.  Security  Physical  Peace  Energy  Climate  Social  Income & employment  Health & retirement  Social stability  Psychological  Absence of catastrophic threats  Confidence in ourselves, our institutions & opportunities

4. Human Economic Welfare Index (HEWI)  Composite index of human economic welfare  Encompasses factors omitted by GDP  Maintains utility of an easily measured index, e.g. CPI  Components of HEWI  Personal Disposable Income (PDI)  Human Welfare Government Expenditure (HWGE)  Full Employment Index (FEI)  Economic Welfare Index (EWI) -- equality  Combined Education Index (CEI)  Health Adjusted Life Expectancy Index (HALE)  Energy Efficiency Index (EEI) 3

5. Energy Intensity 1830-2000 Source : Marina Fischer-Kowalski and Helga Weisz, “Transition to a Globally Sustainable Metabolism—Possible and Impossible Futures” Presented at the 2008 Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Nairobi, Kenya, August 2008; p. 7.  Energy Intensity is Energy consumption per unit of GDP 4 75% 

6. Projected US Energy Intensity 2008-2035 Source EAI. 2008 = 1 5 15% Evolution of economy: Services now account for 78% of US GDP & 64% of global output

7. Fossil Fuel Energy Intensity for Selected OECD Countries 1970–2008 6 USA  60% UK  55% Switz  40%

8. Fossil Fuel Energy Efficiency Index (EEI)  Relates fossil fuel energy consumption to Economic Welfare  Household consumption expenditure +  Government welfare related expenditure  Health  Education  Social protection & employment insurance  Housing  Environmental protection  Measures changes over sliding10 year periods  Higher EEI reflects investments in sustainability  Shift to renewable sources  Improved energy efficiency  Shift to less energy-intensive economic activities 7

9. EEI for Select Countries: 1995 - 2008  Energy Intensity unit: Btu/ 2000 intl dollars PPP; FFEC in BTU per dollar. HWE in constant $2005 PPP Country Energy Intensity FFEC as % energy consumed FFEC/ HWE 1995 FFEC/ HWE 2005 FFEC/ HWE 2008 EEI 2005 US9,14685%11499894184201.16 UK5,45189%7667576552351.15 Sweden8,85737%6356468342071.13 India7,58292%119119834 1.06 Germany6,57385%7611673264991.05 China13,91993%3038628181 1.04 Japan6,63683%7707746574851.02 Italy5,79391%6664648861281.01 Brazil6,90660%5145550854780.98 Spain6,48185%6104645557200.94 8 FFEC in USA 27%  in 18 years

10. Trends in EEI 1975 to 2005 Country FFEC/HWE for 1975 FFEC/HWE for 2005 EEI 1985 EEI 1995 EEI 2005 EEI 30 1975-05 China 81,58928,1811.221.04 1.65 Sweden 12,7744,6831.351.081.131.63 UK 13,2995,7651.211.131.151.57 US 20,1618,9411.401.071.161.56 Japan 13,7997,4651.331.011.021.46 Italy 10,5056,4881.231.01 1.38 Spain 7,3166,4551.021.030.941.12 India 8,6649,8341.000.921.060.87 10

11.  Human Economic Welfare Index (2005) CountryGDPPDIEWIFEICEIEEIHEWI HEWI as % GDP India2,2341,8211,6380.961.021.061,70276% China4,0762,0191,8270.961.061.041,92447% South Africa8,5045,7824,6900.691.061.013,46541% Brazil8,5055,4594,4200.921.120.984,47953% Turkey10,9778,2917,1120.841.081.026,59660% Croatia14,2718,6679,7200.801.031.008,03256% Mexico12,5639,4928,0600.961.041.068,46667% Russia11,86110,56410,2970.921.021.0510,11985% Korea, Rep22,78311,87511,7640.951.161.0513,60660% Spain27,37718,56920,0570.861.090.9417,67665% Japan30,31016,57118,1860.921.051.0217,91659% Italy28,14419,20520,0820.831.081.0118,19665% Germany31,37821,44923,7000.851.111.0523,50475% Sweden32,31916,18320,5920.891.161.1324,00174% UK32,69022,36423,4880.911.101.1527,19683% US41,83329,51627,4830.931.011.1630,14672%

12.  Thank You