1. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance London, 9 February 2010 Andreas Schleicher Education Policy Advisor of the OECD Secretary-General

2. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance r In the current economic environment… …Opportunity costs for education decline –Dominated by lost earnings …Labour-market entry becomes more difficult –as young graduates compete with experienced workers …Job prospects for less qualified deteriorate …Young people with lower qualifications who become unemployed are likely to spend long time out of work –In most countries over half of low-qualified unemployed 25-34-year-olds are long-term unemployed …Higher risks for systems with significant work- based training …Gaps in educational attainment between younger and older cohorts likely to widen.

3. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance 1.Know w hy you are looking The yardstick for success is no longer just improvement by national standards… …but the best performing education systems globally 2.Know what you are looking for The kind of ‘human capital’ that makes a difference for individuals and nations 3.How do we know that we found it? Gauging impact 4.Implications Understanding what contributes to the success of education systems and improving performance.

4. Andreas Schleicher 16 September 2009 Impact of international Assessments Know why you are looking The yardstick for success is no longer just improvement by national standards… …but the best performing education systems globally

5. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education Graduate supply Cost per student

6. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education United States Finland Graduate supply Cost per student

7. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education Australia Finland United Kingdom

8. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education

9. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education

10. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education

11. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education

12. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education

13. Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – higher education United States Australia Finland United Kingdom

14. Council, 18 September 2008 Education at a Glance Moving targets Future supply of college graduates

15. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Components of the private net present value for a male with higher education Net present value in USD equivalent 35K$ 56K$ 367K$ 105K$ 27K$ 26K$ 170K$

16. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Public cost and benefits for a male obtaining post-secondary education Public benefits Public costs Net present value, USD equivalent (numbers in orange show negative values) Net present value, USD equivalent (numbers in orange show negative values) USD equivalent

17. Council, 18 September 2008 Education at a Glance

18. Andreas Schleicher 16 September 2009 Impact of international Assessments Know what you are looking for The kind of human capital that makes a difference for people and nations

19. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Latin America then… Hanushek 2009 GDP/pop 1960 Years schooling Asia 18914 Sub-Saharan Africa 23043.3 MENA 25992.7 Latin America 41524.7 Europe 74697.4 Orig. OECD 112529.5

20. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance GDP/pop 1960 Years schooling Asia 18914 Sub-Saharan Africa 23043.3 MENA 25992.7 Latin America 41524.7 Europe 74697.4 Orig. OECD 112529.5 Latin America then and now… GDP/pop 1960 Years schooling Growth 1960-2000 GDP/pop 2000 Asia 189144.513571 Sub-Saharan Africa 23043.31.43792 MENA 25992.7 8415 Latin America 41524.71.88063 Europe 74697.42.921752 Orig. OECD 112529.52.126147 Hanushek 2009

21. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Latin America then and now… Why quality is the key Hanushek 2009 GDP/pop 1960 Years schooling Growth 1960-2000 GDP/pop 2000 Test score Asia 189144.513571480 Sub-Saharan Africa 23043.31.43792360 MENA 25992.7 8415412 Latin America 41524.71.88063388 Europe 74697.42.921752492 Orig. OECD 112529.52.126147500

22. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance How the demand for skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) (Levy and Murnane) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution The dilemma of schools: The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource

23. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds Coverage of world economy 77%81% 83% 85%86%87%

24. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Average performance of 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply High science performance Low science performance … 18 countries perform below this line

25. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Average performance of 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity High average performance High social equity Strong socio- economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High science performance Low science performance

26. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity High average performance High social equity Strong socio- economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High science performance Low science performance

27. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance School performance and socio-economic background Germany Student performance Advantage PISA Index of socio-economic background Disadvantage Schools proportional to size Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools School performance and schools’ socio-economic background Student performance and students’ socio-economic background

28. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance School performance and socio-economic background United Kingdom Student performance Advantage PISA Index of socio-economic background Disadvantage Schools proportional to size Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools School performance and schools’ socio-economic background Student performance and students’ socio-economic background

29. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance School performance and socio-economic background Finland Student performance Advantage PISA Index of socio-economic background Disadvantage Schools proportional to size Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools School performance and schools’ socio-economic background Student performance and students’ socio-economic background

30. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Context - Personal - Social/public - Global Competencies Competencies -Identify scientific issues -Explain phenomena scientifically -Use scientific evidence Knowledge -Knowledge of science -Knowledge about science Attitudes -Interest in science -Support for scientific enquiry -Responsibility Identifying Recognising issues that can be investigated scientifically Identifying keywords in a scientific investigation Recognising the key features of a scientific investigation Explaining Applying knowledge of science in a situation Describing or interpreting phenomena scientifically or predicting change Using evidence Interpreting scientific evidence and drawing conclusions Identifying the assumptions, evidence and reasoning behind conclusions OECD Level 6 OECD Level 2 Students can demonstrate ability to understand and articulate the complex modelling inherent in the design of an investigation. Students can determine if scientific measurement can be applied to a given variable in an investigation. Students can appreciate the relationship between a simple model and the phenomenon it is modelling. Students can draw on a range of abstract scientific knowledge and concepts and the relationships between these in developing explanations of processes Students can recall an appropriate, tangible, scientific fact applicable in a simple and straightforward context and can use it to explain or predict an outcome. Students demonstrate ability to compare and differentiate among competing explanations by examining supporting evidence. They can formulate arguments by synthesising evidence from multiple sources. Students can point to an obvious feature in a simple table in support of a given statement. They are able to recognise if a set of given characteristics apply to the function of everyday artifacts.

31. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Large proportion of top performers Top and bottom performers in science 20 Large prop. of poor perf. These students often confuse key features of a scientific investigation, apply incorrect information, mix personal beliefs with facts in support of a position… These students can consistently identify, explain and apply scientific knowledge, link different information sources and explanations and use evidence from these to justify decisions, demonstrate advanced scientific thinking in unfamiliar situations…

32. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance

33. Andreas Schleicher 16 September 2009 Impact of international Assessments How do we know that we found it? To what extent knowledge and skills matter for the success of individuals and economies

34. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada) after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1) Odds ratio College entry School marks at age 15 PISA performance at age 15

35. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Modelling the impact r Programmes to improve cognitive skills through schools take time to implement and to have their impact on students. Assume that it will take 20 years to implement reform r The impact of improved skills will not be realised until the students with greater skills move into the labour force Assume that improved PISA performance will result in improved skill-based of 2.5% of the labour-force each year r The economy will respond over time as new technologies are developed and implemented, making use of the new higher skills Estimate the total gains over the lifetime of the generation born this year.

36. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Relationship between test performance and economic outcomes Annual improved GDP from raising performance by 25 PISA points Percent addition to GDP

37. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Increase average performance by 25 PISA points (Total 115 trillion $) bn$

38. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Catching up with Finland (total 260 trillion $) bn$

39. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Catching up with Finland (in percent of GDP) % currrent GDP

40. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Raise everyone to minimum of 400 PISA points bn$

41. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Raise everyone to minimum of 400 PISA points % currrent GDP

42. Council, 18 September 2008 Education at a Glance Some conclusions r The higher economic outcomes that improved student performance entails dwarf the dimensions of economic cycles r Even if the estimated impacts of skills were twice as large as the true underlying causal impact on growth, the resulting present value of successful school reform still far exceeds any conceivable costs of improvement.

43. Council, 18 September 2008 Education at a Glance

44. Andreas Schleicher 16 September 2009 Impact of international Assessments Implications Understanding what contributes to the success of education systems and improving performance

45. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Money matters - but other things do too Question: If better education results in more money, Does more money result in better education?

46. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Spending choices on secondary schools Contribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costs per student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004) Percentage points

47. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance High ambitions and universal standards Rigor, focus and coherence Great systems attract great teachers and provide access to best practice and quality professional development

48. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Challenge and support Weak support Strong support Low challenge High challenge Strong performance Systemic improvement Poor performance Improvements idiosyncratic Conflict Demoralisation Poor performance Stagnation

49. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Human capital International Best Practice Principals who are trained, empowered, accountable and provide instructional leadership Attracting, recruiting and providing excellent training for prospective teachers from the top third of the graduate distribution Incentives, rules and funding encourage a fair distribution of teaching talent The past Principals who manage ‘a building’, who have little training and preparation and are accountable but not empowered Attracting and recruiting teachers from the bottom third of the graduate distribution and offering training which does not relate to real classrooms The best teachers are in the most advantaged communities

50. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Human capital (cont…) International Best Practice Expectations of teachers are clear; consistent quality, strong professional ethic and excellent professional development focused on classroom practice Teachers and the system expect every child to succeed and intervene preventatively to ensure this The past Seniority and tenure matter more than performance; patchy professional development; wide variation in quality Wide achievement gaps, just beginning to narrow but systemic and professional barriers to transformation remain in place

51. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance High ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability and intervention in inverse proportion to success Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action

52. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance PISA score in science School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire

53. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Public and private schools Private schools perform better Public schools perform better % Score point difference

54. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/system factors on science performance after accounting for all other factors in the model OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a 20 Schools practicing ability grouping (gross and net) Academically selective schools (gross and net) but no system-wide effect School results posted publicly (gross and net) One additional hour of science learning at school (gross and net) One additional hour of out- of-school lessons (gross and net) One additional hour of self-study or homework (gross and net) School activities to promote science learning (gross and net) Schools with greater autonomy (resources) (gross and net) Each additional 10% of public funding (gross only) Schools with more competing schools (gross only) School principal’s perception that lack of qualified teachers hinders instruction (gross only) School principal’s positive evaluation of quality of educational materials (gross only) Measured effect Effect after accounting for the socio-economic background of students, schools and countries

55. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Strong ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action Integrated educational opportunities From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning

56. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity High average performance High social equity Strong socio- economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High science performance Low science performance Early selection and institutional differentiation High degree of stratification Low degree of stratification

57. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance Paradigm shifts The old bureaucratic systemThe modern enabling system Hit and miss  Universal high standards Uniformity  Embracing diversity Provision  Outcomes Bureaucratic look-up  Devolved – look outwards Talk equity  Deliver equity Prescription  Informed profession Conformity  Ingenious Curriculum-centred  Learner-centred Interactive  Participative Individualised  Community-centred Delivered wisdom  User-generated wisdom Management  Leadership Public vs private  Public with private Culture as obstacle  Culture as capital

58. Andreas Schleicher 9 February 2010 The high cost of low educational performance www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org –All national and international publications –The complete micro-level database email: pisa@oecd.org Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org …and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion