Presentation on theme: "The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects"— Presentation transcript:
1 The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8thSession 4: Renewable Energy SourcesPresented by Dr. Barry RawnDelft University of TechnologyThank Simon. Observe wind power is external driver that makes power engineering exciting.Why? Because its differences make us revisit the basic assumptions of our systems.
2 Prospects: Perspectives: This talk is about: substantial helpful 1This talk is about:Prospects:substantial helpfuleffect on climatemajor component ofenergy security.. they are different.long term price stabilityre-think way we runpower systemPerspectives:The myths.Neither impossible nor difficult: just different.policy makers and lawyersinvestors..they are many.electricity grid and market operators
3 “stabilization triangle” substantial helpful effect on climate 2Global: the“stabilization triangle”substantial helpfuleffect on climateEuropean level:About 25-30% of effortsImage credit: cmi.princeton.eduTwo things: think in GT, and consider possibilities of existing technology200 Gt, in next 50 years:Each wedge: GT/yearInstall 2TW of wind;provide about 5 PWh
4 We’re coupling our energy system to climate patterns, and to 3We’re coupling our energy systemto climate patterns, and toweather patterns.Variable,but predictable.Regional-butrenewableImage credit: The Atmosphere, 8th edition,Lutgens and Tarbuck, 8th edition, 2001
5 Will climate change affect wind power projects? 4Will climate change affect wind power projects?Michelangeli and Loukos, 2007Rough reasoning anticipatesfuture reduction in yield…..detailed models confirm.Effect varies over globe;depends on local features;hard to predict.Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007
6 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? wind energy conversion requires momentumtransfer.1 .tradeoff, slow down2. corkscrew-> mikxing5
7 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? Wake effect: 6Will wind powerprojects causeclimate changes?Brand 2009minimum safe distance (2-10% deficit): order of tens of kilometersthe recovery distance (1%Deficit): hundreds of kilometers.Christiansen and Hasager 2005Wake effect:becoming oflegal interestBrand 2009
8 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? 7Will wind powerprojects causeclimate changes?Keith, 2004Change global mean temperature?Detectable but negligible compared toanthropogenic forcing.Takel, 2011Wind power affectscrops, local weather?First indication:helpful or neutral;but research just starting
9 Is there even that much wind power? 8Is there even that much wind power?Physical PotentialTechnical PotentialEconomic PotentialHoogwijk 2004
10 Is there even that much wind power? 9Is there even that much wind power?Technical: 96 PWh/year,Economic: 53 PWh/year at 0.13 €/kWh21 PWhr/year at €/kWhversus 15 PWh/year global electricity consumptionof global electricity consumptionHoogwijk 2004
11 Is there even that much wind power? 10Is there even that much wind power?Many regions have resource exceeding consumption, costs differ.Hoogwijk 20043 PWh/yearEuropean electricity consumption in 2008:
12 Is there enough money to build it all? 11How much has been built?As of 2004, about 0.05% of the economic potential was developedAs of 2010: perhaps 0.4%.Source: GWECGrowth rate of last 5 years: ~27%(doubles every ~3 years)Is there enough money to build it all?Exponential growth: it’s an outcomeGlobal: 0.5T USD a year to meet 450 PPM(vs bond market 90 T USD)Europe: to meet EU targets, billion a year(vs bond market 23 T, GDP of Europe: 16T)Trend in pension fund investment in infrastructure: estimated at 1 T a year
13 Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrier 12Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrierSamec 2011Sources of risk: resource uncertainty, inflation, construction delayMitigation instruments: wind derivatives, loan guarantees, construction insurance
14 Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking 13Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking30% renewable energy scenario studied in North America: (image credits NREL)Total system load:windcoalnuclearInflexible generation can impose minimum generation limit:Storage or transmission needed to avoid curtailment“Cycling” of units uncomfortable;Need emerges for new types
15 Variability and Uncertainty 14Variability and UncertaintyProvision alwaysexisted for changes:both anticipatedand unexpected.Image credit:Makarov et al, PNNL-19189, 2010Madsen and Pinson: imm.dtu.dk, 2009This applies to “msot of the time”Wind power forecasts a common tool in control rooms.
16 controllable wind power, because forecasts not 15Example:DenmarkFirst to pioneercontrollable wind power, because forecasts notperfect.Image credit:upwind.eu“Soft Storm Transition” or “Storm Control”:Farm-level control using pitchWind speed(m/s)Power production(MW)minutesImage credit:upwind.euImage credit: Gijs van Kuik, TU Delft, DUWIND
18 Switched Power Electronics Interfaces 17Switched Power Electronics InterfacesSynchronous Machine (traditional)simple, fixed, strongPower Electronic InterfaceComplex, flexible,relatively fragile
19 Example: Ireland 18 An island electric power system Must be mostly self-sufficient, even for short periodsContingency event:Loss of big generator,or introduction ofbig loadHirvonen 2003In first instances:Need to use energystored in system’srotating masses
20 70-80% Example: System Ireland collapses 60-70% immediately System 1970-80%SystemcollapsesimmediatelyExample:Ireland60-70%Systemsplits in half,collapses.2008/2009range ofoperationWind turbinerotors notforced to besynchronous:->severalrelated problemsEirgrid, All-Island TSO Facilitation of Renewables Studies, Final Study Report
21 20Example:SpainElectricity grid behaviour during a fault (lightening, tree, etc)generators can help bystaying connected,in spite of voltage transient:formerly alloweddisconnect levelnew requirementtypical transientImage credit: RED Eléctrica EspañaBömer 2011
22 21Example:SpainWind power production behaviour *before* “ride-through” requirement: nuclear sized dips.Image credit: RED Eléctrica EspañaHow are the worst situations avoided?
24 Wrapping up: From all these perspectives, which ideas to take home ? 23Wrapping up:From all these perspectives,which ideas to take home ?We’re coupling our energy systemto the climate in a new way.Variability and uncertainty in our power system: not a new thing, but changes can be expectedImp notes:Own animal:-converter interface: relatively fragile; excellent control-within available resource: extremely flexible-composition of many units can cause complexity, but also brings robustness.-Generation is always a mixture; wind power plants their own animal offering challenges but also benefits