1. Monique Hoogwijk 9 November 2006 Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions

2. Wind energy potential What determines the potential of wind energy? -Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor; -Area availability (km 2 ); -Power density of wind park (MW/km 2 ); Potential = Power Density * Available Area * Load Factor

3. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Wind electricity costs Costs; –I sp turbine (f(Rated power); –O & M; –Installation costs; –Overhead costs (concession, Environmental Impact Assessment); –Distribution costs (not included); –Grid integrated costs (back up, spinning reserve, discarded/storage costs) (not included); Output; –Wind resource, rated power Annuity; –Interest rate –Economic lifetime turbine

4. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Technical Parameters Rated power Hub height (Rotor diameter) Power density Current installed turbines and replacement rate Onshore and offshore For 2006; 2020 and 2030 + wind speed = load factor

5. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Historical Development

6. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Overview Offshore Projects Source: Van Hulle et al., 2004. Name project CountryWind farm area km 2 Nr of WTWT rated power MW Power density MW/km 2 WT rotor diameter m Horns Rev DK208028 RoedsandDK23722.3782.4 C-powerBE14603.615104 DOWECNL4580611129 North Hoyle UK5.43021180

7. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Proposal Assumptions onshoreoffshore Current average Future (2030) Current average Future (2030) Rated power (MW)1.522-610 Rotor diameter (m)60-808080-129150 Hub height (m)80 150

8. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Cost Parameters Main investment costs Turbine costs Foundation Electric installation Grid-connection Consultancy Land costs Financial costs, as security Road construction Main Operation and maintenance costs

9. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions OnshoreOffshore b Share total investment costs (%) Total investment costs (/kW)800 – 11001200 – 2000 Turbine74-8230-50 Foundation1-615-25 Electric installation1-90-30 Grid-connection2-915-30 Consultancy, land,1-3 8 Land1-3 Financial costs1-5 Road construction1-5 others8 EWEA, 2003; Junginger, 2005 ; ECN, 2004

10. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Cost developments over time Bottom up estimates – up-scaling – material – rotor diameter – etc Experience curves – Historically derived – Progress ratio and future doubling

11. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Onshore Experience Curves Source: Junginger, PhD thesis 2005

12. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Cost reductions Offshore Source: Junginger, Faaij & Turkenburg, 2003, Accepted for publication by Wind Engineering

13. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Operation and Maintenance Insurance, service and spare parts, land rent etc Varies during lifetime 2-3 % up to 5% of investment costs ( ~ 1 ¢/kWh). O&M costs can be reduced over time Here, reduction assumed with investment cost reduction

14. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Future Developments Typical Progress Ratios wind turbines: 80 – 90% 7 – 35% reduction of capital costs (71 - 300 GW). For offshore: Bottom up estimates: up to 40% reduction in 2020. Please note the global developments are not included in experience curve Sources: EWEA, 2006; Junginger, 2005, Neij et al., 2005

15. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Sensitivity Analysis; examples Rated power and load factor Replacement rate Power density Specific Investment costs Area availability Land use variation Urban planning

16. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Not Included in Technical Potential Land pattern change over time Implementation in grid over time Possibly limited approach on replacement System cost reductions e.g. combination grid connection offshore

17. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions Thank you M.Hoogwijk@ecofys.nl