1. Crime & Poverty Do overall economic conditions affect crime? – Study times of economic depression – Look at crime over time, during periods of prosperity and downturns Does unemployment affect crime? Does economic inequality affect crime? – Compare crime rates in wealthy and poor areas – Is inequality more important than income? Are poor areas that exist in or near wealthy areas particularly affected? Doesn’t address individual characteristics

2. Early studies 1800’s France - Guerry – Wealthiest regions more property crime, less violent crime Opportunities – more stuff to steal – Lack of education not related to crime More education, more violence 1800’s France - Quetelet – Men more likely to commit crime Especially poor, unemployed, undereducated – Opportunities important Poor areas had less crime Crime more likely to happen in better off areas, by poor and unemployed – Inequality within richer areas might breed resentment Crime consequence of moral character; virtues break down if poor

3. Crime and overall economic conditions More crime during economic slumps – Pratt and Lowenkamp: During 1976 - 1994, homicides were negatively associated with economic activity Contraindications – Great Depression (1928-1940) – Henry and Short General crime rate does not seem to increase Crimes of violence declined – Cho - 1970 - Percentage of people below poverty level in 49 largest cities not associated with seven FBI index crimes – During the 1960’s, as the economy expanded, crime and delinquency increased – During the 1990’s, as the economy expanded, crime and delinquency decreased

4. Crime and poverty Strong association between poverty and crime – Ehrlich - 1940, 50, 60 - association between property crime and poor households – 1974 - Loftin and Hill - index of structural poverty Infant mortality, education, income, single parent families Strongly correlated with State homicide rates – 1990 - Lee - concentration of poverty is important – Stretsky et al - More concentrated the poverty, the higher the robbery and homicide rate

5. Unemployment and delinquency Hypothesis: Unemployment  poverty  crime Adult unemployment effect on delinquency – Glaser and Rice: adult unemployment reduces delinquency, maybe because parents are home – Weatherburn and Lind: delinquency high when adult unemployment high Youth unemployment effect on delinquency – Several studies report strong positive correlation between delinquency and youth unemployment – Ihlanfeldt -- More than 20 percent of difference in property crime between black and white neighborhoods caused by lack of job opportunities for youth in the latter

6. Unemployment and adult crime By early 1980’s several studies demonstrated that unemployment and crime rose and fell together (weak relationship) In a 1987 review of 63 studies, Chiricos found a significant positive relationship between unemployment and crime, especially after 1970 – More unemployment, more crime – Easier to discover in small units (e.g., cities) because they are more homogeneous than larger units (e.g., States and regions) Disagreeing, Land, McCall and Cohen found the opposite for homicides – As unemployment increased, homicides decreased! Land, Cantor and Russell found a weak negative relationship between unemployment and crime between 1960-1980 – As unemployment increased, crime decreased – Agreed that the positive relationship found by Chiricos is more likely to be found in smaller units of analysis and for property crimes

7. Unemployment Rate (percent) 1989-2008 ages 16 years and over Bureau of Labor Statistics

8. Crime Rates 1989 - 2008 Uniform Crime Reports

9. Types of jobs and crime White – 1970 -1990: decline of manufacturing jobs  increased poverty and unemployment  increased robberies, burglaries, drug offenses – PoliceIssues link - manufacturing jobs PoliceIssues link - manufacturing jobs Shihadeh – 1970 -1990: decline of low-skill jobs  increased poverty  increased violence

10. Problems in Interpreting Research on Economic Conditions

11. Problem #1: Poverty is subjective Relative to locale Differently measured Unemployment is an unexact concept – People not actively seeking work are not counted – Count the under-employed, poorly paid dead-end jobs, bad working conditions How people feel about their jobs is not measured

12. Problem #2: Economy and crime -- Two contradictory theories, with support for each! Traditional view: relationship between economic conditions and crime is negative (poverty causes crime) – Good economy, low crime; bad economy, high crime Oppositional view: Positive relationship (crime is like any other economic activity) – Good economy, high crime; bad economy, low crime Ploscowe - 1931: support for positive relationship – Increase of economic well-being during 150-year period accompanied by increase in crime – Good economy  greater criminal opportunities  more crime Gurr – 1977: support for positive and negative relationships – Crime actually declined from 1840’s-1930’s – Later increases may be due to better police reporting – Different causal process at work in each time frame 19 th. Century - economic activity positively related to crime 20 th. Century - economic “distress” had no effect, but as total productivity increased, so did crime

13. Problem #3: Economic change has a delayed (lagged) effect on crime Unemployment takes time to increase crime - unemployed don’t feel the full brunt of being out of work until other sources of support are exhausted Perhaps there is no corresponding “lag time” for increased opportunities to commit crime - economic improvement immediately increases criminal opportunities Cantor and Lang - 1946-1982 - US unemployment rates and crime index – Immediate “opportunity” effect and lagged “motivation” effect. As unemployment increased… Robbery, burglary and theft immediately decreased but then increased the next year Homicide and auto theft decreased, did not increase the next year No effect on rape and assault

14. Problem #4: Determining the size of the unit that economic factors affect Local conditions are very important – In economically stagnant inner cities, there may be declining amount of legal work and increasing amount of illegal work (e.g., dealing drugs) – Early involvement in crime and incarceration may limit later opportunities – Alienation and diminished expectations – Low-paying work is stigmatized – Violence substitutes for normal social controls – Once socialized into illegal activities, people may continue them

15. Problem #5: Determining which factors cause crime (problem of multicollinearity) High crime areas have many factors that might cause crime – Poverty – Unemployment – Single-parent households – High density – Poor schools Study by Land - the most important determinants of homicide were clustered in a single factor: “resource deprivation/affluence” – This factor includes measures for... poverty & income inequality percent African-American Percent children not living with both parents

16. Poverty: below a fixed level of income or material goods Inequality: relative deprivation Consistent findings – Economic inequality associated with homicide – Economic inequality associated with violent crime Firearms violence strongly correlated with inequality after controlling for poverty and access to firearms Is it a specific kind of inequality (e.g., white/black)? – Messner and Golden - 1992 - increased inequality between blacks and whites associated with homicide – Other studies report mixed results Problem #6: Distinguishing between poverty and economic inequality

17. Poverty and economic inequality -- Conclusions Overall inequality (gap between rich and poor) is associated with violent crime Key factor may not be how many poor, but how many wealthy – When there are only poor people around, crime may be lower – Economics may have most direct affect on crime within the urban “underclass” - pockets of extreme poverty Strong association between poverty and violence Direct effect of poverty on crime is mediated by many other variables – High-crime communities have a host of factors - poverty, unemployment, single-parent households, poor schools – These factors may be more proximate causes of crime; e.g. Poverty  poor schools  unemployment  broken homes  crime