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Hale & Tempest Understanding the Strategies Big Pharma are Developing to win in the Global Generics Market Dr. Brian W Tempest www.briantempest.com Istanbul, Turkey 27 September 2011
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Hale & Tempest Dr Brian Tempest advises Companies, Banks, High Net Worth Individuals and Investment Funds on their Strategy in the Emerging World based on his wide experience in China, Japan, South East Asia and India where he has lived for the last decade. Brian has worked for Ranbaxy Laboratories since 1995 holding the position of Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer until 2005. He was then Chief Mentor and Non Executive Director until 2008 when he retired. He is one of the few westerners to have led a Sensex Nifty 50 Indian blue Chip MNC and as a result has a valuable insight into India. Brian has also worked for Glaxo as Regional Director Far East and Regional Director Middle East & Africa from 1985 to 1992. Brian has worked in the Pharmaceutical Industry for the last 40 years and has managed Healthcare businesses in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Australasia, China, Japan and India. He has also led many sessions at Investor Meetings held around the world. He is now Independent Chairman of Religare Capital Markets PLC and a Non Executive Director of Fortis Healthcare India with 62 hospitals and SRL the largest Indian Diagnostic Company which conducts 70,000 tests per day. Brian is an international advisor to MAPE, India and the United Nations (UNCTAD) in addition to being a member of the SCRIP Global awards panel he is on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Generic Medicines. Brian speaks at global conferences and more information on these presentations can be found on his website www.briantempest.com. Brian has a PhD in Polymer Chemistry from Lancaster University in 1971 and in 2009 he became Chairman of the Advisory Board for the Lancaster University Management School which ranks 4 th in the UK He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry and is a Chartered Chemist. He is now Chairman and Senior Partner of Hale & Tempest
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Hale & Tempest Generic Medicines are part of the Solution for Ageing Populations
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Hale & Tempest China/India with 37% population, 14% of wealth and most of the GDP growth
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Hale & Tempest Exploring the Strategic Drivers - Big Pharma
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Hale & Tempest Only 21 2010 FDA New Drug Approvals Source: Fiercebiotech 22 Jan 2011
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Hale & Tempest USA DOJ Fines on Big Pharma Source: Chemistry World Jan 2011
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Hale & Tempest USA Batch Recalls Source: Deutche Bank 29 March 2011
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Hale & Tempest Approvals & Reimbursements Source: Pharmatimes UK August 2011
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Hale & Tempest Big Pharma Losing to Local Players Source GSK Presentation
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Hale & Tempest Emerging World Share of Pharma Source EIU, OECD, WHO, IMS, Roland Berger
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Hale & Tempest Top 8 Cos in Emerging Markets 2008
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Hale & Tempest Increasing Pace of Emerging Markets AcquisitionsEmerging Market Investor Days March 16, 2010 December 10, 2009 July 2, 2009 Large Cap Pharma Entering Generics (Egypt, Pakistan, Near East ) (MENA, LatAm, Asia-Pac) (Algeria) With the slow-down of Western markets, Pharma are rapidly repositioning to focus on emerging markets for growth
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Hale & Tempest Key Big Pharma-Generics Deals
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Hale & Tempest Evaluating Market Expansion - Generic Companies
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Hale & Tempest Asia vs. the Western Generic Companies Source: Factset, Religare
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Hale & Tempest Pricing Pressures Source: Watson
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Hale & Tempest European Generic Prices Source Ranbaxy
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Hale & Tempest European Generic Prices Source Ranbaxy
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Hale & Tempest USA - ANDA Growing Approval Times Source FDA Chief M Hamburg, GpHA Conference February 2010 2005 16.3 months average 2009 26.7 months average Around 2000 ANDAs awaiting approval FDA explained as a result of staff shortages Regulatory filing fees needed
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Hale & Tempest Season of Warning Letters/Import Alerts Source: Deutche Bank July 2011
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Hale & Tempest USA - Litigation Success Rates Source RBC Capital Markets January 15 2010 Patent Challenges on rise - 65 FTFs in 2009 Success rate at 48% - or 76% including deals 3 courts hold 69% with 36% success e.g. NJ 4 courts never ruled against generics e.g. NY At risk launches on the rise – 6 in 2009 Teva has 12 of the 28 at risk launches – 2002/9 Settlements on the rise – 54 in 2009 Teva accounts for a third of all settlements Authorized generics on the rise – 25 in 2009 Watson represents a fifth of all AGs
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Hale & Tempest Generic Profit Margin Profile in descending order source: Deutsche Bank July 2010
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Hale & Tempest Top 25 Global Generic Companies Source: Generics Bulletin 10 June 2011
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Hale & Tempest Next 24 Global Generic Companies Source: Generics Bulletin 10 June 2011
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Hale & Tempest Patent Expiries Source: Sandoz
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Hale & Tempest In 2016 Top 10 8 will be Biologic/Resp Source: Sandoz EGA Conference 2011
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Hale & Tempest Leveraging the Power of Branded Generics in Receptive Markets - Indian Pharma Companies
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Hale & Tempest WHO Pre Qualified Products
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Hale & Tempest Indian Generic FDA ANDA Approvals
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Hale & Tempest Niche Technology Source: MAPE
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Hale & Tempest India – Share of CRAMS Market
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Hale & Tempest Lots of Opportunity for CROs in India Source: clinicaltrials.gov 16 Feb 2011
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Hale & Tempest Future Development Opportunities – Macro Strategic Changes
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Hale & Tempest Pfizer & Hisun
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Hale & Tempest Pharma Wholesaler sets up China JV UK Coop – the world’s largest consumer cooperative GBP£10b UK company running food stores, banks, insurance, funeral homes, travel agents, farms and pharmacies 3 rd rank pharmacy chain in UK with 800 stores Owns UK pharmaceutical wholesaler Sants Opus Marketing JV with Day Lewis Pharmacy Chain offers 113 products under Prospect brand Tianjin Tasly Sants Manufacturing JV opened 2010, “production under way” Jun 2011 With Investment GBP£20m, 200 staff
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Hale & Tempest China Pharma Industry Capex Plans Source: Stravencom
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Hale & Tempest India Pharma Industry Capex Plans Source: MAPE
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Hale & Tempest FDA DMFs from India
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Hale & Tempest FDA DMFs from China
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Hale & Tempest Chinese ANDAs
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Hale & Tempest Endangered Elements Source: Chemistry World 2011
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Hale & Tempest A New World Order is Coming
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Hale & Tempest Thank You brian.tempest@clara.co.uk www.briantempest.com
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