1. CSES Review 2004: Coastal Zone Moving to Horizontal Integration

2. Summary l What we did l Where we stopped for lack of funding l Shift in concept to watershed management l Seed money for one year to get started: – West side hydrology [sediments & water quality]. – Multidimensional watershed management. Where we propose to go

3. From Coastal Hazards to Watershed Management l 1995-2000 focused on impacts of CV on coastal zone, particularly hazards (flooding, erosion, and invasive spp.) Work done in full collaboration with Washington Dept. of Ecology (WDOE). l Used CV results to project impacts of CC for 1997 National Assessment (Mote et al. 1999, 2003). l As result of Strategic Plan for 2000-2005, decided to shift focus of coastal work to watershed management –response to acute need of Shorelands Mgmt. Program in WDOE –to facilitate horizontal integration within CIG. l FY ‘01 funds insufficient to support initiative. Group put on hold.

4. Human activities (fishing) Freshwater habitat (water quality, quantity & timing) Estuarine habitat (water quality, mixing processes) Ocean habitat Climate change (altered water cycle) Human activities (resource & land use) Human activities (aquaculture, development) Climate change (sea level rise & ocean mixing) Health & Viability of PNW salmon Climate change Integrated Coastal Watershed Management

5. Research Design for Coastal Watershed Management Overall objectives: (1) Examine multiple pathway linkages between human activities at watershed scale, e.g., land use/land cover change, including forestry, changes in stream hydrology and conditions, effects on riparian and in-stream habitats, salmon productivity, and general estuarine ecology (2) Analyze implications for resource management for specific resource issues (3) Apply findings to a growing institutional movement among some stakeholders for multidimensional resource management at the watershed level.

6. Some Research Questions Climate Impacts on the Estuary l How will a world of multiple stresses--climate variability, climate change, and anthropogenic effects-- affect streamflow and in-stream habitat? l What effects are projected levels of climate change in the PNW likely to have on estuarine water quality, especially salinity and temperature? l What effects will increasing sea level rise have on physical oceanographic parameters in estuaries, especially ocean-estuary exchange rates, mixing patterns, salinity, and the tidal prism? l What effects will estuarine water quality changes have on primary and secondary productivity? And will such changes significantly affect the shellfish industry and estuarine susceptibility to invasive spp.?

7. Research Questions,cont’d. Effective Institutions for Integrated Coastal Management l How are the prototype watershed-centric management regimes which have emerged in WA. & OR. structured and how functionally similar are they? l How do these regimes function with respect to management of the resources and integration of state and federal resource management agency mandates ? l How is such planning and management then integrated with what exists at the local government level and how adaptable are these structures to climate variability and change?

8. FY ‘03 SEED MONEY TO GET STARTED l Adapt West side (Cascades) hydrologic models to deal with sediments & water quality issues. (1 grad. RA). l Begin field work--observations, interviewing, etc.- -in prototype watershed-centric management structures linking Fed./State/local government activities. (1 grad. RA--detailed comparison of Skagit Co., WA. & Tillamook Co., OR.).

9. Projected Decision Support Utility of New Approach l On terrestrial side, assist decision-makers’ capabilities to assess & manage risks more comprehensively, combining the climate and human footprints in determining appropriate margins for limiting development, maintaining habitat, and reducing stream degeneration--esp. applicable to threatened & endangered ESU’s of salmonids.

10. Decision Support Utility, cont’d. l On marine side, distinguish between estuarine & coastal ocean impacts of CV & CC. Develop comprehensive understanding of estuarine dynamics in specific locations in order to assess likely effects of CC. l Re: coastal ocean, primary policy questions relate to understanding the effects of CV & CC on the marine survival of salmonids & how this information can inform decisions about releases of smolts to the ocean & escapement of adults on their return to spawning streams. l Recognize the entire suite of risks faced by salmonids, both terrestrial & marine, and adjust policies in the terrestrial dimension to include the magnitude of risk represented in the marine dimension.