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Financial Crises East Asia 1997, Russia 1998, Brazil ?
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Background to 1997 East Asian crisis Fundamentalist view Contagion view Three factors: Macro policy in OECD Domestic mismanagement Investor panic
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Exchange Rates 6-12.971-5.98 Thailand-48.7%24.7% Malaysia-352.1 Indonesia-44.4-53 Philippines-33.91.3 Hong Kong0.0 S. Korea-47.721.9 Taiwan-14.81.2 Singapore-154.0 Goldstein 1998
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Stock Markets 6-12.971-5.98 Thailand-29.3%3.7% Malaysia-44.8-2.4 Indonesia-44.48.2 Philippines-33.518.2 Hong Kong-29.4-6.2 S. Korea-49.5-.9 Taiwan-9.3.3 Singapore-23.0-7.1 Goldstein 1998
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IMF Growth Forecasts for 1998 May ’97April ’98Change Indonesia7.4-5.0-12.4 Thailand7.0-3.1-10.1 S. Korea6.3-0.8-7.1 Malaysia7.92.5-5.4 Philippines6.42.5-3.9 Singapore6.13.5-2.6 Hong Kong5.03.0-2.0 China8.87.0-1.8 Taiwan6.35.0-1.3 Goldstein 1998
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External Causes Credit boom in the 1990s –Low interest rates in the U.S. and Japan –Expansion of portfolio funds –$420 billion net flows to Asian emerging markets Deteriorating current account –Overvalued real exchange rates –Slowing exports and increasing competition
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External Sector Real Ex Rate Overvalued Current Acct (% GDP) Thailand6.7%-7.9% Malaysia9.3- 4.9 Indonesia4.2-3.3 Philippines11.9-4.7 Hong Kong22.0-1.3 S. Korea-7.6-4.9 Taiwan-5.54.0 Singapore13.515.7 Goldstein 1998
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Financial Market Vulnerabilities Capital inflows concentrated: –Real estate (30-40% of bank lending) –Equities –Borrowing in foreign currencies w/ short maturities Why?
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Financial Market Supervision Weak banking sectors—high ratios of nonperforming loans Lack of transparency, sound accounting procedures Inadequate loan-loss reserves Corrupt lending Banks as quasi-fiscal agents
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Precipitating event Thailand—CB reserves depleted, rolling over government debt S. Korea—rolling over foreign-currency denominated bank liabilities Indonesia—corporations attempt to hedge their currency positions
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Contagion Trade linkages? –Hard to explain contagion from small countries to large ones Competitive devaluation? –Same objection Goldstein’s “wake-up call” hypothesis –Do capital markets sleep? –Rational buffalo
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Russia 1998 Fixed exchange rate, overvalued in real terms Incentive to run a fiscal deficit –Election of 1996 –Collapse of tax revenues Nominal debt High interest rates Central Banking dilemmas Bail-out of 1998
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Why not Brazil in 2002? Public debt to GDP: 60% Of which, linked to the dollar: 40% Spread over U.S. treasuries: 18% Devaluation: >40% in 2002 $30 billion IMF program in August Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) elected in October
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First Steps Reaffirm primary surplus goal of 3.75% of GDP, an IMF condition Propose legislation to strengthen Central Bank’s independence Conservative appointments Postponing populist agenda
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Discussion Do IMF rescue packages help countries that face financial crises?
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