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Global Financial Imbalances: The Future Impact of Asian and Middle East Surpluses Karen Johnson April 24, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Financial Imbalances: The Future Impact of Asian and Middle East Surpluses Karen Johnson April 24, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Financial Imbalances: The Future Impact of Asian and Middle East Surpluses Karen Johnson April 24, 2006

2 Exchange Rates: Chinese RMB Source: FRB weights

3 Exchange Rates: Korean Won Source: FRB weights

4 Exchange Rates: Japanese Yen Source: FRB weights

5 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Source: IMF WEO

6 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Source: IMF WEO *Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan

7 Global Oil Prices (WTI) Source: Commodity Research Bureau

8 Revenue Flows to Fuel Exporters Source: IMF WEO

9 Foreign Exchange Reserves Source: IMF *Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong

10 Foreign Exchange Reserves: Aggregate of Fuel Exporters Source: IMF *No data available for Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, or Syria **2005 data not yet available for Angola, Rep. of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sudan, Bahrain, UAE, or Yemen

11 Portfolio Inflows to the United States Source: Treasury International Capital System (www.treas.gov/tic/index.html)www.treas.gov/tic/index.html *Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong **Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE

12 Inflation: Consumer Prices Source: IMF WEO

13 Gross Issuance of Chinese Sterilization Bonds Source: Bloomberg

14 Distortions Implicit subsidy to exports Distort allocation of domestic fixed investment Continue to attract capital inflow

15 Downside of Reserve Accumulation Complications posed for monetary policy Distortions on bank behavior Limits on financial sector development Price signals altered by the exchange rate


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