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Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

2 Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2007

3 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2007

4 U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2007

5 Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Corn----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 1967 1967 1967 Acres(M. P. A.) 78.3 Yield 149.1 Supply(M. Bu) 12512 Use: Feed 5975 Ethanol 2150 Food, Seed 1385 Exports 2250 Ending Stocks 682 752 822 Projected Price $3.50 $3.30 $3.10

6 Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Corn----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 752 752 752 Acres(MPA) 84.0 87.0 90.0 Acres (MHA) 76.0 79.8 81.4 Yield 147 152.8 157 Supply(M. Bu) 11934 1296213542 Use: Feed 5800 Ethanol 3200 Food, Seed 1400 Exports 1925 Ending Stocks 350 637 1500 Projected Price $5.50 $3.60 $3.00

7 Wheat Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

8 Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

9 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

10 U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2007

11 Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Wheat----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 571 Acres(M. A. Planted) 57.3 Yield 38.7 Supply(M. Bu) 2498 Use: Food, Seed 1006 Feed, Resid 145 Exports 875 Ending Stocks 444 472 500 Projected Price $4.40 $4.20 $4.00

12 Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Wheat----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 472 472 472 Acres(M. A. Planted) 58.0 60.0 62.0 Acres (M.A. Harvested) 49.3 51.0 52.7 Yield 38.0 42.5 44.0 Supply(M. Bu) 2445 2742 2891 Use: Food, Seed 1011 Feed, Resid 300 Exports 925 Ending Stocks 350 506 780 Projected Price $5.25 $4.30 $3.20

13 Soybean Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

14 Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

15 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

16 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs. Price, 1990-2007 ‘06 ‘05 ‘01 ‘00 ‘99 ‘98 ‘97 ‘96 ‘95 ‘94 ‘93 ‘92‘91 ‘90 ‘04 ‘03 ‘02

17 U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2007

18 U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

19 U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

20 Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 449 449 449 Acres(M. P. A.) 75.2 75.5 75.8 Yield 42.5 42.7 42.9 Supply(M. Bu) 3611 3642 3666 Use: Crushing 1780 Exports 1100 Seed, Feed 166 Ending Stocks 461 595 729 Projected Price $6.50 $6.30 $6.10

21 Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 595 595 595 Acres(MA Planted) 68.0 70.5 72.0 Acres (MA Harvested) 67.0 69.4 70.8 Yield 38.0 41.5 44.0 Supply(M. Bu) 3145 3479 3714 Use: Crushing 1820 Exports 1125 Seed, Feed 164 Ending Stocks 120 370 650 Projected Price $8.50 $7.10 $5.50

22 Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

23 Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2007

24 U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2007

25 Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 66.0 66.0 66.0 Acres(M. P. A.) 6.5 6.5 6.5 Supply(M. Bu) 343 343 343 Use: Food & Seed 45 Exports 150 Feed 110 Ending Stocks 27 38 49 Projected Price $3.40 $3.20 $3.00

26 Cotton Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

27 Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

28 U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

29 U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

30 Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Cotton----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 6.0 6.0 6.0 Acres(M. P. A.) 15.25 15.27 15.30 Yield 815 819 823 Supply(MB) 27.7 27.8 28.0 Use: Domestic 5.0 Exports 14.0 Ending Stocks 7.8 8.8 9.8 Projected Price/cwt $54 $48 $42

31 Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Cotton----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 8.8 8.8 8.8 Acres(M. P. A.) 12.8 13.0 13.2 Acres (MA Harvested) 11.6 11.8 12.0 Yield 750 815 850 Supply(MB) 26.9 28.8 30.0 Use: Domestic 4.5 Exports 18.0 Ending Stocks 5.2 6.3 8.5 Projected Price/cwt $65 $54 $47

32 What Could Change The Outlook? n South America n Plant Mix n Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S., World – Oil Supplies, War n Exchange Rates n China n Weather


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