1. Four Wave of Migration between Mexico and the United States 1. 1890s - 1930. Mexican-born population of the U.S. rose from about 100,000 in 1900 to about 1 million in 1930. About 2/3 were probably legal migrants. The reasons for this early flow wereSeasonal agricultural laborers refugees from the Mexican Revolution family-settler migrants 2. 1930s. About 600,000 settlers moved back south during the Great Depression. 3. 1942 - 1964. The Bracero Program was an organized bilateral recruitment of agricultural laborers. During this period 4.6 million contracts were made, and many more workers undoubtedly entered without contracts. During this period Operation Wetback (1954-1955) generated many apprehensions/expulsions (about 175,000 during the summer of 1954 alone). 1.1 million apprehensions/expulsions of illegals occurred in 1954.

2. 3. 1965 -. Continued flow of illegals along with greatly increased legal migration that made Mexico the number one source of legal U.S. migrants, as well as illegal migrants.

3. Determinants of Legal and Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States Economic Migrants Demand - pull 1.Employment and wage opportunities in the US 2.Labor recruitment (e.g., Braceros) Supply - push 1.Unemployment and underemployment in Mexico 2.Low wages in Mexico 3.Crop failures Network and other factors 1.Job and wage information 2.Sons following father 3.Family unification Government policy

4. Non-Economic Migrants 1.Demand - pull Family unification 1.Supply - push Flee war/persecution 2.Network and other factors Communication Transportation Assistance organizations Desire for new experience/adventure

9. Residual Methods P = P + B - D + NM t t-1 1.From the perspective of a source country, specifically Mexico, we could focus on NM NM = P + P - B + D t t-1 = ΔP - (B + D) Goldberg survived the 1960 population of Mexico to 1970, compared predicted 1970 to actual 1970, and adjusted this estimate of emigration for the estimated number of immigrants from Mexico who were enumerated in the 1970 U.S. Census. Conclusion: 1.6 million uncounted Mexicans moved to the U.S. Between 1960 and 1970

10. Robinson (1980) assumes that The deaths of illegal U.S. Residents are reported, but that their entry is not reported; Thus, the actual deaths should differ from the number expected on the basis or mortality rates of the known population. Death Rates POP x m = expected deaths t where m = mortality rate Actual deaths - expected deaths = deaths to illegal POP illegal POP = (deaths to illegal POP) / m

11. Robinson focuses on the illegal white male population aged 20 to 44. He finds a deviant in deaths, especially from violent causes, for two five-state areas, one in the Southwest and one in the East. Robinson’s estimates: 1.an illegal population of 1.0 to 1.3 million, 1960-1970 2.An illegal population of 1.6 to 2.0 million, 1970-1975

12. Sex Ratio Method Bean, King and Passel (1983) Develop hypothetical sex ratios for Mexico, by age class, assuming no emigration from Mexico; Compare these ratios with corresponding ratios reported in the 1980 Mexican census; Estimate the deficit of Mexico males, 15 to 39; Assume alternatively that 60 and 65% of illegal Mexican migration to the U.S. is made up of males; Assume alternatively that 60 and 65% of this migration is in the ages of 15 to 39, and Assume that Mexican emigration is exclusively directed to the U.S. Conclusion:In 1980, no more than 4 million Mexican Nationals resided illegally in the U.S.