1. Unit 2: Demography (Population Studies)

2. Implications of Population growth
Real Time Population
The World at Seven
The World’s Most Typical
Hans Rosling explains population growth and its implications using

3. I. Population Statistics
1st question: “Where is the data coming from?”
After all, Figures don’t lie, but the liars can
figure!
Basic terminology: What does correlation mean???

4. Correlation Coefficient
Measures how related 2 variables are
Shown as #s b/t +1 and -1
Determines:
STRENGTH
Closer to 1/-1 = strong correlation
Closer to 0 = weak/no correlation
DIRECTION (positive or negative)
Determined through statistical magic!

5. Practice determining Strength…
Which is stronger?
A. -.8 or +.5
B. .2 or - .3
C. .9 or .1
D. .5 or -.52
E. -.9 or .9

6. Let’s look at Scatter Plots (they show the variables being measured)
Remember, close to zero = weak relationship/unrelated variables
Ask yourself: Is it going NE or SE?
NE = “Positive” = both variables increase OR both decrease (“direct relationship”)
SE = “Negative” = One variable increases  other decreases (“inverse relationship”)
Correlations do NOT = causation!!!

7. Scatter Plots

8. TRUE or FALSE
If there seems to be no spatial relationship among the plots than there is a very weak or insignificant relationship among the two variables.
If the plots all fall along an imaginary line except for one, then the relationship has to be strong.
If all the plots fall along an imaginary line the relationship is 1.0, or close to 1.0.

9. positive correlation: .42
Slight
positive correlation:
.42

10. 10 Questions Positive or negative correlation? Strong or weak?
Identical twins’ IQ scores?
Age and wealth?
Caloric intake to weight?
Affluence and family size
Geographical knowledge and sexiness?
AP Human Geo GPA and score on AP Exam
Alcohol Intake and balance/consciousness LOL
Sarcasm in answers and Exam Scores??
Washing hands and likelihood of getting swine flu?
Next scatter plot… what correlation coefficient would you expect?

11. Let’s relate this to something that affects you…
What do colleges look at when you apply?
What is the relationship b/t the almighty GPA and college success (freshman year GPA)
How about the ALMIGHTY SAT score and college success???
Actual statistics: .48 and .42 respectively
What about combined? ONLY .55!! Surprised???
Why are freshmen so unpredictable??

12. Variables: Math Score on SAT and GPA in college

14. If they really have no clue who will succeed and who will not,
Question?
If they really have no clue who will succeed and who will not,
why use these statistics for admittance into colleges?

15. Why and how did the College Board change the SAT a few yrs. ago?
According to the College Board…Did the changes to the SAT impact its predictive validity?
Our expectations are that the predictive validity of the total test will increase modestly with the addition of writing as a third measure of students' critical thinking skills. In a recent validity study, the SAT Subject Test in Writing was judged to be the best single test in predicting freshman grade point average for all ethnic/racial groups except Asian Americans. In that same study, adding SAT Writing Subject Test scores to SAT scores added .02 to .03 incremental validity above SAT and high school grades. Another study, conducted by the University of California, showed the Writing Subject Test added .06 to.08 to the overall predictive validity, while the most recent study indicates that it added .02 for students in most majors except those in education; for those students, the increment rose to about .06.

16. QUIZ TIME!!!
No Talking!

17. Back to Population Statistics…

18. 1. Birth Rate (CBR) Calculated how? High =40+ Low = <15
Wealth and CBR
Positive/negative correlation?
Exceptions: China (12) E. Europe (12)Low wealth and low CBR. Otherwise, high wealth, low CBR.
Highest: Chad (51) and Niger (50)
Lowest: 8
U.S.: 13
World average = 20
MDCs = 11, Dev = 22, w/o China = 25, LDCs = 34
Babies having babies in Niger!

19. 2. Death Rate (CDR) Calculated? High = 18 Low = <10
Stat can change dramatically
War, pandemic, famine, etc.
W. Hem in 16th Century was 900/1,000
Correlation Wealth and CDR?
NOT Really?
Highest: Sierra Leone (18) & E. Europe ~15
Lowest: U.A.E (1) and Qatar & Oman (2)
U.S.: 8
Swaziland at 30 in 2008, 15 in 2010

20. 3. Natural Rate of Increase (NRI) or (RNI)
Calculated how?
Ex: CBR 20 CDR 5 THEN NIR = 15/1000 = 1.5%
High = 2-3% Low = Less than 1%
USA formula CBR 13.8 minus CDR 8.4 = 5.4/1,000 = .54%
Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, U.K., Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland, Albania, Kosovo, Spain have slightly pos, NRI. A number of others have a 0 or negative NRI. Why? Highest in world = Niger.

21. 4. Population growth rates (PGR)
Calculated how?
High = 2+% Low = <1% or negative
U.S.: 13.8 (CBR) – 8.4 (CDR) + Net migration 4.3 (per 1000) = 9.7/1000 = .97%
Population Growth trends
Negative/Positive Correlations?
Women’s rights Impact of immigration?
Economic growth
Literacy rate

22. Notice Some Trends?

23. 5. Total Fertility Rates (TFR) (ages 15-49???)
2.5 for the world today
8.1 highest in history
2.33 stability = “replacement rate”
2.1 in industrialized nations
2.5+ in peripheral country
Why not 2.0?
Mortality rates of women before they can have children
Comparisons:
High: Niger (7.6), Chad (7.0), Somalia (6.8) (a lot of babies!!)
U.S.: 1.9
Low: Singapore (1.3) Taiwan & South Korea (1.3)
Lower fertility rates: Cause for optimism?

24. Singapore Social Development Unit 1984(started) 2006(changed)
to improve the social networking between busy working individuals
organize activities for its members

25. Social Development Unit
“Dare to Date"
“The Chemistry Guide: When Boy Meets Girl”, '' focusing on the overworked, the shy, and the "cosmetically challenged."
The guide reminds hopeful singles that "Skin-care products are must-have investments" and "There's no bigger turnoff than a foul mouth, reeking with leftovers from lunch!"
2 free publications

26. Population Policies What types of population policies exist ?
What types of population policies exist ?

27. Pro-natalist or Expansive

28. + Maintenance or Stability 2 babies .1

29. 2009 36 countries have pro-natalist policies
67 countries have anti-natalist policies
33 countries have maintenance policies

30. *Why would a country want a pro-natalist policy ?
replaces those lost in war and civil unrest
build up the military
replace retiring folks in the workforce
support the increasing number of seniors
occupy parts of a country that are virtually empty
help develop the resources of a state
lead to economic growth
increase majority/minority percentages
gain more influence internationally

31. Examples: of Pro-natalist Policies Past and Present

32. U.S.S.R.
1944 – 1992
awarded medals to women in order to encourage a high fertility rate.
6 – 8 million famine
8 – 10 million Stalin’s repression
14 million military losses in WW2
20 million civilian losses in WW2
Total 50 million +
Why ?

33. 3 Categories of Medals were Presented
Motherhood Medals
Order of the Glory of Motherhood or
Order of Maternal Glory
Order of Mother Heroine

34. Motherhood Medals 5 children 8,000,000 awarded 2nd Class 1st Class

35. Order of Maternal Glory
3rd Class
2nd Class
1st Class
7 children - 2,000,000 awarded
8 children - 1,000,000 awarded
9 children - 500,000 awarded

36. Order Mother Heroine
10 children ,000 awarded

37. Germany Cross of Honor of the German Mother 1938 - 1944

38. Bronze 3rd Class Mother’s Nazi Cross 4, 5
Bronze 3rd Class Mother’s Nazi Cross 4, 5
Silver 2nd Class Mother’s Nazi Cross 6, 7
Gold 1st Class Mother’s Nazi Cross 8 or more
Diamond – 14 or more ?

39. German Mother’s Cross 14 children ? 17 diamonds

40. Russia Recent incentives
Year of the Family
5000 medals given out in 2011 for 25 years plus
seat slopes to centre so couples in conflict will be brought together

41. Russia Recent incentives continued
July 8 new national holiday – Day of Family, Love, and Fidelity
earlier births
stable families – reduce divorce rate,
revive family values
promote patriotism – babies for Russia
A 3rd child means wealth will
be tripled in the third millennium.
“Give me Life Campaign”
medals for long married couples with children (~ 25 years)

42. Ulyanovsk Oblast, Russia - Family Contact Day (Conception Day)
Grand Prize winners of “Give Birth to a Patriot on Russia’s Independence Day” Contest

43. Japan
Princesses Masako
& Aiko

44. Japan Government Incentives improved parental leave (1 yr. @ 66.7%)
local govn’ts (rural) cash bonuses
monthly allowance (~ 300/child)
New Angel Plan (more available daycare & less working hours)
free pre-natal care and deliveries
Companies are urged to have family-friendly packages
monthly payments (Matsushita)
shorter hours (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone)
fertility treatments paid for (Canon)
$400 (1st) - $40,000 (5th) (Softbank)
$1000 – 1st, $2000 – 2nd, $20,300 for 3rd + (Koei Tecmo )

45. Iran Why ? Anti-natalist or pro-natalist ?
1967 – first anti-natalist policy
1979 – pro-natalist
1988 – anti-natalist
2006 – pro-natalist
Why ?

46. 1979 start of Islamic Revolution family planning program –
western influence
promotion of contraception
by health officials banned
procreation to bolster the
ranks of “soldiers for Islam”
(8 year war with Iraq)
Ayatollah Khomeini

47. Khomeini’s pro-natalist policy resulted in GR of 3.2%
Total fertility rate
rose to 7

48. 1988

49. 2006
“I am against saying that two children are enough. Our country has a lot of capacity. It has the capacity for many children to grow in it. It even has the capacity for 120 million people. Westerners have got problems. Because their population growth is negative, they are worried and fear that if our population increases, we will triumph over them.” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

51. Why would a country want an anti-natalist policy ?
cannot afford to provide for them
overpopulation concerns - limited available resources
local, national, international SCALE
allow more women in the workforce and boost economy
repress a group of people
separate policy for certain groups or
different applications of the policy (see 2nd last slide)

52. China 2 different programs in recent years
Later, Longer, Fewer Policy
One Child Policy

53. What difference would it make when you got married ?

54. One Child Policy 1979 - rewards start once 1 child contract is signed
free medical care
free daycare and schooling
guaranteed job for child
bonuses for parents
extra maternity leave
better housing
bigger old age pension
Penalties
must repay financial benefits
educational, medical benefits, & guaranteed jobs are withdrawn
parents’ wages reduced

55. *How did the government persuade its
citizens to cooperate ?

56. 80,000 Family Planning Workers

57. Education Program

58. Peer pressure

59. Advertising

60. Carry out family planning Implement the basic national policy
Carry out family planning
Implement the basic national policy

61. Clever and pretty healthy and lovely
source:

63. Little emperors
Any social problems ?

64. In recent years China has relaxed the
rules, and in some cases have even
started encouraging two children.
(in some districts in certain situations)
Why ?
In many cases, parents are not taking
advantage of this opportunity.
*Why ?

65. Only countries with over
5 million people

66. 6. Doubling Time Def.? Assumption?? Constant PGR
World’s doubling time is 64 years
As TFR increases, doubling time ___________.
At 1% growth rate it takes 70 years to double
At 2% growth rate takes 35 years to double
U.S. = 70/.9% = 78
What is Eastern Europe’s doubling time?
Japan’s??

68. 7. Dependency ratio Calculated:
(Pop. <15) + (65+) divided by
working-age population (those aged 15-64)
Dependency ratio tells us how strained working pop. is
Ex. Dependency ratio of 0.9 means there are 9 dependants for every 10 working-age people
Keep in mind:
Negative correlation b/t dependency ratio and the ability to take care of dependents

69. Issues with Dep. Ratio Future for the U.S.? Soc. Security?
Better to have too many old, too many young?
Impact of Underemployment? Unemployment?
Child Labor?
1. One should bear in mind that in many LDCs that there are a large number of people who are underemployed who would be counted amongst the working age population. This reflects very low levels of productivity and skewed dependency ratios
2. It should also be remembered that many children in Zambia are economically active either working on the land or in the informal sector of the economy (throws off dependency ratio)

70. Japan’s Dependency Ratio

71. 8. Life Expectancy # years expected to live for babies born this year

72. What do you predict your life expectancy to be?
Almost 2.5 million Americans died last year
650,000 heart disease
550,000 cancer
150,000 stroke
73,000 diabetes
Comparisons:
High: Japan (83, females 86) Singapore (81.98,
females 84)
U.S.: 79, females 81. Low: Botswana (47) Lesotho (48)
World avg. (70)

74. 9. Infant Mortality Rates (very tragic stuff)
# babies who die before their 1st birthday out of 1,000 live births
Not included: abortions or miscarriages
Contrast MDC v. LDC
Correlation w/ wealth?
Comparisons:
High: Sierra Leone (128) C.A.R. (116)
D.R.C (111) Afghanistan (was 157, now 71) Pakistan (74)
Low: Japan (2.2) Sweden (2.76) Singapore (1.8)
U.S.: 5.9
World: 40. MDCs =5, Dev = 44 w/o China = 48, LDCs = 66

75. 10 Highest 2007 est. cia.gov Angola 184.44 Sierra Leone 158.27
Afghanistan
Liberia
Niger
Somalia
Mozambique
Mali
Guinea-Bissau
Chad est.

77. IMR cont. List 5 variables negatively correlated w/ IMR
List 5 variables positively correlated w/ IMR
Practice w/ demographics:

78. Demographic Transition Model: Basics of DTM explained @ http://www
Demographic Transition Model: Basics of DTM One reason this class is so stimulating is our focus on Models

79. Stage One = “High stationary” What is happening with CBR and CDR?

80. Causes of Stage One Lack of clean water  diseases spread
Inefficient sewage  diseases spread
Food shortages  famine
Death rates fluctuate wildly
Wars
Diseases
Drought
Natural disasters

81. Stage Two = “Early Expansion”

82. Stage Two = Decline in death rates: WHY?
Setting: Europe and N. America (1800s)
1. Improvements in water supply, sewage, food handling
2. General personal hygiene (baths are now cool)
3. Increased female literacy
4. 2nd Agric. Revolution = MORE FOOD!
Higher yields by farmers agricultural practices were improved
Mechanization of farming
New system of crop rotation
Leads to increase survival of the children
LDCs (1950s)  medical technology revolution

83. Stage Three = “Late Expanding”
Declines in birth rate WHY?
Drop in IMR
Urban life too expensive/not enough space
Gains for women
Increase in literacy rate
More access to education
Postponing marriage
(Contraceptives were not widely available in the first half 20th)
MDCs moved into Stage 3 during early 20th
If LDCs are in Stage 3, they did so in the last 20 years

84. Why CDR fall b4 CBR???
Easier to convince people to stop dying than to stop “being longitudinal”

85. Stage Four = Low Stationary

86. Stage 4: “Low Stationary” CBR = CDR
Careers for women
postpones marriage/childbirth
Rise of daycare more expensive
Wide access to birth control methods
DINKs MUCH more common lifestyle choice
Travel not conducive to raising a family
More freedom for people to enjoy life – NO KIDS TO MAKE THEM INSANE!!
What begins to happen at the very end of stage four?
Stage 5???
CDR exceeds CBR over many years
Not yet part of the DTM but much discussed and supported
Eastern European countries
Low birth rates
Aging population
Bleak future  pollution, political instability, low economic growth rates, etc.

87. Demographic Transition Model
Can a country skip stages?
Can a country move backwards?
Have all countries gone through this process? Can all countries go though this process?

88. The Demographic Divide: Niger and Netherlands
Population (2013)
16.9 million
16.8 million
Projected Population (2050)
65.8 million
17.9 million
2050 Projected Population as a Multiple of 2013
3.9
1.1
Lifetime Births per Woman
7.6
1.7
Annual Births
845,000
176,000
Annual Deaths
195,000
141,000
% of Population Below Age 15
50%
17%
% of Population Ages 65+ (2013) 3%
16%
% of Population Ages 65+ (projected 2050)
27%
Life Expectancy at Birth (all)
57 years
81 years
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births) 51
3.7
Annual Number of Infant Deaths
43,000
650

90. Population Pyramids and the DTM
You may be asked to determine which stage a country is in based on a pop. pyr.
Pyramid advice – how to analyze a pyramid:
Look at 4 things:
Top of the pyramid
Bottom of the pyramid
Any bulges/indentations in the pyramid?
The symmetry of the pyramid
Always refer to SPECIFIC POINTS on the pyramid!!!
Make sure to look at pyramids at different scales!
Think about what stage of the DTM the pyramid reflects 
Must show countries:
Rwanda
France:
Mexico:
U.S.:
Russia:
China:
India:
UAE: Destination for migrant workers

91. Population Pyramids What patterns do you see?
Rwanda
France
Mexico
U.S.
Russia
China
India
UAE

92. FRQ Strategy
College Board always has at least one definition style FRQ and you have practiced it many times.
Occasionally, they will have you analyze a map/pyramid/chart/data set…. While applying a sexy concept.
For example…
Impossible to predict what they will throw at you  BUT always make sure you refer to specific points on the diagram, chart, etc. while explaining your answer.
Let’s practice…

93. Do you see some trends?

94. Do not write like this:
“The map clearly shows that Japan’s population has steadily grown older and is in stage four of the demographic transition.”
Instead, use your head, write like this instead…
“The map clearly shows that Japan’s population has steadily grown older; for instance, the chart shows that only about 7% of Japan’s population was over 65 in the 1970’s but that percent has more than doubled to over 18% in about This is evidence of being in stage four of the demographic transition.”

95. What does it mean to be overpopulated?

96. What’s unique about the population of: Java, Nigeria, Gaza Strip and Uganda, Ukraine, Japan, China, Ireland, Egypt & Canada?

97. Where Is This??
Taken from 217 miles up

98. II. Population Theories
Malthus’ three assumptions (This was before the Industrial Revolution)
food grows __________
pop grows __________
Britain was a closed sys.
= People will eventually run out of food
Thomas Malthus published his essay in 1798

99. Malthus had five siblings, but he only had three children
I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations. ... Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.
– Malthus 1798

100. Malthus cont. Solutions to the problem?
Moral restraint, but only for the poor!
“Preventative checks” = lower birth rates
marrying later
Abstinence
Birth control (He didn’t anticipate this)
Homosexuality
Positive checks = increase death rates
War
Disease
Natural Disaster
Famine

101. Poor Ben and Poor Esther
“Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind.”
Disagreed with Malthus:
Wealth restrains growth not morality
Food production stays ahead of population growth

102. Poor Esther
The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure
Population density creates more agricultural output  the number of people dictates the type of agriculture practiced
Humans are smart
They will figure out ways of producing more food on the same amount of land rather than starve to death!

103. Neo Malthusian Geeks = is Earth a closed system?
There is a limit on population; it’s just higher than Malthus estimated
Gap b/t resources and population in some countries is wider than Malthus assumed
LDCs are getting relatively poorer and less access to resources
Population growth is depleting ALL resources NOT just food production
Wars and violence will occur b/t peoples competing for resources
Earth won’t sustain pollution or huge population numbers

104. III. Population concentrations
>Along coastlines
>Northern hemisphere
>Eurasia
<Less concentrated where?

105. Climates’ “carrying capacity”
The amount of life a particular place can sustain
H. Subtropical (USA, China, Japan, Australia)
H. continental (USA, China, Japan, Europe)
Mediterranean (USA, Europe)
Wet and Dry trop (India)
Lowest carrying capacities:
Arid
Polar/Sub-Polar

106. IV. Population Movements
Push and Pull factors of migration
Push =
Pull =
What is a refugee? IDP?
International vs. internal (intranational)
Difficult to define:
What is a “well-founded fear of reprisal?”
Migration because of fear or economic opportunity?
International Migration: (7:38)

107. Our text says there are 3 types of Push & Pull factors
Political Economic Environmental
Net migration
Immigrants – emigrants (# out of 1000)
Net in-migration
Net out-migration
Ravenstein’s 12 laws of migration

108. Major movements in the 20th
East Asia, India, and Latin America (Mexico) TO the U.S. late 20th.
(South/East. Europeans  U.S. early 20th)
2. Russians TO other Warsaw Pact countries during Cold War
3. Kosovars TO surrounding countries during ethnic cleansing of Serbia
4. White South Africans TO United States and Western Europe in post-apartheid S. Africa
5. Americans from Rustbelt TO Sunbelt
6. Rwandans from Rwanda TO surrounding countries

109. 7. Cuban refugees during Castro’s coup
15 Cubans Who Got to Fla. Bridge Sent Home
MIAMI
Fifteen Cubans who fled their homeland and landed on an abandoned bridge piling in the Florida Keys were returned to their homeland Monday after U.S. officials concluded that the structure did not constitute dry land.
Under the U.S. government's "wet-foot, dry-foot" policy, Cubans who reach dry land in the United States are usually allowed to remain in this country, while those caught at sea are sent back.

110. More Migrations… 8. Vietnam's "boat people“ http://www.boatpeople.org/
Read “A TRUE STORY” and “Boat People”
9. Jews from homes in U.S.S.R. to Israel and the U.S. in the 1990s
10. Muslims in India to Pakistan and Bangladesh after the partition of India
11. Refugees from Sudan pouring into Ethiopia, Chad, and Kenya
12. Eastern Europeans and Muslims from their homes TO Western Europe
13. Workers in western China migrating TO Eastern China and major Pacific Rim cities
14. African Americans from South to North after Civil War
15. Ugandans from Uganda to neighboring African countries

111. 15. Uganda – Idi Amin 12 million killed by him
Estimates of between 300,000 –
12 million killed by him

112. Remade in America NY Times interactive on Global Migration:
What patterns do you see? What are the causes, effects?
Please complete the associated activity 

113. V. The Gravity Model
Used to predict the interaction between any two hamlet/village/town/city/megalopolis
(Population city A)(Population city B)
Distance squared
Why is the distance in the denominator squared?

115. How is the coefficient found?
It is defined as the sum of the products of the standard scores of the two measures divided by the degrees of freedom:
Note that this formula is very simple

116. Just know it is really GEO!
It’s magic!
It is not necessary for you to know how these correlation coefficients are created!
Just know it is really GEO!

124. 1st Swine Flu Victim???

125. Review
FRQ Advice: When analyzing charts, make specific references about specific data on the chart/graph…
Do not make generalizations without making specific references to data on the chart.

126. For example, say “the cohort of females who are 0-4 years old are #
For example, say “the cohort of females who are 0-4 years old are #? more than in cohort 5-9 which indicates that the population is growing each year.

127. What % of men are 0-4 compared with women? 85 plus?

128. In life and academia:
When a concept’s definition is really short and concise it is NOT ____________
CONVERSELY
When a concept’s definition is really long and complex it is ____________

129. What would a strong negative relationship look like?
Draw one on your piece of paper with fifteen plots

130. What is the difference between population growth and population change?

131. Population Change can be more than just total # of people
Gender
Religion
Ethnicity

132. Based upon this map, what areas are under-populated?

133. In some areas of Europe there are comparatively dense populations found in mountainous, rugged country because of proximity to coal fields.