1. 1 Looking at the Future to Make Better Decisions in the Present Nancy Taylor, Senior Policy Officer, KnowledgeWorks Foundation Michigan State University June 18, 2007 2006-2016 Map of Future Forces Affecting Education

2. 2 Aggregation of experts’ opinions and field research Forecast of how future forces will affect public education Not a prediction or certain statement of what will happen – think of a weather map. It is context. Useful tool to provoke new kinds of strategic conversations What is the Map?

3. 2006-2016 Map of Future Forces Affecting Education

4. 4 The Map Is a Grid 6 drivers of change or major trends (vertical column on left side) 5 critical impact areas (horizontal axis) 5 hotspots or key trends Content of map: trends, dilemmas, and hotspots

5. 5 Drivers of Change Grassroots economics Smart networking Strong opinions, strongly held Sick herd Urban wilderness The end of cyberspace

6. 6 Grassroots Economics: From Economies of Scales  Economies of Groups

7. 7 Smart Networking: From Informed Networking to Engaged Networkers Whatever your interest. Wherever you are.

8. 8 Strong Opinions, Strongly Held From Global Media Culture  Splintered Fundamentalism

9. 9 Sick Herd: Increasing Signs of Distress

10. 10 Urban Wilderness: From predominantly rural to predominantly urban

11. 11 The End of Cyberspace: Next Wave Technology The Forerunner 201

12. 12 Four Big Map Lessons for Education 1.Education starts to exist for you. From institution  Marketplace commodity and service. 2.Learning will become more of an activity, less of a transfer of knowledge and facts. 3.Success will increasingly rely on facilitating constant learning and sorting through networks and information. 4.Public schools role as a direct socializing force and teacher of skills will lessen, possibly with more of a pull to serve as a center of community and services.

13. 13 Deep personalization An explosion of learning agents Democratization of learning An Expanding Learning Economy

14. 14 An Explosion of Learning Agents

15. 15 Democratization of Learning

16. 16 www.kwfdn.org/map/

17. 17 Implications  What pressing challenges does public education face in your state or communities, related to these trends?  Is your state or community prepared to deal with these trends? Is our education system? How can it get there?

18. 18 Translating Map Into Action…. Sustainability of rural environments and infrastructures, needs? Deep personalization (but how vs. testing, vs. isolated communities) Marketplace for education product – career projections over the decade? Implications for local and university level, real “diversity?,” mobility effects on deep personalization, how will roles in education change given economic instability? Concern for have and have-not gap as reliance on technology increases Standardized testing vs. personalized, integrated curriculum New “Breaking the Mold” and global approach, pushing community to develop knowledge and skills with public education have a role as part of this with community (education functioning narrowly now). With personalization across education, economics, etc. but still gap – what will hold us together? If always “me”/personalized then what about the larger issues that impact us all? Generational differences and technology a concern

19. 19 Translating Map into Action (continued)…. More a forecast than model -- so what does this mean? Shift towards market, consumer….but who is provider? Benefits of personalization (relevance) – but role of relationships? Future is going to be chaotic, demand a lot of choices and educators must provide choices (vs. traditional curriculum, schools, etc.). But we are going there – home and virtual learning, charters, Early College HS, and others we cannot imagine with future demand Hard times ahead – change and risk ahead and how will it play out (in governance policies and i.e., role of unions) In US – central city is in decline (vs. rest of world) Forecast seems quite real. How will forces in MI help or hinder? Are we Rome? VUCA – hasn’t it always been there? (economic stratification, etc. and potential cycle) Greatest challenges – “family” and technology We are not ready for these challenges I want to live in the Map (at the end of the rainbow) Hard to have versatility, personalized learning plans today