1. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited 07-1134 Potential New Ideas from Complexity Science Joseph K. DeRosa

2. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 2 Hypotheses n There are classes of problems for which complex systems represent the best solution n Known elements of complexity science apply to the solution of such problems n Enterprise systems engineering methods/tools can be constructed from complexity science

3. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 3 Problems for Which Complexity Represents the Best Solution n Problems for which an ever-changing environment reacts to reward or punish your every action –Counter-insurgency warfare, Global business operations n Problems in which local behavior can only be evaluated based on global results –Joint and coalition warfare or any similar network centric operations, Food networks (generalized predator-prey and ecologies), Team Sports n Socio-cultural systems in which people or systems acting in their own behalf take actions that cannot be precisely predicted –Economies, Cities, Organizations n Problems for which an enumeration of the candidate solutions grows at least exponentially with the number of nodes in the network and there is no known analytic method to determine the best candidate –Software assurance, Traveling Salespersons problem

4. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 4 From Complexity Science n There is a middle region between unordered chaos and deterministic systems where complexity abounds n In this region, systems and endeavors exhibit two properties –Self-organization (spontaneously ordered processes) –Selection (based on fitness)

5. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 5 From Biology and Evolution Command and Control.........................  Metabolic processes People immersed in new cultural norms, Executing Collective Processes Fueled by Modern Technology...........................  Fitness Landscape Metabolic Processes Fitness Landscapes Co-evolve Command Control People Processes Technology

6. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 6 Known Elements of Complexity that Apply n Autonomous agents n Self-Organization n Adaptation and Evolution n Phase changes n Emergence

7. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 7 Potential Systems Engineering Methods and Tools n Modeling tool Box –Agent based, Systems Dynamics, Computational n Strategy Tool Box (Applied Game theory tools) –Resource allocation –Enterprise learning –Evolution of cooperation n Organizational and Management Toolbox –Team formation –Self-organization –Integration vs Innovation trade space