1. Open Classroom Policy Advice to the Governor Week 1 What’s UP (and Down) in the Massachusetts Economy Barry Bluestone September 8, 2010

2. The U.S. Economy

9. A bit of recovery

10. The Massachusetts Economy

11. 2000-2009: A Disappointing Decade: No Growth in Total Employment. Both decades showed weakness at the beginning, but the 1990s showed strong growth after that. 1990s 2000s

12. A very different decade …

14. Massachusetts: 2001-2009 Massachusetts had 4th worst employment trend of the 50 states o Only Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois fared worse o Massachusetts lost 4.7% of its jobs between 2001:I and 2009:IV o It wasn’t a good decade for most states with 28 losing jobs over the decade

15. A Closer Look at Massachusetts Employment Trends

16. Feb 2001 Aug 2003 Dec 2007 Dec 2009 Since 1999, Massachusetts employment has grown slower than the U.S.

17. Dec 2007 The same is true since August 2003 after the 2000-2001 Recession

18. BUT since the current recession began in December 2007, total employment has declined by 5.9% nationwide; by only 4.2 % in Massachusetts Mass U.S.

22. February 2001: 3,384.3 December 2003: 3,178.4 -205,900 March 2008: 3,304.3 +125,900 January 2010: 3137.6 -166,700 +60,200 July 2010

27. 2008-2010

33. High Technology Manufacturers Aerospace Computers, office machinery Electronics-communications Pharmaceuticals

34. Medium-High Technology Manufacturers Scientific instruments Motor vehicles & parts Electrical machinery Chemicals Other transport equipment Non-electrical machinery

35. Medium-Low Technology Manufacturers Rubber and plastic products Shipbuilding Non-ferrous metals Non-metallic mineral products Fabricated metal products Petroleum refining Ferrous metals production

36. Low-Technology Manufacturers Paper printing Textiles Apparel Food, beverages, and tobacco Wood and furniture

38. Share of Massachusetts Payroll (2006)

39. Massachusetts Manufacturing: An Aging Workforce Despite overall loss in jobs between 2000 and 2006, the number of Manufacturing workers over age 45 has increased

40. Massachusetts Manufacturing: An Aging Workforce Age 45+ 2006: 49.6% 2000: 40.5%

41. Replacing the Workforce Given the likely retirement of more than 50,000 manufacturing workers over the next decade and given normal turnover of younger and prime age workers in this sector, it is likely that 100,000 or more jobs will need to be filled in this sector. A large number of these will be for production workers.

43. 14.8% INCREASE (2007-2020)

44. 99% of the net increase in households between 2007-2020 will be headed by someone 55 years old or older 62% over Age 65

48. New Hampshire +20.4% Vermont +17.0% Maine +13.2% Rhode Island +11.3% Massachusetts + 9.1% Connecticut + 8.0%

51. Net Increase in Households: 222,700 Under 55: -77,700 55+: +300,371