1. The Recession: Accelerating the new economy Anthony Carnevale September 8, 2011

2. The worst of the recession is over. Non-farm payroll employment has slowly picked up with positive gains since October 2010.

3. The recession was bad, but, like other recessions, growth has resumed.

4. Employment growth is not keeping up with GDP growth, but we project that it will catch up by 2018.

5. The year 2010 added 1.3 million private sector jobs to the economy, the strongest private sector job growth since 2006

6. Unemployment rates look very different based with postsecondary credentials.

7. Demand for postsecondary education has increased, and will continue to increase during and after the recovery. Source: Authors’ analysis of March CPS data, various years; Center on Education and the Workforce forecast of educational demand to 2018

8. Meanwhile, the wage premium paid to college graduates has continued to rise. This is an indication of a shortage.

9. Postsecondary-educated workers now earn almost 80% of the nation’s wages.

10. The nation’s states vary in the share of wages earned by postsecondary-educated workers. 84-90% 78-83% 72-77% 66-71% 60-65%

11. The painful process of structural change is altering the pattern of employment by industry– as it has in past recessions. The structural change is favoring workers with more education.

12. Several key industries will lose most of their postsecondary-educated workers with the Baby Boom.

13. 1981 Recession 2.8 million net jobs were lost between July 1981 and November 1982. By October of 1983 the economy restored those 2.8 million jobs lost from the recession, but manufacturing never recovered Net Job Losers Net Job Gainers

14. 1990 Recession 1.2 million net jobs were lost between July 1990 and March 1991. By January 1993, the economy restored 1.2 million jobs lost from the recession but the distribution by industry favored services Job Losers Job Gainers

15. 2001 Recession 1.6 million jobs were lost between March and November of the 2001 recession. By January 1993, the economy restored 1.6 million jobs lost from the recession but the distribution by industry favored services Job Losers Job Gainers

16. The Great Recession 7.3 million jobs were lost since this recession began in December '07 and ended in June '09. Professional and Business Services and Education and Health have shown net gains overall.

17. These patterns of structural change will continue through 2018 and beyond. Job LosersJob Gainers

18. Even in declining industries there will be job openings. Job Losers