1. AN END-TO-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING SYSTEM IN AUSTRALIA: OVERVIEW AND TRAINING ISSUES. Tony Bannister and Roger Deslandes Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne, Australia

2.  Background  System Overview  Training issues  Conclusion

3. Background  July 2003 the Australian Government committed AUS$62.2 million dollars over a five year period to upgrade the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s weather service provision.  The bulk of this funding is committed to acquiring and implementing radar hardware.  Also directed at the development and operational implementation of radar data display software tools, algorithm-based warning decision tools and a graphically based thunderstorm warning production system.

4. Background

6.  A National Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance System (NTFGS), used to display Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data, was also deployed for operational use around Australia in the latter part of 2003.  BMRC developed software used to display radar data (3D-Rapic) developing the facility to show algorithm- based overlays  BMRC developed warning production tool (Thunderstorm Interactive Forecasting System; TIFS) had been tested successfully in Sydney.  These constitute a tool set that can be used end-to-end in the process of diagnosing potential severe weather environments, assessing storm severity on radar and the issuing of warnings.

7. Background  Before this injection of resources, the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre was developing a tool set that can be used end-to-end in the process of diagnosing potential severe weather environments, assessing storm severity on radar and the issuing of warnings  The Australian Government funding provided resources and a focus to make the system operational

8. System Overview  Outlook period to 48 hours National Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance System (NTFGS).  Nowcasting Visualization - 3D-Rapic radar-based algorithms TITAN and WDSS  Forecast Production Thunderstorm Interactive Forecasting System (TIFS)

9. System Overview  Outlook period to 48 hours - National Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance System.  displays those output fields from the 0.125º Australian operational NWP model (Meso-LAPS) that are relevant in diagnosing (severe) thunderstorm potential.  Algorithms used to determine threat areas are ingredient based  Forecasters view the data in a way that reinforces the (severe) thunderstorm forecast process

11. Supercell (warm-season)  Conditions for surface- based convection met and:  Favourable:   Lifted Index (500 hPa)  -4.0   Deep Shear (surface to 2.5-4km)  30 knots  Very favourable:   Lifted Index (500 hPa)  -5.0   Deep Shear (surface to 2.5-4km)  35 knots.

14. Nowcasting Visualization - 3D- Rapic

15. Nowcasting, radar-based algorithms  Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting System - TITAN (from NCAR) radar-based application that identifies and tracks storm cells and provides short-term forecasts of their movement and size  Warning Decision Support System - WDSS (from NSSL) radar-based severe weather detection and prediction algorithms

16. TITANWDSS

18. Forecast Production - (TIFS)

19.  Forecaster graphically selects and edits guidance to create a warning  TIFS then saves these forecast decisions and automatically generates a range of graphical and text warning products, guaranteeing consistency  Warning preparation time has been significantly reduced while the range of warning products has been increased.

20. Training issues  Based on severe thunderstorm and radar competencies.  Train-the-trainer model used.  Regional trainers developed the training case studies  web-based delivery of the training material  Case studies utilise the actual forecast systems  After the training forecasters are cross- checked against core competencies to ensure that they are familiar with systems and procedures.

21. Training issues  Based on severe thunderstorm and radar competencies.  Train-the-trainer model used.  Regional trainers stronger understanding of local office culture and local forecast procedures available to office staff after the official training has concluded.

22. Training issues  Regional trainers themselves developed the training case studies ensured a strong sense of ownership and understanding of the training material.  The web-based delivery of the training material forecasters can easily access the resources  Case studies utilise the actual forecast systems  After the training forecasters are cross-checked against core competencies to ensure that they are familiar with systems and procedures.

23. Training issues

24. Conclusion  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is well- positioned to improve the scope and effectiveness of its Severe Thunderstorm Warning service over the next few years.