1. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 1 What urban air quality managers want to know from modelers and what they want them to deliver for the NEC review Martin Lutz Senate Department for Urban Development, Berlin Directorate IX, Environment Policy  brief recap: what AQ legislation wants AQ managers to do?  emerging requirements for modelling  EU context: revision of NEC & CAFE Directive  problems and some conclusions

2. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 2 requirements for AQ management  as set out in EU Framework Directive exceedances of Alert thresholds exceedances of limit values short-term action plan draw up a short-term action plan (smog alarm, temporarily suspending polluting activities, e.g. traffic ban) action plan with measures to be taken in the short-term draw up an action plan with measures to be taken in the short-term action plans if limit values are (likely to be) still exceeded & long-term) plan&program draw up a (long-term) plan&program

3. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 3 AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps)  scope for application of models Requisite issues to be dealt within a Plan& Program…. Is there a problem with air pollution? Is there a problem with air pollution?  assessment  assessment of the air pollution against the AQ limit values  Area of non-compliance, trends Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much? Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much?  source  source analysis  scales: local, urban, regional, continental  source apportionment  source sectors: transport, industry, domestic, … Are current measures sufficient Are current measures sufficient for compliance ?  Estimate impact of current measures and legislation  includes effects of national and EU-wide measures If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met? If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met?  Estimate effect of additional measures  Estimate effect of additional measures planned long-term measures Further possible long-term measures & their benefits

4. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 4 450 km road sections in non- attainment450 km road sections in non- attainment 190.000 affected residents190.000 affected residents 24h limit value annual limit value current situation (base year 2002)  modelled PM10 in street canyons

5. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 5 by banning road traffic in selected areas we were achieving a significant reduction of PM10 pollution AQ assessment and resulting action  the conventional wisdom  we need a stronger commitment for modelling in the new AQ Directive

6. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 6 AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps)  Structural template required by EU law Requisite issues to be dealt within a Plan& Program…. Is there a problem with air pollution? Is there a problem with air pollution?  assessment  assessment of the air pollution against the AQ limit values  Area of non-compliance, trends Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much? Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much?  source  source analysis  scales: local, urban, regional, continental  source apportionment  source sectors: transport, industry, domestic, … Are current measures sufficient Are current measures sufficient for compliance ?  Estimate impact of current measures and legislation  includes effects of national and EU-wide measures If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met? If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met?  Estimate effect of additional measures  Estimate effect of additional measures planned long-term measures Further possible long-term measures & their benefits

7. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 7 requirements for modelling  with respect to time scales/resolution modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !! modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !! P&Ps usually have a long-term scope (5-10 years) P&Ps usually have a long-term scope (5-10 years) short-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) loose relevance short-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) loose relevance  limited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peaks  large-scale PM background and transport  non-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteo  health effects dominated by long-term exposure measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value compliance measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value compliance  mostly durable measures to be implemented fairly quickly (1 year) new revised AQ Directive: no short-term action plans for attainment of limit values new revised AQ Directive: no short-term action plans for attainment of limit values  no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes !  simulation of frequency distribution is sufficient  but need to cover several years so as to compensate meteo fluctuations

8. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 8 long-term) P&P, including measures taken asap after the compliance date draw up a (long-term) P&P, including measures taken asap after the compliance date requirements for AQ management  as set out in EU Framework Directive exceedances of Alert thresholds exceedances of limit values short-term action plan draw up a short-term action plan (smog alarm, temporarily suspending polluting activities, e.g. traffic ban)

9. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 9 requirements for modelling  with respect to time scales/resolution modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !! modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !! P&Ps usually have a long-term scope (5-10 years) P&Ps usually have a long-term scope (5-10 years) short-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) loose relevance short-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) loose relevance  limited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peaks  large-scale PM background and transport  non-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteo  health effects dominated by long-term exposure measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value compliance measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value compliance  mostly durable measures to be implemented fairly quickly (1 year) new revised AQ Directive: no short-term action plans for attainment of limit values new revised AQ Directive: no short-term action plans for attainment of limit values  no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes !  simulation of frequency distribution is sufficient  but need to cover several years so as to compensate meteo fluctuations

10. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 10 requirements for modelling  with respect to spatial scales/resolution PM10 [µg/m³] urban background regional background hemispheric/natural background Urban areascountryside 10 15 20 30 25 35 40 Traffic, local sources monitoring sites total urban contribution relevant for AQ LV compliance urban increment hot spot increment

11. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 11 requirements for modelling  with respect to spatial scales/resolution Conclusions Conclusions relevant for modelling…. hot spot increment hot spot increment needs micro-scale modelling (e.g. street canyon)  notmuchrelevanceNEC  not much relevance within the NEC review  quiterelevantLV  quite relevant with respect to AQ LV compliance Commission/Council/EP sufficient  for Commission/Council/EP : are vehicle emission standards sufficient to curb hot spot increment ? local  for local AQ management: impact of traffic management/reduction, vehicle fleet renewal urban increment needs resolution down to 1x1 km 2 urban increment needs resolution down to 1x1 km 2  quite relevant for NEC review & AQ LV compliance regional background needs resolution ~ 10x10 km regional background needs resolution ~ 10x10 km  absolutely essential for NEC review  important for AQ LV compliance  dominates also urban exposure  gains importance with transition to PM2.5  we need to resolve these 3 scales properly  we need (sort of) multi-scale modelling for AQ management AND for NEC review

12. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 12 change in spatial distribution  PM10 vs PM2.5 *based on measurements **based on modelling

13. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 13 requirements for modelling  with respect to spatial scales/resolution Conclusions Conclusions relevant for modelling…. hot spot increment hot spot increment needs micro-scale modelling (e.g. street canyon)  notmuchrelevanceNEC  not much relevance within the NEC review  quiterelevantLV  quite relevant with respect to AQ LV compliance Commission sufficient  for Commission : are vehicle emission standards sufficient to curb hot spot increment ? local  for local AQ management: impact of traffic management/reduction, vehicle fleet renewal urban increment needs resolution down to 1x1 km 2 urban increment needs resolution down to 1x1 km 2  quite relevant for NEC review & AQ LV compliance regional background needs resolution ~ 10x10 km regional background needs resolution ~ 10x10 km  absolutely essential for NEC review  important for AQ LV compliance  dominates also urban exposure  gains importance with transition to PM2.5  we need to resolve these 3 scales properly  we need (sort of) multi-scale modelling for AQ management AND for NEC review

14. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 14 1x1 km 2 ~30x30 km 2 4x4 km 2 Air pollution control planning in Berlin  multi-scale model calculations street canyon

15. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 15 Long-term trend of PM10 and EC in & around Berlin  differentiated for regional & urban scale regional background consists of city periphery data in upwind position

16. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 16 impact of various control scenarios for 2010  differentiated for regional & urban scale Expected decrease of PM10 in Berlin -10% -8% -10%-11% -15% -4% -13% -24% -30% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2002CLE 2010LEZ 2010LEZ StEP 2010 "MFR" annual average PM10 [µg/m³] local increment urban increment regional BG -9% -11% -13% -14%

17. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 17 requirements for modelling  with respect to (cost-)effectiveness where is it most (cost-)effective to take action ??? answer is essential both for NEC review … answer is essential both for NEC review …  find the right balance between measures to curb …  the regional background  the urban increment  aim to achieve the maximum benefit (% exposure reduction)  aim to assist compliance with AQ LV …and for AQ LV attainment  local AQ management to find balance between action  to reduce the hot spot increment  to lower the urban (background) increment Commission  for Commission to identify need to tighten EU regulation on emissions (vehicle standards, LCP, IPPC)  need quantitative estimates of control potential of urban measures and their costs  including economic measures  need to feed it somehow into IAM

18. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 18 conclusion  what do AQ managers want modelers to deliver? in general in general  models that resolve the spatial scales properly  models which resolve the frequency distribution properly  models which are fast enough for multi-annual runs  models which assist in source analysis (multi-components) in relation to the NEC review in relation to the NEC review  models which take the urban increment into account  city delta  an approach to enshrine the urban contribution into IAM  (integrated assessment) models which assist in striking a fair balance between local action and EU measures in relation to forecast AQ LV compliance in relation to forecast AQ LV compliance  multi-scale model framework which allows a compliance estimate  for the Commission to review the PMxx LVs within CAFÉ II  CAFÉ I has largely failed to estimate the scope for compliance  for local AQ managers to check whether/by when their P&Ps achieve compliance of LVs  many P&Ps failed to provide any estimate of compliance

19. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 19 6 th Environment Action Program Controlling emissions levels of air qualityprotect againsthealth effects..... to achieve levels of air quality that protect all people effectively against recognised health effects from air pollution and take into account the protection of the environment National Emission Ceilings EU-legislation on emission control of certain type of installations Stationary sources Improving Air Quality AQ Framework Directive PM NO2 SO2, PM, NO2, lead AQ standards basic assessment criteria action plans, reporting Benzene, CO Ozone Heavy metals PAH trigger for further measures Air pollution control in the EU EU-Standards for vehicle emission and fuel quality ( EURO III - V) Mobile sources local Complementary measures on a local level achieve Air Quality standards Economic measures Road pricing Fiscal incentives for BAT Energy taxes Scrappage schemes Restricted access Voluntary agreements with industry, e.g. with ACEA Acidification, Eutrophication

20. Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 20 Berlin‘s „Luftreinhalteplan“ on the web: http://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de /umwelt/luftqualitaet/de/luftreinhalteplan/ Thank you !