1. Draft conclusions and key recommendations of the CAFE Position Paper on PM Martin Meadows and Bernd Seifert CAFE Workshop, 20 & 21 October 2003 Web link: www.itm.su.sewww.itm.su.se Click on ”newsboard”

2. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 2 Terms of reference With the aim of supporting the European Commission’s review of the First Daughter Directive (DD) 1999/30/EC the group should: assess the air quality situation with regard to the PM limit values set in the DD; review the content of the Position Paper on PM published in 1997 with regard to information obtained since; collect together information on predictive studies on the attainability of the limit values, considering at the same time contributions from long-range transport and local sources.

3. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 3 Terms of reference With the aim of supporting the production of the CAFE thematic strategy the group should: consider the WHO work on health effects of PM with the aim of giving recommendations for targets for integrated assessment; review the results of the integrated assessment modelling work on PM.

4. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 4 WHO conclusions “There is strong evidence to conclude that fine particles (PM 2.5 ) are more hazardous than larger ones (coarse particles) in terms of mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory endpoints in panel studies. This does not imply that the coarse fraction of PM 10 is innocuous”

5. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 5 WHO conclusions Epidemiological studies on large populations have been unable to identify a threshold concentration below which ambient PM has no effect on health.

6. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 6 Information availability Greatly improved information since the first Position Paper in 1997 on PM 10 characteristics, ambient concentrations, historic trends and projections Comparatively little information on PM 2.5

7. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 7 Trends Primary PM 10 emissions reduced by 18% across Europe between 1990 and 2000 Precursor emissions also decreased significantly Annual average PM 10 concentrations decreased by 15 to 20% on average since 1998. Not uniform.

8. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 8 Attainability Less stringent Stage 1 annual average limit value likely to be attained in 2005 in most MS with some exceptions at urban background and hotspots With current policies, PM levels at many locations across the EU likely to exceed the Stage 1 24h limit value in 2005

9. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 9 Attainability Even with ambitious measures, indicative limit values seem unattainable in the most polluted locations by 2010 Attainability at all locations largely outside control of MS because of transboundary nature of PM 10 pollution. Europe-wide action needed. Attainability difficulties at hotspots should not not prevent MS implementing measures to reduce possible non-compliance

10. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 10 PM metric Recommends the use of PM 2.5 rather than PM 10 as the principal metric for assessing exposure to PM. Reclassify indicative Stage 2 PM 10 limit values as non-mandatory target values with the aim to help control the coarse fraction, PM 2.5-10. Continue monitoring PM 10 at a lower intensity

11. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 11 Targets Recommends that the Commission consider the use of alternative approaches, such as gap closure or targets, to supplement the use of limit values.

12. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 12 Annual average limit value Recommends a range of values (12 to 20 µg/m³ - derived from current Stage 1 LV) for the integrated assessment procedure to identify an appropriate PM 2.5 annual average limit value. Position Paper provides rationale.

13. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 13 24-h average limit Recommends a value for PM 2.5 around 35 µg/m³ (not to be exceeded more than 10% of the days of the year) as a starting point for consideration.

14. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 14 Other recommendations 34 other recommendations from individual chapters Research Measurement Important to address contradiction between reference method and daily reporting requirements Characterisation Modelling Abatement strategies Attainability Strategy for setting targets

15. CAFE Workshop on PM: preliminary outcomes and conclusions Dick van den Hout, TNO

16. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 16 General introduction session Richmond – Parallel developments in USA; similarities and differences: PM 10 standard resulted in disproportionate effort to mitigate coarse fraction PM 2.5 proposals USA and WG PM are fairly similar PM 10 proposals are more different: PM 10-2.5  PM 10 Higher  lower range of value Will explore further cost benefit for mitigating fine or coarse fractions, projections, spatial issues.

17. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 17 Themes (1) Uncertainty Uncertainties tend to be larger for PM 2.5 than for PM 10 (levels, trends, projections and attainability) Natural sources not well quantified Inconsistencies in modelling, source apportionnement Health effects

18. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 18 Themes (cont’d) Shortcomings in European-wide assessment of PM levels Measuring methods: (non-)equivalence, Correction Factors Station coverage/representativeness/station type mix Modelling shortcomings

19. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 19 Themes (cont’d) Attainability: broad confirmation of the analysis in the Position Paper: - there will be large attainment problems - with existing LVs - more so with the new proposals

20. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 20 Themes (cont’d) How to reduce? (1) Balance between sectors to be targetted: Aim at sectors that have not yet done much? Aim at sectors that are most relevant for health risks? Should one aim to reduce also hot spot and/or short term exposure? This awaits the 2nd round of WHO answers. Local measures are often not sufficient; large background; (inter)national measures needed. Information on measures (what is possible/impossible) in Member States is badly needed.

21. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 21 Themes (cont’d) How to reduce? (2) Time lag between the setting of emission standards for cars and the actual emission reduction of the existing fleet in considerable; fuel composition measures enter more rapidly in effect. Retrofitting? Industry prefers targets for emissions or air quality instead of prescriptions for how to achieve this. Potential synergies with Climate Change for “warming” PM components (Black Carbon). Opposing effects as well (e.g. sulphate, nitrate).

22. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 22 Themes (cont’d) Health issues Importance of fine versus coarse fraction Should we care more about Black Smoke? Traffic related hot spot exposure is of concern There may be an effect threshold for PM 2.5. take into account in uncertainty analysis; take into account in Risk Assessment. Not only elderly people, also children are being affected.

23. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 23 Examples from cities (1) Attainability problem of especially - 2005 daily Limit Value - 2010 both daily and annual indicative Limit Value Main focus on traffic sources, but not always. Other major sources: - long range transport - wood burning Contribution of industry is limited in most cases.

24. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 24 Examples from cities (cont’d) Specific local conditions may aggrevate the PM situation: - Meteorological & geographical conditions (mountains near Milan) - African dust outbreaks (Madrid) - Wood burning + use studded tyres/road surface wear (Stockholm) - High background (Berlin)

25. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 25 Examples from cities (cont’d) Traffic receives most attention for local action, due to both exhaust and non-exhaust PM. Analyses indicate limited impact of reducing PM 10 by local measures: - better regulate exhaust emissions at EU level - impact of traffic flow reduction is limited, unless significant traffic reduction - cleaning roads has no impact - reduction use studded tyres effective to decrease PM 10 concentration.

26. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 26 Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (1) Why not stick to PM 10 in view of uncertainties, and correlations with PM 2.5 ? Include Black Smoke in some way? EC and OC fraction of PM will increase over time Do we need a daily LV in addition to an annual LV?

27. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 27 Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (2) Proposed values of AQ thresholds are preliminary and starting values for Integrated Assessment. Do metrics proposed drive the correct policies? Proposal to supplement LVs with additional approach. E.g. change focus of enforcement; then create target values and then develop gap closure. WHO associates the most serious health effects with the fine fraction.

28. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 28 Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (3) Take the USA example and regulate PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-10 separately. Coarse fraction can be addresses by local action. Measurements of PM 2.5 are less accurate than of PM 10.

29. PM WG at EIONET 2003 WS 29 Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (4) For WG members to think about in the next weeks:  PM 2.5-10 instead of PM 10 ?  Include “Black Smoke” in some way?