2. The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use Ideas for a Roadmap for Biomass Technologies Staur Gjestegård, Stange, Norge August 2004

3. On the way to our roadmap Today’s realities Tomorrow’s needs Our role

6. . Courtesy of Pamela Terry. World Population Growth National Geographic Scenarios 1750-2150 Source: National Geographic Society, Millennium in Maps, August 1998. 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 Projections vary due to assumptions on birth rates 27 25 World population (billions) 20 15 10 5 0

7. World Population Growth 1750-2100 Source: Population Reference Bureau 10 8 6 4 2 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Billions Developing Countries Industrial Countries

8. U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq 11% Kuwait 10% Iran 9% UAE 8% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Libya 3% Mexico 3% China 3% Nigeria 2% U.S. 2% U.S.26% Japan 7% China 6% Germany 4% Canada 4% Russia 3% Brazil 3% S. Korea 3% France 3% India 3% Mexico 3% Italy 2% Have Oil Use Oil The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. Updated March 2003. Source: International Energy Annual 2001 (EIA), Tables 11.4 and 11.10.

9. Changes in Atmospheric Concentration CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 0 – A Thousand Year History Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) Atmospheric concentration N 2 O (pbb) 310 290 270 250 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Atmospheric concentration CO 2 (ppm) 360 340 320 300 280 260 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Atmospheric concentration CH 4 (ppb) 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

10. The nature of value, and the value of nature

11. Vision - macro

13. Vision - nano

14. Implications of the Genomic Revolution The Molecular Economy Carbohydrate Lipid Protein Biopolymers

15. Harvesting for the carbohydrate economy

16. Starting points for our roadmap Our meeting last year and again today –The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment

17. Initiative for Renewable Energy and the Environment MISSION: To promote statewide economic development, sustainable, healthy, and diverse ecosystems, and national energy security through development of bio-based and other renewable resources and processes. www.iree.umn.edu

18. Opportunities Use renewable resources for CO 2 -neutral production of energy and materials. Move closer to real-time use of photosynthesis.

19. Goals and objectives Leadership in research and demonstration. Create jobs. Promote the hydrogen economy. Use renewables to replace fossil fuels for –energy –chemicals –materials Foster communication and collaboration.

20. IREE core values Leveraging resources Partnerships Impact

21. University of Minnesota Initiative for Renewable Energy and the Environment Executive Committee Working Group Director/Assoc. Director Cluster Leader Council External Adv. Board Policy, Economics, and Ecosystems Conservation and Efficient Energy Systems Bioenergy and Bioproducts Hydrogen

22. Starting points for our roadmap Our meeting last year and again today –The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United States, December 2002 –www.nrel.gov

23. Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the US: Vision Biopower –Double each decade through 2030 Biobased Transportation Fuels –0.5% (now); 4% (2010); 10% (2020); 20% (2030) Biobased Products –5% (now); 12% (2010); 18% (2020); 25% (2030)

24. Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Feedstock production –Biotechnology, genetics and plant physiology –Agronomic practices –Feedstock handling

25. Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Processing and conversion –Biorefinery concept –Thermochemical conversion –Bioconversion –Enabling technologies

26. Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Product uses and distribution –Biorefinery development and demonstration projects

27. Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Public policy measures –Incentives –Education –Resource supply –Environmental measures –Standards and codes –Financial assistance

28. Starting points for our roadmap Our meeting last year and again today –The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment (www.iree.umn.edu) Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United States, December 2002 ( www.nrel.gov) www.nrel.gov Multifunctional Agriculture - the case of Norway Norwegian Forests - Policy and Resources

29. Outcomes for our partnership By tomorrow –Vision –Roadmap –Mechanisms for success By next year Five years from now