1. MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 WP 07 MONITORING & FORECASTING CENTRE for BALTIC SEA MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013

2. Partnership MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 BAL MFC: 6 partners DMI: manage BAL MFC nominal PU BSH:leads quality assessment & link to Quality WP17 back-up PU FMI:leads the data assimilation work main Baltic link to the R&D WP19. MSI:Cal/Val unit and performs all Cal/Val activities in BAL MFC. SMHI :DU for BAL MFC + local Service Desk Baltic partner in the Reanalysis WP18 HZG:link research activities in the BAL MFC and other MFCs

3. Partnership MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 WP 7 Baltic Sea MFC (coordination) R&D Implementation & Transition Operation Service DMI BSH (HBM, Cal/Val ) DMI (HBM, ERGOM) FMI (DA) MSI (Cal/Val metrics) FMI, HZG,SMHI (WP19: NEMO) BSH DMI FMI MSI SMHI DMI (PU) BSH (PU) MSI (Cal/Val) SMHI (DU) SMHI (SD)

4. Work Package Main Objectives BAL MFC delivers these products: Forecast for the physical parameters in the Baltic Sea: 60 hours forecast hourly instantaneous values Updated twice pr day Forecast for the bio-chemical parameters in the Baltic Sea: 60 hours forecast hourly instantaneous values Updated twice pr day 2 different Reanalyses for the physical parametres in the Baltic Sea monthly averaged values for 20 years (1990-2009) MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

5. Work Package Main Objectives System: Continue to develop and improve: - Baltic community ocean model HIROMB-BOOS-Model (HBM) performance & quality - BioGeoChemical module (ERGOM) improve technical standard, performance & quality DA scheme: improve performance; improvements -> into production Improve operational set up: new grids; bathymetry; coastline … Product: Improve quality (continue improvements: V0-V1-V2-V3-V4) Improve resolution Initative on multi-model uncertainty estimates MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

6. System Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Main achievements are V2.2 upgrade (Nov 2012): - improved performance - enlarged computational grid: ver. from 50 up to 109 V3 upgrade (next week) - enlarged computational grid: hor.: 3n.m. -> 1n.m. & ver.: 109 -> 122 layers - new initial fields (T & S) - new local coastline & local bottom friction - improved performance Moved DU (share the opr. load in the group) Uncertainty estimates Multi Model Ensembles (initiated BAL-NWS-WP17 ) Learned by experience: the value of a separate back up product …

7. Production Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Main achievements are: V3 products: deliver products on new grid : Baltic Sea 1 n.m. 25 layers (same as V2): 0, 5, 10,.. 100, 150, 200, 300, 400 metres Quality improvements (seen from 2 years Cal run): - Improved initial fields (bottom T & S) - Higher spatial resolution: improved SST improved bottom salinity - Local improvements: - improved bathymetry & local bottom friction (entrance to Baltic) - improved coastline (Estonian coast)

8. Improvements, results, illustrations MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 3 examples: 1) improved SST verified by tide gauges: new coastline around Estonia + higher resolution V2.2 V3 V2.2 V3 Obs

9. Improvements, results, illustrations MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 2) Bottom salinity: Improved due to higher grid resolution V2 V3 V2.2 V3

10. Improvements, results, illustrations MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 3) Storm surge event Nov 2011: Entrance to Baltic Sea -Observed gradient 2.5 m across sill not captured in model => Investigation: - bottom friction: local increase - Revision bathymetry Obs V2.2 V3

11. Production Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Main difficulties encountered BAL group: we have had a not trivial discussion about… core services contra downstream services or… MyOcean product/service contra national /commercial services Our solution: BAL MFC delivers best available product within technical limits of CIS Need for a discussion? - Do we [all regions] see a clear separation MyOcean / National Services? - what do users expect? And contact? V3 product file sizes: 2 x 15 GB for 60 hours forecast Need some compression...

12. First period summary and next steps Summary of 1 st year: - Improved product resolution - Improved product quality (twice) - Re-organized the group a bit…[new DU; new DA unit; REA unit] V4 plans: HBM: Improve the ice model DA: test implementation Bio-chemical: improve model quality Quality metrics: new implementations multi –model uncertainty estimates in Baltic MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013