1. 1West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 West of England Area Rail Studies Outline Summary This presentation summarises the work produced to date as part of these studies.

2. 08/02/2012 2West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Introductions David Crockett – Project Manager Transport Economist – 20 years experience Strategic Rail Studies Thameslink HS2 Industry process RUS / RPA Advisor to Rail Franchises on demand & revenue forecasts Advice on transport appraisal to DfT Graeme Pollard – Rail Operations Specialist Rail Operator – 20+ years experience Worked for rail operators Numerous projects assessing rail capacity Advisor to Rail Franchises on operational capacity

3. 08/02/2012 3West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Process Operations What is possible? What is efficient? Demand/cost/revenue Trade off What is affordable – capital / revenue costs

4. 4West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 Filton Bank Four-track Railway Infrastructure

5. 08/02/2012 5West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Filton Bank What can be delivered without it? – not much! Allows for the capacity to do other things rather than delivering service enhancements itself. Filton Bank enhancements do not include four-tracking between BTM and Parson Street stations. Filton Bank enhancements will not deliver any new stations in the area – per se.

6. 6West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 PHASE 1 - Portishead to Bristol Temple Meads New service and infrastructure

7. 08/02/2012 7West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Portishead to Bristol Temple Meads New service between Portishead & Bristol Temple Meads with extension to Severn Beach. Hourly service provides links to Bristol and Severn Beach. Operational capacity to introduce an hourly shuttle between Bristol and Portishead thus providing a half-hourly service. Additional stations, Portishead, and Pill. Estimated capital costs = £32.9million (£25.1m for track and signalling, £7.75m for two new stations)

8. 8West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 PHASE 1 - Bath to Bristol Shuttle New service

9. 08/02/2012 9West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Bath to Bristol Shuttle New service between Bath Spa & Bristol Temple Meads, with extension to Severn Beach to provide a cross-Bristol (East- West) service. Providing an additional hourly service between Bath and Bristol, & thus 2 tph at Keynesham and Oldfield Park. Due to constraints for turn round at Bath Spa, potential turn round would be undertaken at Bathampton (requires implementation of turnback capability). Estimated capital cost = £2.76million (Bathampton turn back).

10. 10West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 PHASE 1 - Enhancement of Severn Beach service Cross-Bristol Links

11. 08/02/2012 11West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Enhancements to Severn Beach service Potential for Enhanced and New Services. Can be combined to link to Portishead & Bath, providing hourly cross-Bristol services. Half hourly service between Severn Beach & Bristol Temple Meads, with hourly extensions to Bath and Portishead. Can accommodate additional station at Portway (Park and Ride). No additional Capital costs.

12. 12West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 PHASE 1 - METRO

13. 08/02/2012 13West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Greater Bristol Metro – Phase 1

14. 08/02/2012 14West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Demand – Revenue – Operating Costs Initial results are promising. Based around a set of assumptions that require further investigation. Assumptions assume growth in key parts of the network, especially Temple Meads Enterprise Zone. Potential to be included in core franchise specification. BUT More detailed assessment is required. Train Operators always form their own views on the market potential Strong need to engage with the franchise bidders to press the case for Phase 1 Metro.

15. 08/02/2012 15West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Phase 1 Summary Service Level Provision – Post Phase 1 Oldfield Park / Keynsham 2tph Portishead Line 2tph Severn Beach Line 2 tph Parson St – Bedminster additional 1 tph with stopping of Taunton – Cardiff service

16. 16West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 PHASE 2 - Henbury Loop New service and infrastructure

17. 08/02/2012 17West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Henbury Loop New Service between Bristol Temple Meads & Henbury. Likely to be an hourly service between Bristol & Henbury. Potential for continuation of service to link with Severn Beach Line, although it is unlikely that journey times would be competitive. Estimated capital costs (with two new stations) = £21 million Base Scheme includes additional stations at Henbury & Filton North Capacity on line for stops serving Horfield & Ashley Down – business case for these would need to be proven. Links to new development of Filton Airfield and wider Henbury area (potential funding mechanism). Service is not proposed to stop at Stapleton Road and Lawrence Hill, due to operational capacity with other proposed services.

18. 18West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 PHASE 2 - Enhancement of rail service to Yate New service

19. 08/02/2012 19West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Enhancement of services to Yate New Service between Weston- super-Mare & Yate. Provide an additional hourly service between Bristol Temple Meads & Yate. Cross Bristol links (North-South) with the extension to Weston- super-Mare. Estimated capital cost (turn back facility at Yate)= £4.2 million. Further investigations are being carried out to improve the operational efficiency of the Yate turnback.

20. 08/02/2012 20West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Greater Bristol Metro – Phase 2

21. 08/02/2012 21West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Demand – Revenue – Operating Costs Initial results are promising. Based around a set of assumptions that require further investigation. Predicated on growth proposals at Filton Airfield and at Yate. Yate service requires further investigation to improve operational efficiency. Potential to be included in core franchise specification. BUT More detailed assessment is required. Train Operators always form their own views on the market potential

22. 08/02/2012 22West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Phase 2 Summary Service Level Provision – Post Phase 2 PHASE 1 Oldfield Park / Keynsham 2tph Portishead Line 2tph Severn Beach Line 2 tph PHASE 2 Henbury to BTM – 1 tph – with stops at Filton North and Filton Abbey Wood. Scope for increase to 2tph – but additional infrastructure may be required for freight / passenger interface. Yate to BTM - 2 tph

23. 23West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett 08/02/2012 New Stations Package

24. 08/02/2012 24West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett New Stations Potential Build Base Service Levels Issues for New Stations Capital Funding Revenue Funding Operational capacity for additional stops Impact on existing train users Portishead – Pill – delivered as part of Portishead scheme Henbury – Filton North delivered as part of Henbury scheme Strong potential, but business case needs to be proven with: Saltford Ashton Gate Corsham Ashley Down / Horfield

25. 08/02/2012 25West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett Greater Bristol Metro – Phases 1 & 2

26. 08/02/2012 26West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett What is Delivered? Significant change in Rail Provision PHASE 1 £40m investment – primarily on Portishead Half hourly Portishead – BTM, plus cross city run to Severn Beach Half hourly Bath – BTM, plus cross city run to Severn Beach Half hourly Severn Beach – BTM – running through to Bath and Portishead Change Stopping pattern on Cardiff – Taunton to allow stops at Parson St / Bedminster PHASE 2 Henbury – BTM – once Filton built out Weston – Yate – to provide Yate half hourly Station Package with establishment of improved service levels “build it and they will come” Phasing approach fits with industry plans Approach is future proof – Phases 1 and 2 do not negate future phases. Credible response to Industry consultation process.