1. LOUISE O. FRESCO Towards sustainable agriculture Louise O. Fresco

2. LOUISE O. FRESCO Most Humans have been Hunters and Gatherers

3. LOUISE O. FRESCO Agriculture as the basis for urban development, art and science

4. LOUISE O. FRESCO Agriculture is… human activities transforming solar energy at the earth’s surface into useful energy through plants and animals Food chain: “from plant to plate”

5. LOUISE O. FRESCO Mixed Farming in the Middle Ages – Duc de Berry

6. LOUISE O. FRESCO Potatoes and Andean Tubers imported from the New World after 1492

7. LOUISE O. FRESCO Early Mechanisation

8. LOUISE O. FRESCO Urbanisation Bombay 15-20 M Inhabitants

9. LOUISE O. FRESCO Human interventions: agroecosystems Increasing control over nutrients, water and pathogens Substituting human and animal labour by power Area expansion versus Yield increases BUT HIGH ECOLOGICAL COSTS

10. LOUISE O. FRESCO Environmental Damage Destruction of Rain Forest

11. LOUISE O. FRESCO Environmental Damage Salinization

12. LOUISE O. FRESCO Water and Agriculture (2030) 70 % of All Renewable Water Resources used in Agriculture Increase Irrigated Area in Developing Countries by 34%: Only 14 % more water to do so How is this possible? Changing food habits -> increase water needs Efficiency (rice vs wheat 2:1; animal feed) Irrigation efficiency increases from 38 to 42 % Major regional differences In many countries > 4% annual efficiency increase needed

13. LOUISE O. FRESCO Indicative trends in world food needs 1970 2000 2030 World population3.9 billion 6 billion 8.3 billion Available calories per person23602800 3050 Number of hungry people (but Africa declines only from 194 to 183) 915 million 777 million 444 million Meat consumption per person10 kg26 kg37 kg Food imports in developing countries 100 M tons 265 M tons World population annual growth1970-20001.7 % 2000-20301.1% World Food Demand annual growth1970-20002.2% 2000-20301.5%

14. LOUISE O. FRESCO Can we feed 9 bn and fuel the economy sustainably?

15. LOUISE O. FRESCO New Technologies - Precision Agriculture

16. LOUISE O. FRESCO New technologies - Tissue culture

17. LOUISE O. FRESCO Biotechnology

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19. Closed System Agriculture

20. LOUISE O. FRESCO Globalisation, Labeling & Consumers Improve Food Production and Quality (Animal Proteins and Horticulture) Novel & Health Foods Climate Mitigation (CO2, CH4 fix) Ecosystems Management (Water, Biodiversity) Biofuels Future challenges

21. LOUISE O. FRESCO Protest during WTO Meetings in Hong Kong

22. LOUISE O. FRESCO WTO Negotiations Geneva

23. LOUISE O. FRESCO –Dramatic Increase in Trade Volume –Volume of Agricultural Products Increase –More Trade within Regions –Reduction of Domestic Support to Agriculture and Export Subsidies –Increased Market Access (Reduced Tariffs but Technical Barriers Remain) –Trade Liberalisation Continues (Positive Effects on Consumers) –Labeling (GMO and Fair Trade) Agricultural Trade: Negotiations Continue

24. LOUISE O. FRESCO Quality Control along the Food Chain

25. LOUISE O. FRESCO

26. Rice variations Agriculture and Ecosystem Management. Diversity.Hydrology.Landscape Variety trial

27. LOUISE O. FRESCO New Challenges: Climate and Bio-energy

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29. Benefits of higher CO 2

30. LOUISE O. FRESCO Canola (Brassica spp) Biofuel= energy produced directly or indirectly from biomass

31. LOUISE O. FRESCO Sugarcane for Ethanol, Australia

32. LOUISE O. FRESCO Figure 4. Biofuel Yields of Ethanol and Biodiesel Feedstock Ethanol FeedstockBiodiesel Feedstock Source: Fulton et al. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 BarleyWheatCornSugar Beet Sugar Cane SoybeanCastor Beans Sunflower Seed Rape- seed JatrophaPalmoil Liters Per Hectare

33. LOUISE O. FRESCO The Promise of Bio-energy Potential ¼-th – 2 times current global primary energy requirements Short term : vegetable oils and ethanol from sugar cane, wheat sugar beet (1st generation) Coming up: cellulosic ethanol and synthetic diesel (Fisher Tropsch, BTL 2nd generation) –allows for wider range of feedstock –greater reduction in well to wheel CO2-emission per litre of fuel Key success factors –costs of production and distribution –Organisation of the value chain CSR issues (civilization in the value chain) –Energy and GHG- balance –Competition with food –Bio-diversity, erosion

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35. Food or Fuel? Some Price Induced Competition may occur Biofuel Production from Edible Crops is limited anyway Conflict can be avoided by Clever Choice of Feedstock –MSW and Agricultural Residues –High Yield (Perennial) Crops Increased Agricultural Productivity and More Efficient Conversion Processes, will free up Land for Food, Feed and Fuel Bio-energy will be complemented by Energy Efficiency and Other Renewables Revenues from energy farming can boost agricultural productivity and sustainable rural development

36. LOUISE O. FRESCO - Ecosystem services (biodiv, water, green space) - Effects on climate GHG NOx & hydrology (?) - Contribution to climate mitigation (CO2 fixation and biofuels) And then: sustainability…. Definitions (desirabilities). Intergenerational. Social, political and environmental. Trade offs and substitutions. Growth, resilience and stability. Markets & externalities

37. LOUISE O. FRESCO Demand-driven chains are becoming predominant Multiformity and differences in interests between sectors is becoming more accepted Knowledge and insights in basic processes are becoming predominant Agriculture in a changing world

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39. A bio-based economy…? Let’s speculate: Biotechnology for (new) chemicals and materials – at least in processing steps Eco-efficient use of renewable resources as raw materials for the industry Bio- energy (ethanol derived from lingo- cellulose, little starch or oil) Rural bio-refineries will replace port- based oil refineries Recognition of ecological services of agriculture Strong links between research, industry, agriculture and civil society And after 2030?

40. LOUISE O. FRESCO Arcimboldo We are what we eat and what we produce…