1. Modeling Succession Crises in Authoritarian Regimes: Beyond “Slime Mold” Complexity Dr. Britt Cartrite Solomon Asch Center for Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict University of Pennsylvania Paper available at: http://www.psych.upenn.edu/sacsec/abir/

2. Research Questions Why are authoritarian regimes relatively successful in surviving succession crises (Brownlee 2002)? Do different types of authoritarian regimes “survive” differently? When regime breakdown does occur, are there regime-type specific patterns to the breakdown?

3. Virtualstan’s “Slime Mold” Milieu Activated identity Identities in repertoire Information: local neighborhood + global “bias” Agent evolution: Rotation Substitution Rotation + Substitution “Anger”

4. Virtualstan’s “Slime Mold” Milieu 20 identities in the landscape, including: State Identity Loyal Opposition Regional identities

5. Types of Authoritarian Regimes Bureaucratic Authoritarianism (O’Donnell 1973; Collier 1979) Neopatrimonialism (Eisenstadt 1973; Bill and Springborg 1994; Bratton and van de Walle 1997) Bureaucratic Feudalism (Baker 1978)

6. Types of Authoritarian Regimes: Bureaucratic Authoritarianism Clearly hierarchical Allegiances of subordinates are to their immediate superiors Political and social institutions are relatively distinct

7. Types of Authoritarian Regimes: Neopatrimonialism “Great Leader” linked to bureaucracy and various social elites at all levels, disrupting local hierarchies Political and social institutions are relatively indistinct

8. Types of Authoritarian Regimes: Bureaucratic Feudalism More coherent institutions than NP, less than BA Great Leader influences bureaucracy and regional elites, but not their subordinates Political and social institutions are linked, but not deeply

9. Operationalizing Authoritarian Regimes: Non-basic Agent classes Lackeys (lower level bureaucrats) Bureaucrats (higher level bureaucrats) Vassals (regional/ethnic subordinate elites) Lords (regional/ethnic prominent elites) Great Leader

10. Agent classes and distributions BureaucratsLackeysVassalsLordsTotalBasic BA22 (22) 201 (201) 64 (12) 16 (3) 303 (239) 3792 (412) BF0209 (209) 64 (64) 16 (16) 289 (289) 3806 (418) NP0185 (185) 63 (11) 16 (3) 263 (199) 3831 (580)

11. Virtualstan Institutions Great Leader Lord Vassal Bureaucrat Lackey

12. Bureaucratic Authoritarianism Great Leader influence = 4 Bureaucrat: influence = 3; includes GL in decision-making Lackey: influence = 2; sight radius = 2; includes GL in decision-making Lord: influence = 3 Vassal: influence = 2; includes Lord(s) in a radius of 4 in decision-making

13. Bureaucratic Authoritarianism

14. Bureaucratic Feudalism Great Leader influence = 4 Bureaucrat = n/a Lackey: influence = 2; sight radius = 1; includes GL in decision-making Lord: influence = 3 Vassal: influence = 2; includes Lord(s) in a radius of 4 in decision-making

15. Bureaucratic Feudalism

16. Neopatrimonialism Great Leader influence = 4 Bureaucrat = n/a Lackey: influence = 1; sight radius = 1; includes GL in decision-making Lord: influence = 3; includes GL in decision- making Vassal: influence = 2; includes Lord(s) in a radius of 4 in decision-making; includes GL in decision-making

17. Neopatrimonialism

18. Operationalizing Succession Crises: GL_gone_trigger Effects of GL_gone_trigger = 1 Cell of Great Leader (28,29) becomes empty at t=33 Bias ceiling for identity 5 set at -2 for 32<t<58 Bias for identity 5 set to 0 at t=58 (all models), allowed to vary normally thereafter

19. Experimental Protocols 100 pairs of seeds used for each regime type (3) and condition (succession / no succession) for 158 timesteps per run (100x3x2 = 600 runs) Test of 100 random pairs of one type/condition against 100 seed pairs shows no significant difference Virtually identical landscapes Some variation due to variation in non-basic agents Bias range = 3,-3 Tests comparing conditions using 2,-2 range show expected decrease “Scramble” for 0<t<9 (bias volatility = 5000 (50%)), then set to 200 to allow the history to begin “in media res.”

20. Comparing regime types: Seed pairs #26 at t=33 Bureaucratic Authoritarianism Bureaucratic Feudalism Neopatrimonialism

21. Comparing succession and non-succession: Neopatrimonialism (seed pairs #26) t=33 t=58 t=158