1. A Clash of Civilizations? “The fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” “The fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” Samuel P. Huntington

2. The Map of Civilizations

3. Religion determines some civilizational borders

4. “Identity” determines the rest West – Latin America divide: ethnicity? Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” What is the basis for this bloc? African civilization: Essentially what was left after drawing other civilizations

5. Alignments shape civilizational conflicts

6. Implication: “Fault Lines” and Culture Clashes Predict Conflict

7. Decrease in conflicts

8. “Islam Has Bloody Borders and Bloody Innards”

9. a. Interstate War (Bloody Borders) Middle East is unusually prone to war Region is a better predictor than religion: non-Islamic ME states fight as much as Islamic ME states, and Islamic non-ME states fight as much as non-Islamic non- ME states

10. Which civilizations fight the most? Islamic civilization has plenty of conflicts…. …but other civilizations have more “civilizational” conflicts!

11. b. Internal War (Bloody Innards) ME region is more likely to experience political terror and human rights violations BUT region again outperforms religion Oil wealth correlates with both repression and civil war around the world Some majority-Muslim countries are democracies (Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Lebanon) – but most are poor and poor countries tend to experience violence and repression

12. Demographics of Islam What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? About 90%About 90% What percentage of Muslims are Arab? What percentage of Muslims are Arab? About 20%About 20% The largest Muslim country is… The largest Muslim country is… IndonesiaIndonesia Where do Muslims live? Where do Muslims live? Only 33% live in the Middle EastOnly 33% live in the Middle East 25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa

13. Are inter-civilizational conflicts worse?

17. Does Rivalry Matter?

18. Rivalry: Evidence for Learning