1. Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict Gellner & Huntington

2. Nationalism (Gellner) Nationalism is a theory of political legitimacy which requires that ethnic boundaries should not cut across political ones Ethnic boundaries within a state should not separate power holders from the rest.

3. Definitions State: a legally independent entity that has a permanent population, well-defined territory, and a government. Nation: a grouping of people with a common culture (religion, language, history, etc.)

4. Nations and States Many nations cross several states (Kurds) Distribution of The Kurdish People Kurdish% of% of CountryPopulationStateAll Kurds Turkey13,650,00024%53% Iran6,600,00012%26% Iraq4,400,00023%17% Syria1,160,000 9% 4%

5. Nations and States Many states include several “nations” StateGroupGroup Size (% of State) IndiaMuslims98,600,000 (11.6%) Sikhs15,980,000 (1.9%) Kashmiris2,890,000 (0.03%) LebanonMaronites1,360,000 (35.6%) Shi'ites1,085,000 (28.4%) Sunnis780,000 (20.4%) Palestinians 430,000 (11.3%) Druze170,000 (4.5%)

6. Nations and States StateGroupGroup Size (% of State) IraqShi'ites9,800,000(52.0%) Sunnis3,950,000(21.0%) Kurds4,150,000(22.0%) (Source: Ted Gurr, 1990, Minorities at Risk ) There are 5000 distinct communities in the current world of less than 200 nation-states.

7. Sources of Nationalist Conflict 1) Multiple ethnic, religious, or linguistic groups, combined with some type of inequality or injustice 2) Repression or persecution of ethnic groups 3) Nationalist conflict often occurs when a minority nation (group) has political control in a state over a majority nation (group).

8. Consequences of Nationalism 1) Separatist movements 2) Civil war/conflict 3) Irredentism 4) International support for autonomy or secession 5) Refugees

9. Huntington: Clash of Civilizations The world can be divided into 9 major civilizations Western, African, Sinic (Confucian), Hindu, Islamic, Japanese, Latin American, Orthodox, and Buddhist

10. Comparison of Civilizations (Source, Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations ) % of Entire World's: CivilizationTerr.Pop.Econ.Military Western:24.213.148.921.1 African:10.89.52.13.4 Sinic:7.524.010.025.7 Hindu:2.416.43.54.8 Islamic:21.115.911.020.0 Japanese:0.32.28.01.0 L. American:14.99.38.36.3 Orthodox:13.76.16.214.3 Other:5.23.52.03.5

11. Huntington: Clash of Civilizations The bloodiest conflicts in the future will occur along the borders separating these civilizations because: Differences among cultures will not change Interactions in the world are increasing Reaction to the West Economic regionalism reinforces divisions

12. Testing Huntington’s arguments Conflict within Civilizations:28 Within Islam: 7 Within Africa:10 Other:11 Conflict between Civilizations:31 Islam vs. Other:21 Other vs. Other:10 Total Ethnic Conflicts (1993):59 (Source: New York Times 2/7/93, reprinted in Huntington, 1996, The Clash of Civilizations )

13. Testing Huntington’s arguments Empirical Analysis, 1989-1992 (Post Cold War) Column IColumn II Mixed Civilization-2.11*-.96 Distance-.34* Joint Democracy-.33* Power Parity1.01 * Sig at.05 level N=58,274N=36,168 Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)

14. Testing Huntington’s arguments Empirical Analysis, 1946-1988 (Cold War) Column IColumn II Mixed Civilization.33.55 Distance-.30* Joint Democracy-3.12* Power Parity1.17* * Sig at.05 level N=338,976N=267,315 Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)

15. Testing Huntington’s arguments Empirical Analysis, 1816-1945 (Pre-Cold War) Column IColumn II Mixed Civilization-.60*-.59* Distance-.30 Joint Democracy-2.37* Power Parity.17 * Sig at.05 level N=118,648N=97,901 Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)

16. Conclusions Not much empirical evidence for Huntington’s thesis States from different civilizations are actually less likely to fight each (1816-1945, 1989-1992) Once you control for distance, joint democracy, and power parity, civilization membership has no effect on the probability of dyadic militarized conflict (except from 1816-1945, and it is neg.)

17. Further Debate on the Horizon? Newer tests (by FSU grad students!) using expanded post Cold War data (1990-2001) provide stronger support. Pairs of states from different civilizations are more likely to fight (esp. if they share a direct border). There is some evidence that likelihood of conflict is higher in West vs. Rest dyads.