1. Preliminary Results from Project Athena Project Athena Team Presentation to the COLA Scientific Advisory Committee April 12, 2010 Very (Major Computing Operations Ended 0800 April 1)

2. Many Thanks To … ECMWF – Mats Hamrud – Thomas Jung – Martin Miller – Tim Palmer (co-PI) – Peter Towers – Nils Wedi NICS – Phil Andrews (co-PI) – Troy Baer – Matt Ezell – Christian Halloy – Dwayne John – Bruce Loftis – Kwai Wong Cray – Pete Johnsen – Per Nyberg NSF – AGS: Jay Fein – OCI: Steve Meacham, Rob Pennington JAMSTEC/U. Tokyo – Chihiro Kodama – Masaki Satoh (co-PI, U. Tokyo) – Hirofumi Tomita (co-PI, JAMSTEC) – Yohei Yamada COLA – Deepthi Achutavarier – Jennifer Adams – Eric Altshuler – Ben Cash – Paul Dirmeyer – Brian Doty – Bohua Huang – Emilia Jin – Jim Kinter (PI) – Larry Marx – Julia Manganello – Cristiana Stan – Tom Wakefield

3. Many Thanks To … ECMWF – Mats Hamrud – Thomas Jung – Martin Miller – Tim Palmer (co-PI) – Peter Towers – Nils Wedi NICS – Phil Andrews (co-PI) – Troy Baer – Matt Ezell – Christian Halloy – Dwayne John – Bruce Loftis – Kwai Wong Cray – Pete Johnsen – Per Nyberg NSF – AGS: Jay Fein – OCI: Steve Meacham, Rob Pennington JAMSTEC/U. Tokyo – Chihiro Kodama – Masaki Satoh (co-PI, U. Tokyo) – Hirofumi Tomita (co-PI, JAMSTEC) – Yohei Yamada COLA – Deepthi Achutavarier – Jennifer Adams – Eric Altshuler – Ben Cash – Paul Dirmeyer – Brian Doty – Bohua Huang – Emilia Jin – Jim Kinter (PI) – Larry Marx – Julia Manganello – Cristiana Stan – Tom Wakefield

4. Qualitative Analysis: 2009 NICAM Precipitation May 21-August 31

6. May 2009 - Tropical Cyclone Aila 23May09 25May09 21May09 NICAM simulation accurately predicted development, evolution and track of Aila over 5- day period

7. Qualitative to Quantitative: Beyond Animations Athena Catalog – 8 NICAM (7 km) Boreal summer cases – 9 IFS T2047 (10 km) Boreal summer cases – 20 IFS T2047 13-month hindcasts – 48 IFS 13-month hindcasts at T1279 (16 km), T511 (40 km), T159 (128 km) – 50 year IFS AMIP run at T1279, T511, T159 – 50 year IFS timeslice run at T1279, T511, T159 – Multiple ensemble members for select seasons at T1279, T511, T159 Sufficient data for quantitative analysis

8. 7km: NICAM JJA Mean Rainfall at native resolution (8 seasons)

9. 10km: IFS T2047 JJA Mean Rainfall at native resolution (8 seasons)

10. 40 km: Chen et al. 0.5 degree JJA Mean Rainfall (8 seasons)

11. 25 km: TRMM JJA Mean Rainfall (8 seasons)

12. 128 km: IFS T159 JJA Mean Rainfall native resolution (8 seasons)

13. JJA Mean Precip Diurnal Cycle Amplitude 2001-2009 (mm/day) Diurnal amplitude accurately represented

14. JJA Mean Precip Diurnal Cycle Phase 2001-2009 (local hour of max) Qualitative differences between IFS and NICAM Plateau in improvement with resolution?

15. IFS JFM Mean Snow Depth CONUS Transect at 40 N Interpolated high-resolution agrees with native T159 Orographic features are not represented

16. Coarse Native Decreasing Resolution Biases Distribution

18. LARGE BIASES REMAIN

19. JJA Mean Diurnal Cycle Phase 2001-2009 (local hour of max) NICAM more accurate in reproducing phase, despite large bias in amplitude

20. Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions Modest improvement with resolution All data at T159

21. Clear improvement in representing interannual variability

22. Tropical Cyclones Identification and Calibration Hodges Method:  850-hPa relative vorticity max  Lifetime > 2 days  Cyclogenesis in 0-20N over land and 0-30N over oceans  ξi / ξv, where  ξi is the 850-hPa relative vorticity threshold,  ξv is the threshold for difference in vorticity between 850 hPa and 250 hPa  ξi / ξv must hold for 1 day OBS: data from IBTrACS for 1979-2008 OBS-STR: TCs with max 10-min sustained winds > 15.4 m/s (30 kt)

23. Track Density (Northern Hemisphere) Observed - Bengtsson et al. 2007 IFS T1279 IFS T511 IFS T159 Similar results with model dependent calibration

24. Track Density (Northern Hemisphere) Observed - Bengtsson et al. 2007 IFS T1279 IFS T511 IFS T159 Applying T1279 calibration to T159 eliminates most storms

25. Track Density (Northern Hemisphere)

26. Maximum Attained Wind Speed (1979-2008) NAtl WPac Observed IFS T511 and T1279 Distribution shifts with resolution Still weaker than observed IFS: 10-m wind speed (10-min ave (T1279), 15-min ave (T511)) MJJASON season, 1979-2008 IFS NAtl: 10-m wind speed (10-min ave (T1279), 15-min ave (T511)), MJJASON season, 1979-2008

27. TS CAT 1 CAT2 CAT3 CAT4 CAT5 TS CAT 1 CAT2 CAT3 CAT4 CAT5 IFS T2047 238 storms 7.5 min avg NICAM GL10 275 storms 30 sec avg Maximum Attained Wind Speed JJA Simulations T2047 distribution similar to T1279 – more evidence of a plateau? Higher percentage of strong storms in NICAM

28. Summary – Unique data set and analysis opportunities Small fraction at COLA Fall catalog in archive at NICS – Precipitation Generally Improved Orographic features evident Diurnal cycle can be well-represented – No clear winner among models – Plateau in benefit of resolution with parameterized convection? Large tropical biases remain – Resolution is not a panacea

29. Summary (cont’d) – Impact of Resolution on Large Scales Improved blocking and synoptic statistics Atlantic air-sea coupling Important implications for climate change – Tropical cyclones improve with resolution What are T159 ‘cyclones’? Impact of non-parameterized convection? – Support for other COLA activities Monsoon predictability Maya express at T1279? MUCH more to come