1. UK Approach to National Security 19 Jan 11

2. > Our approach > National Security Strategy > Strategic Defence and Security Review - SDSR Content

3. Approach > Defence as part of National Security > Afghanistan > Trident Value for Money Study > Defence Reform Unit > Regular Reviews

4. > Strategic Context > Britain’s Distinctive Role > National Security Risk Assessment > Adaptable Britain > National Security Tasks & Planning Guidelines National Security Strategy

5. > Strategic Context –Terrorism - international and NI-related –Changing character of conflict –Increasingly multi-polar and interconnected –Scientific and technological innovation –Social and demographic trends –Climate change and natural resources National Security Strategy

6. > Britain’s Distinctive Role –Connected and at the heart of many global networks –Role in international affairs –Enlightened national self-interest –Openness exposes us to risks and opportunities –Our response - 2 strategic objectives: A secure and resilient UK Shaping a stable world National Security Strategy

7. > National Security Risk Assessment –Domestic and overseas; 5 and 20 years –Likelihood and impact –Vulnerability –Tier 1 risks: Cyber International military crisis International terrorism Major accident or natural hazard National Security Strategy -- Likelihood Impact

8. > Adaptable Britain –Respond to highest priority risks –Respond to low probability but very high impact risks –Focus on upstream activity –Retain a broad spectrum of security and defence capabilities –Strengthen relationships with key allies –Coordinate and integrate whole of Government response National Security Strategy

9. > National Security Tasks & Planning Guidelines –Identify and monitor risks and opportunities; –Tackle the causes of instability; –Exert influence; –Enforce domestic law and strengthen international norms; –Protect the UK and our interests at home, at our border, and internationally; –Help resolve conflicts and contribute to stability. Where necessary, intervene overseas; –Provide resilience; –Work in alliances and partnerships. National Security Strategy

10. > Process > Principles > Military Tasks > Planning Assumptions > Force Structure > Decisions SDSR

11. Phase 1 - Policy Baseline Publication Phase 3 - Force Testing Phase 6 - Implementation Policy and Capability Studies Phase 2 - Policy and Capability Studies MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Phase 4 - Synthesis and Costing Phase 5 - Decision and Presentation SDSR Process

12. MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Phase 1 - Policy Baseline Publication Phase 3 - Force Testing Phase 6 - Implementation Policy and Capability Studies Phase 2 - Policy and Capability Studies Phase 4 - Synthesis and Costing Phase 5 - Decision and Presentation SDSR Wider Process Green Paper Future Character of Conflict Jul 09 Feb 10 Feb 09 Feb 10 Global Strategic Trends mid-08 Feb 10

13. > Use of Armed Forces > National interest > Upstream activity > Flexibility Principles

14. > Providing strategic intelligence > Providing nuclear deterrence > Defending the UK and its Overseas Territories > Supporting civil emergency organisations in times of crisis > Providing a Defence contribution to UK influence > Defending our interests by projecting power strategically and through expeditionary interventions > Providing security for stabilisation Military Tasks

15. Policy Choices Prioritise Capabilities and shape the force structure to achieve affordability HomelandInfluenceInterventionStabilisation Matching Resource to Aspiration Increasing Levels of Ambition Developing the Policy Response

16. The Armed Forces in the future will be sized and shaped to conduct: an enduring stabilisation operation at around brigade level (up to 6,500 personnel) with maritime and air support as required, while also conducting: one non-enduring complex intervention (up to 2,000 personnel), and one non-enduring simple intervention (up to 1,000 personnel); OR alternatively: three non-enduring operations if we were not already engaged in an enduring operation; OR: for a limited time, and with sufficient warning, committing all our effort to a one-off intervention of up to three brigades, with maritime and air support (around 30,000, two-thirds of the force deployed to Iraq in 2003). Defence Planning Assumptions

17. Future Force 2020

18. > Maritime defence of the UK and Overseas Territories > Nuclear Continuous at Sea Deterrence (CASD) > Credible and capable presence in priority regions > Strike – carrier strike and submarine (TLAM) Future Force 2020 > Single operational carrier; 2nd at extended readiness > 4 Vanguard SSBN and 7 Astute SSN submarines > 19 Destroyers/Frigates > 14 MCMV plus logistic support and RORO ferries > 3 Commando Brigade and Commando Helicopter Force Merlins > c30,000 by 2015; 29,000 by 2020 Royal Navy

19. Reductions > Decommission HMS Ark Royal > Decommission HMS Illustrious > Decommission 4 frigates and a Bay-class amphibious support ship > Place an amphibious landing ship (HMS Albion or Bulwark) at extended readiness Royal Navy

20. > Standing commitments eg bomb disposal and Falklands > Light specialist forces for short interventions > Multi-role forces for more complex interventions or enduring stabilisation operations > The ability to command coalitions Future Force 2020 > 5 x multi-role brigades and 16 Air Assault Brigade > Approx 1/3 less heavy armour; but buying FRES Specialist and Utility Variants > “Best Effort” deployment of 3 brigades > c95,000 by 2015; 94,000 by 2020 Army

21. Reductions > Challenger 2 tanks by around 40% > AS90 heavy artillery by around 35% > One deployable brigade (as we restructure to 5 multi-role brigades) > Significantly reduce non-deployable regional command structure > Rationalise deployable headquarters Army

22. > Air defence of the UK, Falklands and deployed forces > Credible and capable combat air presence > Expeditionary combat air incl strategic and tactical airlift > ISTAR and RAF Regiment ground units Future Force 2020 > Typhoon and JSF (Carrier Variant - jointly operated by RN & RAF) > C17, A400M, Airbus A330 transport/tanker > Chinook, Puma, Merlin > E3D Sentry, Rivet Joint, UAVs > c33,000 by 2015; 31,500 by 2020 Royal Air Force

23. Reductions > Remove Joint Force Harrier (RN/RAF) in 2011 > Do not bring the Nimrod MRA4 into service > Reduce VC-10 to refuelling role, and aim to withdraw by 2013 > Remove 3 variants of Tristar from 2013 > Withdraw C130J by 2022 > Withdraw Sentinel once it is no longer required in Afghanistan Royal Air Force

24. > Commitment to continuous at sea submarine-based deterrent > 1 st new submarine in 2028; decision needed 2016 > 8 missile tubes (vice 12) > 40 warheads per submarine (vice 48) > No more than 180 warheads (vice 225); decision on replacement needed 2019 > £3 Bn cost reduction over 10 years Strategic Nuclear Deterrent

25. > Contribute to a wide range of intervention and stabilisation operations, as well as other commitments > Maintain regular SF front line units > Significantly enhance support capabilities Special Forces

26. > New UK Defence Cyber Operations Group –Cyber operations will be conducted in parallel with more conventional actions in the maritime, land and air domains –Mainstream cyber throughout Defence activities –A cadre of experts to secure our own networks and develop new capabilities –Integrated planning, training and exercises –Close relationships across Government, with Allies and with industry Cyber

27. > Decrease by 25,000 to 60,000 by 2015 –Natural turnover –Limited external recruitment –Early release programme –Consultation with Trades Unions Civil Service

28. > Armed Forces Covenant > Defence Estate Other

29. Alliances & Partnerships

30. > New models of bilateral cooperation: –Greater reliance on capability, role sharing and equipment collaboration with close Allies –Reinforced relationship with US –Intensified cooperation with France –Greater cooperation with regional partners to shared security concerns > Enhance effectiveness of multilateral cooperation: –UN - improve effectiveness, conflict prevention focus, coordination with NATO/EU and cyber cooperation; –NATO reform - support Strategic Concept, NATO reform, EU/NATO cooperation –EU - continue enlargement; focus resources on support to (civilian and military) missions. Alliances & Partnerships

31. > Defence Reform Unit – Lord Levene –Restructure MOD: Policy, Strategy, Finance Armed Forces Acquisition, Commercial, Estates, Corporate Services –Senior rank structure > Force generation and sustainability Efficiencies

32. > Strategy for Defence > Technical Instruction > Defence Strategic Direction > Defence Industrial Strategy > Review of Reserves Implementation

33. > Uncertainty: adaptability; readiness > Future Conflict: intelligence; precision; mobility > Independence: UK; Overseas Territories > Multilateralism: risk management > Combat Focused: reductions in non-front line areas > Affordability SDSR Themes

34. Questions