1. Family Formation Patterns Among Young People: General Trends and Emerging Issues in East and Southeast Asia Minja Kim Choe, East-West Center Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and Development July 21, 2011 UN/DESA, New York 1

2. Outline 1.Current patterns of family formation 2.Recent changes and patterns in selected countries 3.Correlates of changes and patterns 4.Consequences 5.Emerging issues 2

3. Current patterns of family formation 1.Marriage 2.Childbearing 3

4. Percentage ever married among 15-19 year olds by gender, most recent data 4

5. Percentage ever married among 20-24 year olds by gender, most recent data 5

6. Singulate mean age at marriage by sex, most recent data 6

7. Age-specific fertility rates (births per 1,000 women) for ages 15-19 and 20-24, 2005-2010 7

8. Recent changes and patterns in selected countries 8

9. Trends in singulate mean age at marriage for women and men, Japan, 1970-2005 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 9

10. Trends in singulate mean age at marriage for women and men, Republic of Korea, 1970-2005 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 10

11. Trends in singulate mean age at marriage for women and men, Thailand, 1970-2000 11

12. Trends in singulate mean age at marriage for women and men, Indonesia, 1971-2005 12

13. Changes in fertility rates 1970-2005 Japan, Republic of Korea, and China Ages 15-19 Ages 20-24 13

14. Changes in fertility rates 1988-1992 to 2003-2007, Indonesia Ages 15-19 Ages 20-24 14

15. Correlates of patterns and changes –Education –Institutional aspect –Women’s labor force participation –Attitude 15

16. Education 16

17. Trends in % of high school graduates advancing to higher education: Japan and Republic of Korea 17

18. Female SMAM by education Japan, Republic of Korea, and China, 1990 & 2000 JapanKoreaChina 199020001990200019902000 <High school High school Junior college 4-yr college+ 24.6 25.9 27.4 28.1 26.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 23.2 25.2 26.3 27.3 24.8 25.5 27.8 28.5 -- <Jr high school Jr high school High school >High school -- 21.4 22.2 23.7 25.6 21.8 23.1 24.6 25.6 18

19. Estimated percentages of men who marry by age 20 and of women who marry by age 18, by level of education and urban/rural residence, Indonesia, 1999 19

20. Estimated percentages of women who give first birth 20, by level of education and urban/rural residence, Indonesia, 1999

21. Institutional aspect 21

22. Life course pattern of stopping school (S), marrying (M) and becoming a parent (B), Japan and U. S., % distribution Order of eventsUS (1999) women 26-33Japan (2000) women 25-35 S B M41 S B NM40 S M B3047 S M NB1211 S NM NB1941 B S M20 B S NM30 B M S30 M S B70 M S NB60 M B S110 N of women58252299 22

23. Percentage of extramarital births in selected countries 23

24. Labor force participation of women (Republic of Korea) 24

25. Percent distribution of occupation of ever-married women just before marriage, ages 25-34 and 35-44, Republic of Korea, 2003 25

26. Attitude changes (Japan) 26

27. Selected attitudes about marriage and family, Japan, 1994-2009 A woman can have a full and satisfying life without marrying (Women no marr) A man can have a full land satisfying life without marrying (Men no marr) It is all right for an unmarried woman to have sex (Women premarr sex) A young man and a woman should not live together unless they are married (cohabitation) It is all right for a woman to have children without marrying (non marr birth) 27

28. Percent with non-traditional attitudes in 2009 28

29. Gender differences in non-traditional attitudes in 2009 (% among women - % among men) 29

30. Percentages reporting non-traditional family behavior, Japanese men and women aged 20-49 at the time of survey 30

31. Summary of attitude change in Japan Main streams –Preference to move away from institutional constraints Other factors –Adjusting to difficult economic times –Importance of mother role for preschool children Gender difference and potential impact on marriage and childbearing behavior Implications on family and labor force policies 31

32. A woman can have full and satisfying life without having children Predicted percent non-traditional by age in 2000 Predicted percent non- traditional by year of survey * * Rf Men Women 32

33. It is alright for an unmarried woman to have sex Predicted percent non-traditional by age in 2000 Predicted percent non- traditional by year of survey Rf * Men Women * * * * * * * * * 33

34. A young man and woman should not live together unless they are married Predicted percent non-traditional by age in 2000 Predicted percent non- traditional by year of survey Rf * Men Women * * * * * * 34

35. It is alright for a woman to have children without marrying Predicted percent non-traditional by age in 2000 Predicted percent non- traditional by year of survey Rf * Men Women * * * * * 35

36. Consequences –Fertility decline and population aging –Extended period of adolescence (Youth at risk) –Work and family 36

37. Very low fertility Underachieved fertility preference 37

38. Trends in total fertility rate in five Asian countries 38

39. Emerging Issues Achieving millennium development goal Reproductive health Very low fertility – Delayed childbearing – Underachieved fertility preference Rapid population aging – Labor force Work and family Marriage squeeze Cross-border marriages

40. Reproductive health 40

41. Estimated cumulative percentages who ever had sexual intercourse and who are ever married, Thailand, 1994 Note: Proportions are estimated by the life-table method. Sex, female Marriage, male Sex, male Marriage, female 41

42. Estimated cumulative percentages who ever had sexual intercourse and who are ever married, Philippines, 1994 Note: Proportions are estimated by the life-table method. Sex, female Marriage, male Sex, male Marriage, female 42

43. Estimated cumulative percentages who ever had sexual intercourse and who are ever married, Taiwan, 1994 Note: Proportions are estimated by the life-table method. Sex, female Marriage, male Sex, male Marriage, female 43

44. Percent ever had premarital sex

45. Percent who ever had sex by type of first partner, men and women age 15-24 Thailand Philippines Taiwan Men Women

46. Uncommitted Sex is More Common Among Men Than Among Women In the Philippines (1994), among married youths with premarital sexual experiences – 37 % of men and 3% of women had premarital sex with someone other than spouse

47. Common risk factors for uncommitted premarital sex Early transition to adulthood –Completing education –Leaving parental home Having experiences of substance use Having friends who had premarital sex

48. Reproductive Health Knowledge Most adolescents feel that they have inadequate knowledge about sex Reproductive health education received at school has no/little effect on premarital sex or other risk taking behavior

49. Prevalence of contraceptive use among sexually active single male youth Philippines (1994) –30% used a contraceptive method during the most recent sexual intercourse (9% used condom) Taiwan (1994) –29% use contraceptives consistently Thailand (1994) –48% of those who had first sex with a casual or commercial partner used a contraceptive method

50. Condom knowledge among Filipino youth age 15-24 More than 95% know about condoms. Of them, –75% knew that condoms can prevent pregnancies –66% knew that condoms can prevent STIs –58% knew that condoms can prevent HIV/AIDS If used correctly

51. Negative attitudes on condoms among Filipino youth (1994) Reduces pleasure: 58% Too expensive to use regularly: 34% Too embarrassing to buy at a store: 47% Against religion: 32% 90% have at least one negative attitude 65% have two or more negative attitudes

52. Total fertility rate (TFR) from various sources and mean ideal number of children, 1960-2009, Republic of Korea

53. FP = IP * f (F,U,M,C) FP = Final Parity IP = Intended Parity F = Fecundity U = Unwanted births M = Marriage (Union) C = Competition (Other goals) Conceptual model by Bongaarts (2001)

54. Work and family 54

55. Female Labor-Force Participation Rate by Age Japan 1970-2005 55

56. Female Labor-Force Participation Rate by Age Korea 1970-2005 56

57. Average hours spent on housework and childcare per week by gender WomenMen Japan197623.10.9 198628.02.1 199626.43.2 200626.14.6 South Korea198719.02.3 199017.62.1 200423.74.1 Netherlands197532.48.7 198033.48.8 198533.210.3 198834.217.6 57

58. Percent distribution of occupation of ever-married women just before marriage and at the time of survey for selected age groups, South Korea, 2003 58

59. Mean hours per week spent by wives and husbands on household tasks by wives’ work hours, Japan 2009 Wives’ work hours (N) Wives’ task hours Husbands’ task hours None (663)31.82.9 1 – 15 (147)26.82.9 16 – 34 (331)27.33.2 35 – 41 (250)22.54.0 42 – 48 (160)22.85.3 49 or more (90)23.24.1 59

60. None 1-2 3-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Hours spent on housework Percentage distribution of the number of hours spent on housework per week of currently married wives and husbands aged 20-49: Japan 1994 and 2000 Percent

61. Comparison of preferred hours of employment for wife to her actual hours: wife’s and husband’s preferences Japan, 2000

62. Percentages of wives working more hours than preferred by level of education

63. Covariates of working fewer hours than preferred Logistic regression model Wives Age < 30 years+ Coresidence with parents/in-law-- Youngest child preschool age+++ Wife’s education: university- Husband’s work hours < 35+++ Husbands’ income+++ Controlled for wife’s age, wife’s education, and husband’s education

64. Covariates of working more hours than preferred Logistic regression model Wives Age < 30 years- Youngest child preschool age--- Wife’s education: some college university + +++ Husband’s work hours-- Husbands’ income--- Controlled for wife’s age, wife’s education, and husband’s education

65. Marriage squeeze 65

66. Mixture survival model estimates of the probability never marrying by education for selected groups of men and women, Republic of Korea Born 1946-65 Born 1966-75 Born 1943-52 Born 1963-72 W O M E N M E N 66

67. High sex ratio at birth and fluctuating cohort sizes will produce some degree of marriage squeeze for men in Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and China. Gender difference in views on marriage and patterns of spouse matching will have larger effects on later marriage and less marriage. 67

68. Cross-border marriages 68

69. Percentages of marriages with foreign spouses South Korea, 2000-2009

70. Percentages of marriages with Taiwanese husbands and non-Taiwanese wives, 1998-2006