1. CTF-956 Mission Analysis Brief
26 Aug 2014
Overall Classification:
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA,MNFA 1
UNCLASSIFIED

2. Agenda Area of Operations (AO) Initial Intelligence Estimate
Enemy COAs
Higher Headquarters Mission/Intent
Task Organization
Command Relationships
Forces Available
Specified/Implied/Essential Tasks
Limitations
Assumptions/ IRs
Proposed Initial CCIRs
Risk Assessment
Proposed Mission Statement
Conclusions - Shortfalls/Showstoppers/Recommendations
Initial Staff Estimates
Commander’s Comments

3. Area of Operations (AO)
1Aug – EOM
Mile Hammock Bay
Bogue Field
21 Aug – 25 Aug
Morehead City (Sea buoy (RADCON buoy) to Gate exit)
25 Aug – 1 Dec
MSRs
TBD (O/A 15 Oct) (N35 33’ W077 00’ )
Amberland School
26 Oct – EOM
Water Well (N35 36’ W076 51’ )

4. 10 Miles
Area of Operations

5. Area of Influence
Connecting Area to Area of Operations plus 3 miles out to sea within natural borders

6. 10 Miles
Area of Operations

7. Area of Interest (AOI) Amberland plus 40 miles north and south
Amberland plus 12 nm out to sea

8. Tropical / Nontropical Storm Tracks (Oct / Nov)
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
Seasonal Discussion
Hurricane Season runs from June 01st, through November 30th .
The peak for tropical storm activity is normally near September 10th.
CFMCC forces need to maintain situational awareness regarding the
potential for tropical storm activity along the southeastern area of the
Treasure Coast during this period.

9. Climatology: October
Amberland

10. Climatology: November
Amberland
Amberland

11. Terrain: Water table Amberland
A coastal plain is an area of flat, low-lying land adjacent to a seacoast.
Physiographic Province
Landtype (geomorphic setting)
Average annual ground water depth
Upper Coastal Plain
lakes, rivers, and reservoirs
0 feet
wetlands ,wet floodplains, and bays
0-5 feet
flats
ridges, hills, slopes, and scarps
5-15 feet
Physiographic Province
Ridge-to-Stream Dist ance
Search Radius
Upper Coastal Plain
6000 feet
10 cells

12. Proper Home for Ambertines Revolutionary Militia (PHARM)
(Asymmetric Threat)
PHARM (aka Lovisa-PHARM) is a tribal Escambian Shahida fundamentalist militia.
Primarily operates in Amberland, with possible cells located throughout the treasure coast. HQ Jacksonville
Established to create an Ambertine- controlled and administered independent republic
Objectives
Drive Amber’s government out of power in favor of a PHARM approved regime
Promote radical Shahida ideology through terrorism as well as political means
Jacksonville, XZ
Primary Leaders
Supreme Leader:
Peter Polva
President:
Aplai Onbil-Hamblit
PHARM
PIA

13. PHARM: Situation Composition: Primarily Lovisa guerrillas
Disposition: HQ in Jacksonville, XZ
Strength: Unknown
Training Status: Unknown
Logistics: Unspecified Garnetian support, financial aid received from wealthy businessman
Effectiveness: Historically able to force Amblerland government into negotiations
Electronic Tech Data: Unknown
Personalities: Peter Polva and Artis Plants
Jacksonville, XZ
13 miles
Bogue Field, XZ
8 miles
Mile Hammock Bay, XZ

14. PIA: Situation Composition: Unknown
Disposition: Headquarters in Myrtle Beach, Amberland. Cells throughout Treasure Coast
Strength: ~ active members
Training Status: Unknown
Logistics:
Logistical network consist of warehouses
Front companies and NGOs
Assessed ~$120 million budget
Effectiveness: Has successfully caused multimillion dollar damage to US assets
Electronic Tech Data: Unknown; however, a communications company is with the group’s support network
Personalities: Jibril al-Tariq, Manfred al-Tariq, Kire al-Tariq, Dr. Neiland Wascowiczk
Mile Hammock Bay, XZ
102 miles
Myrtle Beach, XZ

15. PIA: Capabilities & Limitations
Day & Night attacks
Land & Maritime attacks
Attacking hard & soft targets
Military & Commercial targets
Bombings and SAF
Deception
False documents
Disguises
Limitations:
Finite funding
Limited manpower
Trained members

16. Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTP)
PHARM
Recruit through religious motivation
Damage critical infrastructure to weaken national government
Employs explosive devices
PIA
Attacks lightly defended targets
Attacks targets representing ideals counter to their own ideals
Blend in to their operating environment by altering their appearance
Utilize fraudulent documentation for pre and post operation movements

17. Enemy Center of Gravity
PHARM
COG
* Lovisa Clan Support CC
1) Maintain Sizable force CR
1a) Legitimacy resulting in receptive population to their messaging
2) Maintaining logistical flows
1b) Porous border allowing for supply/personnel/training
2a) Positive control over border crossings CV
Legitimacy required for messaging
PIA
COG
* Financial Network CC
1) Funding Operations CR
1a) The ability to funnel money from front companies to illicit activities
2) Funding Training
1b) Have access to Jibril's ~120M USD
2a) Funds to purchase false documents CV
Funds for activities come for legitimate sources vice illicit

18. Enemy COAs PHARM: PIA: Most Likely Most Likely Most Dangerous
Maintain intermittent asymmetrical attacks on Amberland government interest
Most Dangerous
Begin targeting US interest, including Bogue Field or the US Embassy, to force Amberland government into negotiations
PIA:
Most Likely
Sporadic harassing attacks with explosives along LOCs and SLOCs to limit US and coalition freedom of movement
Most Dangerous
Attack employing disguises and falsified documents to gain entry to the US Embassy in order to conduct an attack employing small arms and explosives

19. CFMCC Mission Statement
NLT 1 AUG 2014, CFMCC CONDUCTS THEATER SECURITY COOPERATION (TSC) OPERATIONS IN AMBERLAND AND ITS TERRITORIAL WATERS TO ESTABLISH LOCAL SECURITY, RESTORE INFRASTRUCTURE AND SUPPORT UNSCRS IN ORDER TO INCREASE HOST NATION CAPACITY, CAPABILITIES AND REGIONAL STABILITY. BE PREPARED TO (BPT) CONDUCT NON-COMBATANT EVACUATION (NEO) OF U.S. AND COALITION CITIZENS. BPT CONDUCT FOREIGN HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (FHA) OPERATIONS. BPT TO CONDUCT RECEPTION, STAGING, ONWARD MOVEMENT AND INTEGRATION (RSOI) OF FOLLOW-ON U.S. AND COALITION FORCES.

20. CFMCC Commanders Intent
PURPOSE. CFMCC FORCES WILL CONDUCT TSC OPERATIONS IN AMBERLAND TO INCREASE HOST NATION CAPACITY, CAPABILITIES AND REGIONAL STABILITY AND TO DEMONSTRATE COALITION RESOLVE AGAINST PHARM AND GARNET AGGRESSION.

21. CFMCC Commanders Intent
METHOD. THE EASTCOM TSC PROGRAM PROVIDES A VISIBLE BUT NOT AGGRESSIVE U.S. INFLUENCE IN TREASURE COAST. THE TSC PROGRAM INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING TASKS: CRITICAL MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY TO INCLUDE LANDWARD AND SEAWARD PORT AND HARBOR SECURITY AND HIGH VALUE ASSET ESCORT; C-IED OPERATIONS; CARGO HANDLING FROM BOTH EXPEDITIONARY AND FUNCTIONING PORTS; MARITIME SECURITY OPERATIONS WITH COASTAL AND RIVERINE BOATS; AND INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION TO INCLUDE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL CONSTRUCTION. CONCEPTUALLY, THIS TSC PROGRAM WILL INCREASE THE CAPABILITIES OF THE AMBERLAND CIVIL AND MILITARY FORCES AND PROVIDE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS THAT BENEFIT THE CITIZENS OF AMBERLAND. MY INTENT IS TO DEMONSTRATE U.S. SUPPORT FOR HN AUTHORITY WHILE IMPROVING KEY INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE NATION. WE NEED TO PROTECT OURSELVES FROM TERRORIST ACTIVITIES THAT WILL PRESSURE US TO LEAVE OR OTHERWISE DEGRADE OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENTS.

22. CFMCC Commanders Intent
ENDSTATE. INCREASED SECURITY AND INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY AND CAPABILITY IN AMBERLAND AND IMPROVED CONFIDENCE AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH AMBERLAND CIVILIANS AND MILITARY.

23. 1 August Task Organization
UN / WFP/ IMO
US EASTCOM
AFEAST
CTF 951
ATF
CTF 952 LF
AMBER/AMBERLAND COUNTRY TEAMS
SOCEAST
AREAST
NAVEAST
CTF 957
MPRG
CTF 954
TASW
CTF 956
NEF
CTF 953
LOG
MARFOREAST
SPMAGTF - CR
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

24. NEF Task Organization UNCLASSIFIED 4/15/2017 4/15/2017 EODMU – 30 PAX
CTF 956
NEF
EODGRU2
~73 Pax (act)
PMU
EODMU 6
NMCB 1
NCHB 11
CRS-4
9 pax (act)
Air Det (-)
CBMU 202
UCT 1
Air Cargo Co (-)
EOD PLT
Cargo Term Co
ALPHA Co
CEXC PLT
Ex Support Co (-)
Landward Security
NMCB 5
NLD EOD PLT
10 pax (act)
54 (notional)
Seaward Security
UUV/VSW
Air Det
BRAVO Co
~640Pax (act)
AS PLT
29 pax (act)
249 (notional)
Landward Security
EODMU – 30 PAX
EOD PLT – 8 PAX EACH
IET 8 PAX
COMCAM 6 PAX
NMCB AIR DET – 89 PAX
DELTA 1 113
COMCAM
Seaward Security
~60 Pax (act)
DELTA Co
COCOM
OPCON
Coordination
TACON
TACOM
Delta 1 (RCB, MK IV)
Delta 2 (RPB/RAB)
US Forces
PSU 307
NLD Forces
Landward Security
VIRTUAL
Seaward Security
UNCLASSIFIED 24

25. Command Relationships
COMUSEASTCOM is the supported Commander
USNAVFOREAST has been designated CFMCC in the EASTCOM AOR
CRS-4 is supported Commander for SPOD operations at Mile Hammock Bay and Morehead City operations
NMCB 1 and NMCB 5 is supported Commander for construction projects
EODMU 6 is supported Commander for C-IED operations

26. CTF 956 Force Available UNIT CAP TASK PAX GEAR MODE/LOC UNCLASSIFIED
4/15/2017
CTF 956 Force Available
UNIT
CAP
TASK
PAX
GEAR
MODE/LOC
CTF 956
(GRU2) C2
Naval Command and Control of NEF Forces in Amberland
73 (act)
J04ESU(-)
J04MCP
Line Haul/Bogue
CTG 956.1
(FDPMU)
Prev Med
Conduct prev med operations to sustain all forces under CTF 956 and render humanitarian aid as required
9 (act)
14 (not)
FDPMU Mobile Lab
CTG 956.2
(EODMU6)
EOD
Counter IED and underwater clearance operations
60 (act)
J04MU6(-)
CTG 956.3
(NMCB1)
(CBMU202)
(UCT 1)
Vert & Horz Const
Civil military operations support; water well, MSR maint, host nation public infrastructure, camp maintenance/support, underwater construction
29 (act)
122 (not)
P25(-)
Water Well
P25FIE(-)
CTG 956.4
(NMCB5)
Civil military operations support; water well, MSR maint, host nation public infrastructure
3 (act)
125 (not)
Com Air/Bogue
CTG 956.5
(NCHB11)
Port Ops
Support APOD and SPOD operations ISO CTF 956.
10 (act)
54 (not)
F01(-)
CTG 956.6
(CRS-4)
Port Sec
Provide security, interdiction, point defense of critical assets.
640 (act)
Port Sec Package
Line Haul/MHB
2626
UNCLASSIFIED

27. Specified Tasks
Specified 1: Establish NEF MOC & FOB w/ Security at Bogue, Amberland & establish comms with CFMCC, USEASTCOM
Implied 1.1: Deploy to NAVEAST AOR
Implied 1.2: Coordinate with NAVEAST N6
Implied 1.3: Coordinate with Interagency and Amberland
Implied 1.4: Coordinate with subordinate units for embark/movement
Implied 1.5: Establish C2 of assigned forces
Specified 2: Establish FOB w/ Security at MHB, Amberland for Expeditionary SPOD Ops
Implied 2.1: Deploy to NAVEAST AOR
Implied 2.2: Coordinate with NAVEAST N6
Implied 2.3: Coordinate with Interagency and Amberland
Implied 2.4: Coordinate with subordinate units for embark/movement
Implied 2.5: Establish C2 of assigned forces

28. Specified Tasks
Specified 3: Provide daily report/update to this HQ all military actions or movement of NEF forces inside Amberland
Implied 3.1: Establish NEF Battle rhythm IAW with CFMCC Battle rhythm
Implied 3.2: Establish and maintain Common Operating Picture
Implied 3.3: Establish and maintain Force Structure equipment status
Specified 4: NLT 10 Aug, coordinate w/ officials & conduct assessment to repair and maintain roadway along route Green. Construction should begin NLT 25 Aug with anticipated completion by 1 Dec
Implied 4.1: Establish and maintain security IAW FPCON
Implied 4.2: Track status of operations and report to HHQ
Implied 4.3: Coordinate with interagency and Amberland
Implied 4.4: Establish and maintain appropriate Information Operations IAW CFMCC
Implied 4.5: Provide financial service support for procurement of construction materials and contracting services as required

29. Specified Tasks
Specified 5: O/A 21 Aug, conduct expeditionary port ops at MHC, Amberland for offload of humanitarian supplies from MSC and international shipping and delivery to HN. Upon completion, approx 25 Aug, turnover port operations to Host Nation. Port Operations Include: Escort of U.S. Vessels; Pier Vetting; Cargo handling off U.S. Vessels; Landward and seaward security; other tasks as required to ensure the safe transit, arrival, offload and delivery to HN of Humanitarian supplies.
Implied 5.1: Establish TOC IVO MHC
Implied 5.2: Establish areas of operations from Sea buoy to MHC terminal gate
Implied 5.3: Coordinate with interagency and HN
Implied 5.4: Provide security for humanitarian supplies while under NEF control
Implied 5.5: Perform hydrographic U/W survey to ensure safe passage of HVA IVO MHC

30. Specified Tasks
Specified 6: NLT 15 OCT make coordination with appropriate officials and conduct assessment to renovate school.
Implied 6.1: Establish and maintain security IAW FPCON
Implied 6.2: Coordinate with interagency and HN
Implied 6.3: Establish and maintain appropriate Information Operations IAW CFMCC
Specified 7: NLT 26 Oct begin construction of a water well.
Implied 7.1: Establish and maintain security IAW FPCON
Implied 7.2: Track status of operations and report to HHQ
Implied 7.3: Coordinate with interagency and HN
Implied 7.4: Establish and maintain appropriate Information Operations IAW CFMCC
Implied 7.5: Perform water testing to certify water purification
Specified 8: NLT 15 Aug conduct ISR operations along the intercoastal waterway from Mile Hammock Bay to Morehead City, Amberland.
Implied 8.1: Coordinate with AFEAST/CFACC as functional component commander for air and space operations

31. Specified Tasks
Specified 9: O/A conduct other maritime security operations tasks.
Implied 9.1: Coordinate with Composite Warfare Commander (when required)
Specified 10: BPT conduct C-IED throughout Amberland.
Implied 10.1: Maintain C-IED Operations Picture
Implied 10.2: Coordinate with interagency and HN
Implied 10.3: Establish and maintain security IAW FPCON
Implied 10.4: Perform C-IED Biometric and exploitation ISO HN C-IED efforts
Specified 11: BPT conduct Non-combatant evacuation operations.
Implied 11.2: Coordinate with interagency and HN
Implied 11.3: Establish and maintain security IAW FPCON
Specified 12: BPT conduct Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (FHA) operations.
Implied 12.2: Coordinate with interagency and HN
Implied 12.3: Establish and maintain security IAW FPCON

32. Specified Tasks
Specified 13: BPT to conduct reception, staging, onward movement and integration (RSOI) of follow-on U.S. and Coalition forces.
Implied 13.1: Maintain APOD and SPOD
Implied 13.2: Maintain and track TPFDD of U.S. and coalition forces
Implied 13.3: Coordinate with CTF 953
Specified 14: Provide CONOPS to CFMCC NLT 25 July 14
Implied 10.1: Complete Mission Analysis and COA development
Specified 15: Provide interim proposed public affairs guidance (PPAG) via separate message to OASD (PA)
Implied 15.1: Coordinate with CFMCC PAO
Specified 16: Implement, adjust and report accordingly force protection measures appropriate to anticipate terrorist threat
Implied 16.1: Maintain intelligence picture

33. Specified Tasks
Specified 17: Determine pre-deployment and theater force protection training requirements.
Implied 17.1: Coordinate with CFMCC AT/FP officer
Specified 18: Collect on, assess, and refine priority intelligence requirements as the intelligence picture of the operation environment dictates.
Implied 18.1: Maintain Intelligence picture.
Specified 19: Identify and assess emergent threats to EASTCOM and host nation forces
Implied 19.1: Maintain Intelligence picture.
Specified 20: CFMCC conducts theater security cooperation (TSC) operations in Amberland and its territorial waters to establish local security, restore infrastructure and support UNSCRS in order to increase host nation capacity, capabilities and regional stability.

34. Operational Limitations
Restraint/Constraint
Implication
Construction equipment in theater is limited to initial lift. Due to the expected duration of the operations, requests for additional assets will likely not be approved. (R)
Any change of project scope will change completion time and limited capacity to support additional requirements
Repair parts and construction equipment limited to U.S. Equipment only (R)
Can not give repair parts or equipment to HN during Mil-to-Mil engagement
CFMCC TSC operations will be executed within the recognized borders of Amberland to include sea accesses.
Operations within Amberland only

35. Facts
PHARM operates in major urban areas within Amberland with cells located throughout the treasure coast.
Garnet is supporting the PHARM in planning, logistics and recruiting/training new members to initiate an offensive campaign to destabilize the Amber and Amberland Governments.
The PHARM are known to conduct small scale attacks against Army, Police, Government officials and infrastructure to erode popular support of the government.
The PHARM also conducts piracy attacks and armed robbery within the territorial waters of Amberland and use the inland waters to transport and hide weapons further exacerbating the threat to international peace and security in the TCR.
CFMCC theater security cooperation operations will be executed within the recognized borders of Amberland to include sea accesses.
Amberland has contracted a local firm to provide outer security at Bogue Airfield and Mile Hammock Bay. The two bases don’t have dedicated military security. Contract is good for deployment duration. RSO from US Embassy highly recommends active US security posture at and around US equipment and personnel. Current FP condition is Charlie (FPCON-C).

36. Facts
7. Amberland has contracted to provide the materials for the road project and the school renovation. They have assigned government representatives to coordinate delivery and resupply of materials.
8. No mil to mil engagements have been approved by the US Embassy. All requests should be forwarded to CFMCC coordinated through the US Embassy RSO. US Forces will have civilian engagements along the intercoastal waterway and during port and airfield operations.

37. Assumptions Assumption Supporting Info Requirement
1. HN will continue to provide security to their bases and major infrastructures (MHB, MHC, Bogue Field)
Will HN continue security to their bases and major infrastructures
2. HN will provide limited support Services i.e. fuel, water, food, berthing at (MHB, MHC, Bogue Field)
What support services will HN provide to NEF
3. HN has construction materials available to support NEF Phase 0 projects
What construction materials are available to support NEF projects
4. HN has limited equipment and trained personnel for mil-to-mil engagements for construction projects
What HN units will support Mil-to-Mil engagement for construction projects and what are their capacity and capability
5. HN has limited port facility equipment
What port facility equipment does the HN provided at MHC and MHB

38. Assumptions
6. HN has limited C-IED capabilities and equipment to support Mil-to-Mil engagements
What HN units will support Mil-to-Mil engagement for C-IED and what are their capacity and capability
7. Intelligence assets will be made available to NEF in order to maintain intel picture and identify emerging threats
What intelligence assets are available from CFMCC
8. HN will provide security for NEF personnel movements
Which units will provide NEF security during Mil-to-Mil events
9. HN will provide dedicated security to NEF
Will HN provide dedicated security to NEF for movement outside established FOB

39. Assumptions Assumption Supporting Info Requirement
10. Terrorist groups will adapt/change TTPs based on increased U.S. and Coalition footprint in Amberland
Will terrorist groups adapt/change TTPs based on increased U.S. and Coalition footprint in Amberland
11. Friendly forces have operated in Amberland
What Friendly forces have been operating in Amberland for the last 6 months
12. The HN and majority of civilian populace within our Area of Influence will support U.S and Coalition increased footprint in Amberland
What is the U.S. Embassy assessment of increased U.S. and Coalition footprint in Amberland

40. Assumptions Assumption Supporting Info Requirement
13. Terrorist groups will attack “soft” targets of opportunity along LOCs or SLOCs.
Has there been any attacks against “soft” targets (NGOs) IVO Bogue, MHC, MHB

41. Requests for Information (RFI)
Info Requested
Response
1. Will HN continue security to their bases and major infrastructures
2. What support services will HN provide to NEF
3. What construction materials are available to support NEF projects
4. What HN units will support Mil-to-Mil engagement for construction projects and what are their capacity and capability
5. What port facility equipment does the HN provided at MHC and MHB
6. What HN units will support Mil-to-Mil engagement for C-IED and what are their capacity and capability

42. Requests for Information (RFI)
Info Requested
Response
7. What intelligence assets are available from CFMCC
8. Which units will provide NEF security during Mil-to-Mil events
9. Will HN provide dedicated security to NEF for movement outside established FOB
10. Will PHARM adapt/change TTPs based on increased U.S. and Coalition footprint in Amberland
11. What Friendly forces have been operating in Amberland for the last 6 months
12. What is the U.S. Embassy assessment of increased U.S. and Coalition footprint in Amberland
13. Has there been any attacks against “soft” targets (NGOs) IVO Bogue, MHC, MHB

43. Proposed Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (CCIRs)
1. PIR-An Increase of local population support to terrorist groups
2. PIR-Emerging trends in implementing IEDs
3. PIR-Terrorist activity interfering with operations in the NEF AO
4. PIR-Terrorist activity targeting NEF personnel
5. PIR-Movement of terrorist personnel and equipment
6. FFIR-Change to LAD
7. FFIR-Change to ROE
8. FFIR-Change to Host Nation Support
9. FFIR- Inability of units to start/complete task as directed

44. RISK CONTROLS & MITIGATION
Risk to Mission
HAZARD/THREAT
ASSESSED RAC
RISK CONTROLS & MITIGATION
REVISED RAC
SUPERVISION
Withdraw of Host Nation Support
D, I = 3
D, II = 4
Asymmetric attack
B, I = 1 ?
B, II = 2
Inclement weather
B, III = 3
B, IV = 4
Civil Unrest
C, II = 3
C, III = 4
Change in TTPs of enemy forces
A, I = 1
A, II = 1 I II
III IV 1 2 3 4 5 A B C D
Probability
Severity
RAC
1 – CRITICAL
2 – SERIOUS
3 – MODERATE
4 – MINOR
5 - NEGLIGIBLE
A: Likely to occur immediately or within a short period of time
B: Probably will occur
C: May occur in time
D: Unlikely to occur
Probability
I: May cause death, loss of facility/asset, mission failure
II: May cause severe injury, illness, property damage, mission degradation
III: May cause minor injury, illness, property damage, mission degradation
IV: Minimal Threat, no impact to mission success
Severity

45. RISK CONTROLS & MITIGATION
Risk to Forces
HAZARD/THREAT
ASSESSED RAC
RISK CONTROLS & MITIGATION
REVISED RAC
SUPERVISION
Medicinal threat
C, III = 4
D, IV = 5
Inclement weather
B, III = 3
Civil Unrest
C, II = 3
Change in TTPs of enemy forces
A, I = 1
A, II = 1 I II
III IV 1 2 3 4 5 A B C D
Probability
Severity
RAC
1 – CRITICAL
2 – SERIOUS
3 – MODERATE
4 – MINOR
5 - NEGLIGIBLE
A: Likely to occur immediately or within a short period of time
B: Probably will occur
C: May occur in time
D: Unlikely to occur
Probability
I: May cause death, loss of facility/asset, mission failure
II: May cause severe injury, illness, property damage, mission degradation
III: May cause minor injury, illness, property damage, mission degradation
IV: Minimal Threat, no impact to mission success
Severity

46. CTF 956 Proposed Mission Statement
O/A 1 Aug 2014, Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group TWO (FWD) deploy as CTF 956 (NEF Commander) and establish a secure Maritime Operations Center (MOC) and Forward Operating Base (FOB) at Bogue and Mile Hammock Bay. CTF 956 will conduct theatre security cooperation operations in Amberland and its territorial waters to establish local security, restore infrastructure, and support UNSCRs in order to increase Host Nation capacity, capabilities and regional stability. CTF 956 will be prepared to conduct humanitarian assistance, non-combatant evacuation operations and reception, staging, onward-movement and integration (RSO&I) for follow on U.S. and Coalition forces

47. CTF 956 Proposed Commander’s Intent
Purpose: Strengthen existing relations with Amberland and reduce popular support for radical ideology. Reinforce the legitimacy of the Ambertine government in the eyes of the people in order to increase host nation capacity, capabilities and regional stability, and demonstrate coalition resolve against PHARM and Garnet aggression.

48. CTF 956 Proposed Commander’s Intent
Method: I intend to accomplish our mission by leveraging the full spectrum of CTF 956 theatre security cooperation and humanitarian assistance capability. The NEF TSC program provides a visible but not aggressive U.S. influence in treasure coast. The TSC program includes but is not limited to the following tasks:
critical maritime infrastructure security to include landward and seaward port and harbor security and high value asset escort;
C-IED operations;
cargo handling from both expeditionary and functioning ports;
maritime security operations with coastal and riverine boats;
infrastructure construction to include horizontal and vertical construction.
We will partner with our host nation counterparts at all levels during the planning process and give them the lead during the execution phase of all initiatives, projects, training, and operations of their government’s relationship with the world community. Demonstrate coalition support for Amberland authority while improving key infrastructure in the nation. We need to protect ourselves from terrorist activities that will pressure us to leave or otherwise degrade our relationship with the legitimate governments.

49. CTF 956 Proposed Commander’s Intent
Endstate: Increased local Ambertine capacity and capability to provide security and infrastructure support to their nation.

50. Initial Staff Estimates
N-1- Manning
Facts/Current Status: Lack of C2PC operators and air planners, lack of religious service
Issues: Manning shortfalls, No religious service available during BA
Conclusions/Recommendations: Submit augmentation message to USFF ISO BA14 augmentation. Offer ex-scenario event on Sunday to perform religious services at CL
N-2- Intelligence
Facts/Current Status: Garnet provides supplies, arms, ammunition to Lovisa Clan; Anti-Government demonstrations throughout Amberland; Ji’Stern Militia supporting PHARM (rearm-refit); PHARM employing explosive devices.
Issues/Requirements: ICOP not fully operational; Need NEF collection plan.
Conclusions/Recommendations: None.

51. Initial Staff Estimates
N-3- Operations
Facts/Current Status: Developing Phase 0 CONOPS, Movement plan
Issues: NMCB task and location
Conclusions/Recommendations: Work with CFMCC on determining actual location of task. MSR IVO Jacksonville, XZ
N-4- Sustainment
Facts/Current Status: Services support requires confirmation from MAW and MARHQ. Access to Class 8 will be minimal, requires reach back to HQ.
Issues: Class 1 sourcing (MARHQ)
Conclusions/Recommendations: Solidify support from Marine HQ to NEF for Class 1, 3, and support services.

52. Initial Staff Estimates
N6- Communications Architecture and Status
Facts/Current Status: operational status of communications circuits and command, control, communications, computers & intelligence (C4I) systems; bandwidth allocation; communications paths for various C2 functions; planned outages and degradations
Issues: Shortfalls, show-stoppers, and major concerns
Conclusions/Recommendations: Projected C4I systems and communications status during operations, impact of loss or degradation of C4I systems or communications
PAO-
Facts/Current Status: Manning reduction, cultural preparedness, morale.
Issues: Loss of connectivity, greater embed demand than can be accommodated, equipment failures/shortages
Conclusions/Recommendations: Ensure higher echelon support, redundancy in equipment/connectivity where possible

53. 4/15/2017
Commander’s Comments
5353
UNCLASSIFIED