1. Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

2. Outline Overview of IWFM and BUET Overview of IWFM and BUET Vulnerabilities and natural hazards in Bangladesh Vulnerabilities and natural hazards in Bangladesh Problems to assess future Hazards and Risks of Bangladesh Problems to assess future Hazards and Risks of Bangladesh Requirements of Climate Change Scenarios Requirements of Climate Change Scenarios

3. Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) BUET has been established in 1962. BUET has been established in 1962. Yearly intake Undergraduate is 900 and Masters and PhD programs is 1000. About 5,500 students are pursuing undergraduate and postgraduate studies in Engineering, Architecture, Planning and Science. Yearly intake Undergraduate is 900 and Masters and PhD programs is 1000. About 5,500 students are pursuing undergraduate and postgraduate studies in Engineering, Architecture, Planning and Science. 500 Teachers in 16 Teaching Departments under 5 Faculties and 3 Institutes. 500 Teachers in 16 Teaching Departments under 5 Faculties and 3 Institutes.

4. http://www.buet.ac.bd/

5. Institute of Water and Flood Management Established in 1947 to pursues research and capacity development in the field of water and flood management. Established in 1947 to pursues research and capacity development in the field of water and flood management. 16 Full time Faculty members specialized in water and environment. 16 Full time Faculty members specialized in water and environment.

6. Academic Activities Offered Ph.D., M. Sc. and Post Graduate Diploma in Water Resources Development. Offered Ph.D., M. Sc. and Post Graduate Diploma in Water Resources Development. Conduct short courses. Conduct short courses. Publish Research Bulletin. Publish Research Bulletin. Organize International conference ICWFM 2009 Organize International conference ICWFM 2009

7. Research… Development of a Water Resources Model as a Decision Support Tool for National Water Management. Development of a Water Resources Model as a Decision Support Tool for National Water Management. Improving Flood Forecasting of Bangladesh using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Remotely Sensed Rainfall Data. Improving Flood Forecasting of Bangladesh using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Remotely Sensed Rainfall Data. Water Impact Study of Atmospheric Brown Clouds. Water Impact Study of Atmospheric Brown Clouds. Risk-based Evaluation of Brahmaputra Water Development in meeting Future Water Demand. Risk-based Evaluation of Brahmaputra Water Development in meeting Future Water Demand. Impact of Climate and Sea Level Change in Part of Indian Sub-Continent. Impact of Climate and Sea Level Change in Part of Indian Sub-Continent.

8. Climate Change Study Cell IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008 IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008 The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh. The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh. Launching Ceremony On March 08, 2009 Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Mng.

9. http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/

10. Bangladesh: A south Asian Country

11. Topography of Bangladesh Bay of Bengal Himalays India Bangladesh

12. Natural Vulnerabilities of Bangladesh Floods Floods Cyclone Cyclone Droughts Droughts Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Salinity Salinity River Erosion River Erosion

13. Too much water during monsoon More Floods

14. Water shortage during dry periods More Drought EXISTING DROUGHT DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON) Very Severe Drought Severe Drought Moderate Drought Less Moderate Drought Slight Drought Very Slight to Nil Severe & Moderate Moderate & Less Moderate Sunderbans Forest ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030 ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2075

15. Cyclone Because of the funnel shaped coast of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh very often becomes the landing ground of cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal. Because of the funnel shaped coast of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh very often becomes the landing ground of cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal. Till today, a total of 174 severe cyclones (with wind speeds of more than 54 km/hr) formed in the Bay of Bengal. Till today, a total of 174 severe cyclones (with wind speeds of more than 54 km/hr) formed in the Bay of Bengal.

16. Recent Cyclone SIDR  Formed November 11, 2007  Enter to landNovember 15, 2007  DissipatedNovember 16, 2007  Highest winds 215 km/h (130 mph)  Lowest pressure944 hPa (mbar)  Fatalities ≥3,447  Damage $450 million (2007 USD)  Areas affected Bangladesh and WB, India

17. Recent Cyclone SIDR Satellite Image Some photographs after cyclone passed over the coast Sundarbans

18. Sea Level Rise

19. Summary of Climate Change induced disasters Increase of intensity and duration of floods, water logging, flash flood. Increase of intensity and duration of floods, water logging, flash flood. Increase of moisture stress (droughts) Increase of moisture stress (droughts) Intensified storm surge, wave heights, erratic precipitation Intensified storm surge, wave heights, erratic precipitation Salinity intrusion (100 km inside the country during dry season) Salinity intrusion (100 km inside the country during dry season) Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness, ecosystem degradation etc) Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness, ecosystem degradation etc) Sea Level rise up to 69 cm. Sea Level rise up to 69 cm.

20. Need for Future Risk Assessment General Circulation Model General Circulation Model Regional Circulation Model Regional Circulation Model Statistical Downscaling Statistical Downscaling Impact studies Impact studies

21. Steps of assessing impact of climate change

22. Regional Climate Change Modeling in Bangladesh PRECIS regional climate modeling developed by Hadley Center, UK is now running in Climate Change Study Cell at IWFM,BUET. PRECIS regional climate modeling developed by Hadley Center, UK is now running in Climate Change Study Cell at IWFM,BUET. Currently running baseline (1960-1990) and A1B (1949-2100) scenarios over the Bangladesh region. Currently running baseline (1960-1990) and A1B (1949-2100) scenarios over the Bangladesh region.

23. Bangladesh region for PRECIS Grids: 88 x 88 Grids: 88 x 88 Spatial Res. 25km Spatial Res. 25km Predict up to 3 hourly Predict up to 3 hourly Needs more than 100 GB free space. Needs more than 100 GB free space. Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3) Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3) Data available for A2, B2, A1B scenarios. Data available for A2, B2, A1B scenarios.

24. Predicting Rainfall [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario] 2030 2050

25. Predicting Maximum Temperature [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario] 2030 2050

26. Predicting Minimum Temperature [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario] 2030 2050

27. Climatic Condition of Bangladesh Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0 C per 100 years Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0 C per 100 years

28. Change of Temperature ( 0 C/year)

29. Impact on Agriculture Wheat and Boro coverage area of Bangladesh Wheat and Boro coverage area of Bangladesh

30. Need more realistic scenarios

31. Thank you