1. Case 2: Policy implications of sea level rise

2. Measuring tides Modern device similar. also measures wind speed and direction, water current speed and direction, air and water temperature, and barometric pressure.

3. Sea level data Monthly observations 1959-2008, 55 sites, 6 in WA

4. Global mean sea level Each point in the global mean sea level (GMSL) time series plots is the area-weighted mean of all of the sea surface height anomalies measured by the altimeter of the TOPEX A/B satellite in a single, 10-day satellite track repeat cycle (time for the satellite to begin repeating the same ground track).

5. Difference between gauges and satellite Land motion glacial rebound (millenial scale) tectonic activity (decadal scale) Altimeter drift orbital drift instrument drift

6. Where do the climate model values come from? Change in sea level height Cumulative change in temperature (slow response) Change in temperature (quick response)

7. Downscaling Find a statistical relationship between global sea level change and local sea level change Apply this relationship to global sea levels estimated from projected temperatures Uncertainties?

8. Projected sea level rise in Puget Sound Mote et al. (2008) Scenario2050 SLR2100 SLR Very low8 cm16 cm Medium15 cm34 cm Very high55 cm128 cm

9. Consequences for Olympia

10. Some thoughts Not only mean sea level that matters Even in the very low scenario, a combination of heavy rain, high tide, and storm surge can cause major damage Not everyone is convinced that the threat is real...but Dec 17, 2012, 5.4 m tide

11. The task Develop a set of policy options regarding sea level rise for the city of Olympia Produce supporting projections of sea level rise with estimates of uncertainty Present the results and some background material on a set of linked web pages aimed at the general public