1. Feb 20091 Travel Time and Sustainable Travel Behaviour David Metz Centre for Transport Studies University College London

2. Feb 20092 National Travel Survey 7-day travel diaries recording personal travel Annual sample of 20,000 Since 1972 Longest time series; high quality Excludes international air travel Measures ‘daily travel’

3. Feb 20093 Travel time, hours per person per year

4. Feb 20094 Distance & journeys per person per year

5. Feb 20095 Trips by age

6. Feb 20096 Trips (pppy) according to car ownership

7. Feb 20097 Trips (pppy) according to income

8. Feb 20098 Main journey purpose, trips pppy 20061985-86 shopping219210 visiting friends168191 commuting160178 education106109 personal business10597 other escort9774 all journeys10371034

9. Feb 20099 Travel spend (% of household spend)

10. Feb 200910 Business-as-usual scenario Travel time: an hour a day Journeys: 1000 a year Journey purposes: unchanged Spend: 16% of household spend Incomes: double over 30 years Technology: incremental improvement + decarbonisation Car ownership increase? Distance travelled?

11. Feb 200911 Personal mobility: miles pppy

12. Feb 200912 Delays for slowest 10% of journeys on Strategic Road Network

13. Feb 200913 Hypothesis: daily travel demand has saturated Access and choice increase with square of speed Value of additional choice characterised by diminishing marginal utility Prediction: sufficient choice experienced through mobility

14. Feb 200914 FIGURE 3.9 Proportion of the UK urban population with a choice of one, two, three or four grocery stores each with a different fascia and larger than 1,400 sq metres Source: CACI Limited analysis of parties’ data submissions – from Competition Commission: The supply of groceries in the UK market investigation report, May 2008.

15. Feb 200915 Choice of schools and hospitals Over 80% of pupils have at least 3 secondary schools within 5km of home Secondary schools have 6 others within 10min drive time 40% of population have up to 2 hospitals within 15min drive time; 90% within 60min

16. Feb 200916 Business-as-usual scenario (2) Stable behaviour in aggregate: –7100 miles –1000 trips –380 hours a year on average But road traffic continues to grow….

17. Feb 200917 Growth 1996-2006 Distance pppy (NTS) 0.2% pa Vehicle km 1.3% Cars 2.6% Population0.4% Traffic growth due mainly to increase in car ownership Distance per incremental car = ½ average

18. Feb 200918 Sustainable travel Stable personal travel – travel demand saturated. Some car ownership increase by ‘late adopters’, as car use approaches saturation. Some mode switch to cars. Decarbonise transport system. Manage congestion.

19. Feb 200919 Transport policy and operations Interventions which have the effect of increasing speed lead to increased access Interventions which have the effect of reducing speed tend to reduce access and choice ‘Smart choices’ tend to involve speed reduction Decarbonisation will need to rely mainly on technology

20. Feb 200920 Managing congestion Can’t build our way out of congestion Road pricing redistributes road space in favour of those who can afford to pay –Improved access for payers (induced traffic) –Reduced access and choice for non-payers –Likely to be unpopular Main problem is journey time uncertainty

21. Feb 200921 Conventional transport economics Main benefit is ‘travel time saving’ Underestimates ‘induced traffic’…. ….and carbon, accidents and other detriments Travel a ‘derived demand’ Agglomeration benefits Modelling assumes minimisation of ‘generalised costs’ Neglects behavioural economics

22. Feb 200922 References The Myth of Travel Time Saving, Transport Reviews 28(3),321-336, 2008 Responses to ‘Myth’ in November issue The Limits to Travel, Earthscan, 2008 www.limitstotravel.org.uk National road pricing: a critique and an alternative, Proc Inst Civil Eng: Transport 161(TR3), 167-174, 2008 Sustainable Travel Behaviour, UTSG January 2009 Papers from david.metz@transport.ucl.ac.uk