1. 2 October 2006 1 Navy – NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting Marie Colton National Ocean Service 2 October 2006

2. 2 Outline Goals and Objectives Purpose Issue Background Intersecting Issues Summary Recommendations

3. 2 October 2006 3 Overarching Goals and Objectives Goal: A global perspective on oceans and coasts through shared development and implementation of a national capability in operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting Objectives: –Coordination of internal, external, and interagency communications and agreements –Definition of NOAA and Navy ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting strategy –Identification of and action along Navy/NOAA intersections

4. 2 October 2006 4 Purpose Explicit definition of Navy and NOAA commitments for partnership in community modeling and forecasting Status of activities to identify actions and intersections –Agency and joint strategies and way forward –Solicit direct agency feedback to ensure continuity of effort and visibility NOAA: AA’s of cognizant offices Navy: CNO/CNMOC (McGee), Oceanographer, SPAWAR, CNR: ONR, NRL

5. 2 October 2006 5 Issue Ocean/Coastal Community Modeling Requirements Definition: Navy/NOAA –Missions remain separate –Requirement Overlaps identified for effectiveness –Common approaches developed Articulate and align capabilities to increase technical support for Navy and NOAA ocean/coastal forecasting –Develop system of consistent compatible ocean models that pass information and scale from global to regional to very local –Specific projects to quickly advance cooperation and coordination process

6. 2 October 2006 6 Issue Who is involved –4 NOAA Line Offices (NESDIS, NOS, NWS/NCEP, OAR) –5 Navy Offices (CNMOC, FNMOC, NAVO, ONR, NRL) What is involved –Ocean Modeling Action Plan (NOAA SAB) –Tri-Agency Atmospheric Modeling Partnership (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) –IOOS Development Plan –Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014) –NOAA Environmental Modeling Program

7. 2 October 2006 7 Background Navy AMOP Meetings –September 2005 (Naval Observatory), February 2006 (Pearl Harbor), September 2006 (Stennis Space Center) March 29, 2006: Joint Planning Session, NOAA Headquarters, Silver Spring June 13-14, 2006: Joint Workshop, Stennis Space Center

8. 2 October 2006 8 Intersecting Issue #1: Operational Ocean Modeling and Forecasting Key Activities Data availability, access, and distribution Concept of operations (CONOPS) Shared development environment Shared products and services Key Approaches Demonstration project: align satellite altimetry observing requirements Portal for ocean modeling outputs (NCDC) Operational backup and data assimilation Earth System Modeling Framework

9. 2 October 2006 9 Developing NOAA Strategy Space Time Phenomena of Interest Space Time Observing Systems Observations & OSSE IOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA Data Assimilation & OSE NESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast Guidance NOS, NWS Ops Products and Services Research Operations Giant Bluefin Tuna HAB Bulletin ENSO Update

10. Satellite In situ OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION MODEL ATTRIBUTES: Global to Regional Scale MODEL ATTRIBUTES: Global to Regional Scale OPERATIONAL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System Shared history, coding, and data processing OBSERVATIONS CLIMATE FORECASTOCEAN FORECAST http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/ Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System COASTAL OCEAN BOUNDARY SPECIFICATION MODEL ATTRIBUTES: Regional to Local Scale Rapidly Relocatable http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

11. 2 October 2006 11 Intersecting Issue #2: Ocean Model and Forecast Development Key Activities Standardization of models Data assimilation Shared development environment Model validation and evaluation Key Approaches Model characterization: HYCOM, ADCIRC, ROMS, WW3, SWAN, Tides, PC Tides Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Model test beds and performance metrics User/developer groups

12. 2 October 2006 12 Intersecting Issue #3: Technologies and Standards Key Activities Source code Standard tools and utilities Standard inputs Standard outputs Key Approaches Common configuration management Software and information technologies Databases Static inputs and forcing functions Data exchange formats ESMF

13. 2 October 2006 13 Intersecting Issue #4: Transition Methodology Key Activities Recommend metrics for common validation and intercomparison of models Transition plans: development to operations Coordinate system development and transition Key Approaches Follow-on workshops Mapping across Navy and NOAA transition plans –NOAA Transition Board –Navy Rapid Transition Process Technical readiness levels

14. 2 October 2006 14 Define Current Infrastructure for Common Modeling and Forecasting HardwareSoftwareConfig. Management NOAA Capabilities Navy Capabilities Programs HYCOMWorking group ADCIRCWorking group WW3Working group (Planned) GFDL Models

15. 2 October 2006 15 Intersecting Issue #5: Coordination and Program Ensure chains of command are informed and continue to support the process Maintain a steady flow of results and adjust coordination accordingly Agreements for shared products or services or proposed joint efforts

16. 2 October 2006 16 Recommendations Internal: Establish NOAA Administrative Ocean/Coastal Modeling Oversight Panel –Dialogue on ocean model/forecast requirements –Resource support for ocean modeling working groups –Coordination among appropriate NOAA goals and programs –Oversight on end-to-end ocean/coastal forecasting systems Joint: Articulate and align Navy and NOAA requirements and approaches –Complete individual and joint Navy-NOAA ocean/coastal forecasting CONOPS –Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3, ROM) –Data Assimilation (expand JCSDA to include ocean/coastal activities) –Development of technical approaches to common issues –Joint high-level meeting for agency direction to ensure continuity of effort and visibility –Formalize NOAA and Navy ocean forecasting activities (annexes to MOA, Tri-Agency) –Develop communications plan for joint statement on Navy-NOAA community ocean modeling effort External: Integrate with external partner strategies –Provide guidance to IOOS Modeling and Analysis Steering Team, sponsor community modeling workshops –Ocean Research Priorities Plan –ESMF

17. 2 October 2006 17 Alternative #1 Ad hoc coordination with NOAA “matrix” and Navy Pros –No funds needed –No obligations necessary (flexible) Cons –Doesn’t meet urgency of need for operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting –Proliferation of options to solve problems independently –Technical issues not solved efficiently –One NOAA common voice not heard –No clear message to external community –Cannot guarantee commitments or quality

18. 2 October 2006 18 Alternative #2 Formalized NOAA AMOP to work with Navy AMOP to address technical issues –Ocean Model development, characterization, standards –Ocean Observations and assimilation; OSSE, OSE –Data distribution and analysis –Products and services –IT coordination (hardware and software) Pros –Completes NOAA end-to-end parallel mechanism for discussing ocean and coastal forecasting requirements, CONOPS, approval of research to operations, and technical execution –Establishes clear mechanism for negotiating ocean community modeling commitments with external partners, including Navy –Ability to fund, schedule, and execute implementation activities Cons –May be construed as another governance committee, but must be characterized as an implementation body

19. 2 October 2006 19 Summary Navy/NOAA working together to establish common ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting frameworks for future success Building on mutual and unique strengths in operational oceanography and coastal services through examination of existing efforts Providing harmonized environmental models for external communities to focus on and provide physical basis for ecological forecasting

20. 2 October 2006 20 Extended Discussion Communications NOAA Strategy Integration

21. 2 October 2006 21 Communications: Developing Synergies Within and Outside NOAA Global  Local physical ocean modeling –Coordinate with Navy research and operations (CNMOC/FNMOC/NAVO, NRL, ONR) –Via NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Program (???) Advancing ecosystem modeling and forecasting –Alignment of NOAA research and operations (NESDIS STAR; NMFS; NOS CO-OPS, CSDL, NCCOS; NWS NCEP; OAR) Engaging the external modeling community –IOOS Modeling Caucus and Modeling & Analysis Steering Team (MAST) –JSOST Ocean Research Priorities Plan – Forecasting subtopic National governance –Development of Tri-Agency NUOPC

22. 2 October 2006 22 Developing NOAA Strategy Starting from existing capabilities –Physical models Considering user requirements Coordinating activity in support of NOAA Environmental Modeling Program –Regional approach to management –Ecosystem forecasting alternative (Ecosystem Goal) –Next-generation integrated basin-scale operational ocean modeling system Interface to ecosystem modeling and forecasting efforts

23. Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT) In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships) OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP EMC CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO) OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast SystemReal-Time Ocean Forecast System Data Cutoff CFS: 2 week data cutoffRTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff Shared history, coding, and data processing MOM-3  MOM-4  GUOM HYCOM  GUOM OBSERVATIONS CLIMATE FORECASTOCEAN FORECAST http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/ Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System Coastal Ocean Boundary Specification ODAAS NOS/CSDL/CO-OPS NWS/EMC/NCO http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html In situ (ARGO, Buoys, C-Man, NWLON, River Gage) Satellite (Altimetry, SST) Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

24. 2 October 2006 24 Current Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting Mostly physics modeling and data assimilation Working towards integrating ecological modeling Downscaling from global to regional to local models Need to promote existing operations within and outside of NOAA

25. 2 October 2006 25 Developing NOAA Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting Strategy: Ecosystems Modeling Starting from existing capabilities –NOS Modeling Prioritization Project Considering user requirements Coordinating activity in support of NOAA Ecosystem Goal Team –Regional approach to management –Ecosystem forecasting alternative Connections to Navy ecosystem modeling needs –Water quality, ocean optics, rivers and estuaries, marine mammals Seamless suite of products and services

27. NOAA Coordination FORECAST TIME FRAME REAL TIME DAYS MONTHS YEARS USER GROUPS TRANSPORTATIONCOASTAL HAZARDSWATER QUALITY & HUMAN HEALTH COASTAL HABITATS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Toxicity Flood forecasts Oil weathering Geomorphology Risks/exposure Ocean color/primary production Invasive species suscept. Larval trans./MPA design Climate effects/food web Storm surge Shellfish bed closures Decision support tools Population dynamics Socioeconomic modelsSocio-economic models Restoration Geomorphology Levels, currents, S & T Spill planning Resource harvest Disease transmission Hypoxic zone formation Recovery curves HABs (formation, upwelling, regional monitoring & prediction) Particle trajectory (pollution, invasive species, HAB, sediment, multimedia/multipath sources) Biological/physical coupling Ecosystems (SLR, multiple stressors, hypoxia, change) Climate effects/water level Draft NOAA Ecosystem Modeling and Forecast Products (Operational, In Development, and Needs)

28. 2 October 2006 28 Recommendations Complete NOAA, Navy, and joint CONOPS for operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting –Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3, ROM) Coordinate among appropriate NOAA goals and programs Specify continued NOAA-wide involvement –Resource support for working groups –Recognition of and dialogue on requirements Clarify IOOS roles and responsibilities in community modeling development (Modeling and Analysis Steering Team) –Resource support for community modeling workshops Formalize NOAA and Navy governance in ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting –Technical cooperation via annexes to MOU –Programmatic coordination via Tri-Agency NUOPC and other means –Develop communications plan

29. 2 October 2006 29 Schedule of Significant Events and Milestones

30. 2 October 2006 30 Additional and Expanded Slides

31. 2 October 2006 31 Background Navy AMOP Meetings: September 2005 (Naval Observatory) and February 2006 (Pearl Harbor) March 29, 2006: Joint Planning Session, NOAA Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD –Purpose: Develop a plan of action and milestones for short-term joint activities –Outcomes: Identified two important questions, “how will we coordinate?” and “what are the details of the models?” June 13-14, 2006: Joint Workshop, Stennis Space Center, MS –Purpose: Answer “how will we coordinate?” question –Outcomes: Identified four “issue areas” for further cooperation and coordination Relevant Statements, Policies, and Opinions –Ocean Action Modeling Plan (NOAA SAB) –Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014) –Tri-Agency Agreement (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) –IOOS Development Plan

32. 2 October 2006 32 Technical Issue #1: Operational Ocean Modeling Data availability, access, and distribution –Coordinated satellite altimetry requirements –Common portal for static and time-dependent boundary data bases –Common portal for archive of model output products –Announce availability of lateral boundary conditions supporting regional and coastal models –Shared processing requirements Concept of operations (CONOPS) –Operational backup of existing operational ocean modeling and data assimilation Shared development environment –Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational modeling systems Shared products and services –Definition of requirements (geographic and temporal scales)

33. 2 October 2006 33 Technical Issue #2: Ocean Model Development Standardization of models –Endorse existing developer/user groups for HYCOM and ADCIRC –Encourage new developer/user group for wave modeling (WW3, SWAN) –ROM and POM? Data assimilation –Promote Navy & NOS ocean representation on JCSDA Management Oversight Board Shared development environment –Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational modeling systems Model validation and evaluation –Process for joint review and recommendation of products for future coordinated development –Announce intention to coordinate development of ocean and coastal models –Creation of model test beds and evaluation metrics

34. 2 October 2006 34 Technical Issue #3: Technologies and Standards Source code –Encourage coordination and further development of ESMF core software –Common configuration management approach Standard tools and utilities –Workshop to review and recommend common supporting software and technologies Standard inputs –Static and time-dependent boundary data bases –Capability for access to common atmospheric forcing Standard outputs –Workshop to review and recommend standardized data exchange formats and standards

35. Fronts, Eddies, & Filaments Plankton Migration Phenomena of Interest 1 sec 1 wk 1 day 1 mo 1 yr 10 yr 100 yr 10 -3 m10 -2 m10 -1 m10 0 m10 1 m10 2 m10 3 m10 4 m10 5 m10 6 m10 7 m Molecular Processes 1 min Individual Movement 1 hr Turbulent Patch Size Surface Waves Langmuir Cells Inertial/Internal & Solitary Waves Internal Tides Surface Tides Phytoplankton Blooms Synoptic Storms, River Outflows, & Sediment Resuspension Mesoscale phenomena Coastally trapped waves Seasonal MLD & Biomass Cycles ENSO Decadal Oscillations/ Fish Regime Shifts Climate Spatial Scale Temporal Scale Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems 40-41: 5-48.

36. Observing Systems 10 -3 m10 -2 m10 -1 m10 0 m10 1 m10 2 m10 3 m10 4 m10 5 m10 6 m10 7 m Spatial Scale 1 sec 1 wk 1 day 1 mo 1 yr 10 yr 100 yr 1 min 1 hr Temporal Scale Moorings, Bottom Tripods, and Shore-based and Offshore-based Platforms AUVs HF Radar Satellites Planes Drifters, Floaters, Gliders Submarine & Ship Mapping Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems 40-41: 5-48.

38. 2 October 2006 38 High Resolution Coastal Domains (Demonstrates interface between Shelf and Coastal models)

39. 2 October 2006 39 In Development Operational Coastal Models Observations: Long and short range radar, SAR, SeaWIFS, Lidar (already using altimetry, SST, and in situ obs – C-Man, NWLON, river gages) Data Assimilation: CTDs, SST, Altimetry, Fronts, Surface radars

40. 2 October 2006 40 NOAA Coordination Generalized Research to Operations Plan for Modeling in NOAA Gauge user needs Overview current modeling capabilities Identify gaps between user needs and current capabilities Identify modeling and other strategies to address gaps Conceptualize modeling approaches and standards Begin research and gather data for model(s) Develop prototype model(s) Testing and transition to operational Operational within Line Office Operational in broader context MPP Contributions