1. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.1 Risk Assessment for the Wadden Sea Pilot study Ribe Dike Progress report of sub-project SP7 Workshop 12 - 13 May 2004, Norden, Germany

2. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.2 Contents Location of pilot study area (by T. Piontkowitz) Approach (by T. Piontkowitz) Failure probability of the Ribe sea defence (by A. Kortenhaus) Vulnerability analysis (by T. Piontkowitz) Questions & discussion

3. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.3 Location of pilot study area Ribe Dike length ca. 18,4 km protected area 6.826 ha year of construction 1911-1914 1. reinforcement 1924-1925 2. reinforcement (flattening of outer slope) 1978-1980 2 sluices (Ribe Å and Konge Å) and 2 smaller outlets

4. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.4 Cross-sections and topography River, stream Wetland Lake Ribe Dike Profile + stationing no. Sluice Salt marsh edge under 0 0,0 - 0,5 m 0,5 - 1,0 m 1,0 - 1,5 m 1,5 - 2,0 m 2,0 - 2,5 m 2,5 - 3,0 m 3,0 - 3,5 m 3,5 - 4,0 m 4,0 - 4,5 m 4,5 - 5,0 m over 5 m (DVR90) selected from a number of existing cross-sections (former surveys) 4 cross-sections north of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 250°), 2 cross-sections south of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 290°)

5. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.5 Approach Risk assessment divided into three parts Part 2 Vulnerability analysis based on ProDeich model (cooperation with LWI) 6 cross-sections include valuation analysis and damage analysis data collection by DCA damage models in cooperation with consultants results: (i) spatial use and material assets over elevation (ii) definition of damage models Part 3 Dike breach scenarios and inundation simulation definition of dike breach scenarios inundation simulation Part 1 Failure probability of Ribe dike Risk of Ribe sea defence and its hinterland

6. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.6

7. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.7 Valued Direct Tangible Damage Buildings Electronic installation Pumps High voltage line Economic sector Crop Stock Movable property Household Movable property Infrastructure Roads Railway Not Valued Direct Intangible Damage Number of population Night and day population Vehicles (are normally removed during evacuation) Tourism (tourist on the spot, number of beds) Vulnerability analysis - risk elements

8. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.8 BBR-registry: Local registry Containing 128 columns Land registry Registry of town and country planning Registry of valuation for rating Meadow of different crops Registry of real estate Registry of livestock population OIS-registry: Public information registry ESR-registry: SVUR-registry: PLAN-registry: MATR-registry: CHR-registry: Crop: Vulnerability analysis – data sources

9. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.9 Topography Salt marsh edge under 0 m DVR90 0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90 0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90 1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90 1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90 2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90 2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90 3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90 3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90 4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90 4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90 over 5 m DVR90

10. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.10 Fresh water discharge Stream Wetland Lake Ribe Dike Profile Lock Salt marsh edge under 0 m DVR90 0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90 0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90 1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90 1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90 2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90 2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90 3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90 3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90 4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90 4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90 over 5 m DVR90

11. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.11 Building Town centre Greenhouse High settlement Industry Cemetery Low settlement Ribe Dike Salt marsh edge under 0 m DVR90 0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90 0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90 1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90 1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90 2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90 2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90 3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90 3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90 4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90 4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90 over 5 m DVR90 Settlement

12. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.12 Infrastructure Ribe Dike Tele pylon Pumps Windmill High-voltage line Second road Road over 6 m Road 3-6 m Path Expressway Railway track Technical area Area

13. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.13 Land use Salt marsh edge Town centre Cemetery Industry Greenhouse High settlement Low settlement Building Ribe Dike Windmill Tele pylon Pumps Roads Technical area Stream Lake Water area Recreation Sports park Moor Trees Wood/Park Farm Land

14. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.14 Crop distribution Salt marsh edge Another winter grain Spring grain Arable pasture grass Permanent grassland Set a-side Forest Winter wheat Non-farm area No information

15. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.15 Valuation analysis - crops Crops Prices per ha

16. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.16 Valuation analysis - crops 4,5-5,0 3,5-4,0 3,0-3,5 2,5-3,0 2,0-2,5 1,5-2,0 1,0-1,5 0,5-1,0 0,0-0,5 Below 0 m DVR90 05101520253035 Values (million Dkr.)

17. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.17 m DVR90 01,0 2,03,04,0 Property values (1000 million Dkr.) 4,5-5,0 4,0-4,5 3,5-4,0 3,0-3,5 2,5-3,0 2,0-2,5 1,5-2,0 1,0-1,5 0,5-1,0 0,0-0,5 Valuation analysis - buildings

18. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.18 Damage models 2 examples: 1. Buildings 2. Economic sector - movable property

19. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.19 Buildings (Water level) Water level out side the building (m) 01,02,03,04,04,5 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 Compensation for damage (1000 kr.)

20. Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.20 Economic sector – movable property 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 Compensation for damage (1000 kr.) 01,02,03,04,05,0 Water level out side the building (m)