1. The ForSAFE-VEG model system Reporting on new progress with the ForSAFE-VEG model on vegetation modelling. The result of calibrating a vegetation parameterization database for North America and Europe Professor Harald U. Sverdrup Dr. Salim Belyazid Lund University, Sweden

2. The ForSAFE- VEG model system

3. Dunes, beach and piers (Piet Mondriaan, 1905)

4. Composition II (Mondriaan, 1930) Kunsthaus Zürich

6. Mondrian units of change; average % area-coverage over time as compared to a reference 6 Year 2010 Year 2050

7. Veg composition in 2009 Veg composition in 2050 Veg composition in 2090 Modelled ground cover of plant groups at given years

8. Put all the moments together 1900 to 2100

9. Basic response type

10. The database originates from Workshops with ecologists in – Sweden – Switzerland – France – Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA – New England, USA Literature – Ellenbergs indicators – Landholts indicators – Specific experimental data for individual species

11. Parameter library with 430+ plants

12. CL nutN Vs CL VegN

13. Critical load limit to use We use the Mondrian unit, related to Sørensen or Shannon indicators 5-10 % maximum Mondrian change give the same results as the old mass balance method 15-20 % maximum Mondrian change give the same results as the empirical nitrogen limit method

14. Few groups, field test seems good

15. The development of the VEG parameterization so far 43 > 118 > 365 > 485

16. Use 465 plant species in VEG database. Does it work? No, something is wrong here

17. 42 plant VEG list 365 plant VEG list Sweden

18. Optimal number of groups

19. Strategy for a 5 level calculation and thus, database 1.12 major ecological ground vegetation groups; lichens, mosses, heather-ling, low grasses, tall grasses, ferns, low herbs, tall herbs, bushes, trees (because it works) 2.Inside each of the ecological groups, calculate distribution within group 3.Breaking out single strong indicator species with political clout 4.Statistically associated to the species of the functional species groups attach the red-listed species

20. We change the structure

21. From this………………………………

22. Do distribution WITHIN the limits earlier calculated for each larger grouping class

23. We have learned: 1.Run ForSAFE to get the soil chemistry right 2.Calibrate the VEG parameter database on a subset of sites 3.Do stratified runs with basic groups, and then rerun for distribution within those groups. 4.Run the model on all other data points using this calibrated VEG parameter database

24. Calibrating the VEG parameter table, adjusting the soil moisture response

25. Done and not done in critical loads based on biodiversity criteria Well covered in developed tools – Forested terrestrial, air pollution and climate change Ground vegetation plants, species and groups Tree species – Other terrestrial ecosystems Limited assessment for open land, above tree line, culture landscapes, high protection areas – Aquatic ecosystems, acidification response only Limited for some fish Not covered in developed tools – Terrestrial ecosystems; air pollution and climate change to biodiversity Insects; nothing Larger animals; nothing Soil microbiology; indirectly some (nitrogen transformations, decomposition) – Aquatic ecosystems; air pollution and climate change to biodiversity Aquatic plants; nothing Aquatic animals; nothing Aquatic microbiology; nothing

26. How to get a cut-off 1.Define a set of criteria and use them – Mondrian-Shannon integrating type of ecological index. – Index 2 based on ………………….. – Index 3 based on……. 2.Maximum change in from a chosen reference – New limit all together based on a risk analysis – Empirical approach: 15-20% M change is consistent to what we have done earlier – Mass balance approach. 10% M change is consistent to what we have done earlier 3.Suggest reference states – Future reference including climate change – In the past (not reachable)

27. Aeschau 1750-2450 1750201021002400

28. Done and not done in biodiversity Done – Terrestrial Single site dynamic modeling has been done in several countries Regional assessments already tried: – Sweden – Switzerland – Netherlands – Germany – Aquatic ecosystems Norway and Sweden did regional acidity response Left to do – Terrestrial ecosystems ad- ons Regional assessments for plant and vegetation Do proper research projects on – soil microbiology – insects – Aquatic ecosystems biodiversity modules Do proper research projects on biodiversity assessments, coupling nitrogen and phosphorus, climate change and acidification into models

29. Run ForSAFE-VEG for Critical Loads? 1.Get support for doing so from your local focal center or Environmental authority or other authority 2.Contact a ForSAFE-VEG center that can help train in the model use and show how-to-do – Salim Belyazid and Harald Sverdrup, University of Lund, Sweden, salim.belyazid@belyazid.com, harald.sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se salim.belyazid@belyazid.comharald.sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se – Daniel Kurz, EKG, Bern, Switzerland, Daniel Kurz, geo-science@bluewin.chgeo-science@bluewin.ch 3.Parameterize – Use sites from your soils database with adequate soil data – Create a vegetation parameter database for your country, using Selected entries from the European parameter database Hold workshop with you local ecologists to fill in any gaps 4.Run the model in your country for – Good research sites with good data to show that it works – On a regional database

30. Meetings to plan for when running ForSAFE-VEG One visit to Lund, Sweden or Bern, Switzerland to learn to run the ForSAFE-VEG model in your own team One workshop with the Swedish/Swiss/French experts together with your own ecologists to complete the vegetation parameter file for your country One workshop where the Swedish/Swiss/French experts meet with your team and evaluate the results

31. Summary 1.The terrestrial vegetation runs now yield verifiable results on tree and ground vegetation. 2.A ForSAFE-VEG that can make critical loads for nitrogen based on biodiversity across Europa and North America is available 3.The ForSAFE-VEG model system considers, air pollution, climate change, management and internal dynamics 4.A decided state of reference is still missing. However from multiple runs, we see that: – the past state seems to be out of reach under any conditions – The present state is in a change or is often post-impact – The nearest stable reference seems to lie 150 to 300 years into the future

32. Summary 1.For terrestrial vegetation systems, the ForSAFE-VEG model will be updated with 1.GRAFT (Vegetation-soil chemistry feedbacks) 2.Nitrogen - Phosphorus dynamics for plant response. 2.For aquatic ecosystems, nothing operational is available for biodiversity based on nitrogen. We really need to get the homework done and financed