1. + Disarmament Demobilization and Reintegration Existing Evidence and Unanswered Questions Michael J. Gilligan, New York University

2. + What is DDR? According to the Integrated DDR Standards DDR is: Disarmament: “the collection, documentation, control and disposal of small arms, ammunition, [etc.] Demobilization: “the formal and controlled discharge of active combatants from armed forces or other armed groups” Reintegration: “the process by which ex- combatants acquire civilian status and gain sustainable employment and income. Reintegration is essentially a social and economic process …”

3. + What do we mean by reintegration? Is economic reintegration (finding a livelihood) sufficient? If we want to include social reintegration what do we mean by that? Repairing family relationships Reconciliation with communities Being good citizens Possessing mental and emotional health Respect for state authority Other criteria? Success criteria must be established before we can hope to evaluate these programs

4. + Growth in DDR

5. + The theory behind DDR Rebelling may be a lucrative quasi-criminal activity. Giving ex-combatants another career may encourage them to forsake violence. A better career will raise the opportunity cost of choosing to fight. Reintegration programs may address inequalities that were a motivation for fighting in the first place. People with good steady jobs become better citizens—they become invested in their communities.

6. + A big problem with the theory DDR programs are meant to keep people from returning to fighting but … Given that war is an inefficient means of accomplishing goals in the first place and … there are strong individual incentives to free ride rather than fight, … do we really know why wars break out and why individuals choose to join armed groups? If not how we can design a program to alter that choice?

7. + Does DDR Work? A strong prima facie case that the purely technical components, demobilization and disarmament, are often effective The evidence for the effectiveness of reintegration is much more difficult to find Humpreys and Weinstein 2007 Muggah 2009 Gilligan, Mvukiyehe and Samii (2010) have been able to establish a causal link between a reintegration program and economic benefits

8. + It may be difficult to agree on a universal set of success criteria for all DDR programs DRR programs have very different strategic contexts and often different goals. Compare: Outright victory in Sri Lanka Negotiated peace in Nepal Ongoing war in Colombia Externally enforced DDR in Afghanistan These programs may have have different goals and therefore different success criteria

9. + But we must try to learn some general lessons from each program Otherwise we will never be able to improve future programs The trick is to devise an evaluation strategy that: 1) assesses the success of each individual program 2) takes into account specific characteristics each particular strategic and cultural post conflict milieu and 3) answers necessary general questions about DDR

10. + What general questions? A remaining big question: We still need many more studies to see if DDR programs really do encourage economic integration One study in one very specific circumstance (Burundi) is not enough That study was not able to establish whether the DDR program increased incomes by more than the amount given by the program.

11. + More general questions: Is the emerging consensus valid? An emerging consensus (Kingma and Muggah 2009): DDR should occur early in the peace process DRR programs should have “national ownership” Community-based reintegration is superior to individual-based reintegration While they sound plausible none of these claims has been tested

12. + More general questions When is making use of combatant command structures a help. When is it a hindrance? When should combatants be separated from their units and when should DDR programs make use of that cohesion? If DDR does promote economic integration does economic integration in turn lead to social integration? If so what are the mechanisms?

13. + SSR, Transitional Justice and PKOs DDR and SSR When should DDR occur in conjunction with SSR and when should it not? What should be the relationship between DDR and SSR activities? DDR and transitional justice When should DDR occur in conjunction with transitional justice programs and when should it not? What should be the relationship between DDR and transitional justice programs. Should members of illegal armed groups be required to make restitution? If so when? DDR and PKOs Is DDR more successful in the presence of third-party peace operations? How can we build ex-combatants confidence without such missions?

14. + Conclusion: many more questions than answers Does DDR lead to economic integration? Does DDR lead to social integration and what is the link to economic integration? What should be the role of combatant units and command structures? What is the value of community-based as opposed to individual-based programs? What is the proper link with SSR, transitional justice and PKOs (if any)

15. + At a more fundamental level We need to know more about why people join armed groups in the first place Without that knowledge we won’t know how to get people to choose not to join armed group when faced with the choice. Only then will we have a convincing answer to the mother of all DDR questions: does DDR lead to prolonged peace and why?