1. Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest By Rosimeiry Portela At Conservation International Washington, DC July, 2005

2. Introduction The Amazon tropical rain forest: Largest tract of tropical forest on Earth with half of the species of the world. Vegetation: Regional pattern of precipitation and radiation and and regulation of GHGs. Plant animal interactions and nutrient cycling. UC Davis

3. Legal Amazon, Brazil

4. “To try to understand the structure and function of …(the Amazon) is comparable to composing a mosaic picture. www.bbcnews.com www.redjellyfish.com gustavofonseca Sioli, H. 1984

5. RUMBA: Integrating functions of the ecosystem to human economy and social interactions… …with the main focus on the contribution of the ecosystem goods and functions to human economy and welfare.

6. RUMBA: Scenarios www.bbcnews.com Baseline: Historical trends; Scenario 1: Increased investment in BC with region’s own financial resources; Scenario 2: Increased investment in BC with region’s and external financial resources; Scenario 3: Increased investment in NC with region’s own financial resources; Scenario 4: Increased investment in NC with region’s and external financial resources.

7. Research Results: Annual Deforestation Rates Baseline and Alternative Scenarios

8. Research Results: Annual Deforestation Rates Year 2050 Scenario 1: 27 thousand km 2 yr -1 Scenario 2: 29 thousand km 2 yr -1 Scenario 3: 22 thousand km 2 yr -1 Scenario 4: 25 thousand km 2 yr -1 Forest is cleared at a faster rate under scenarios of increased development. 2050: Baseline: 26 thousand km 2 yr -1

9. Research Results: Annual Deforestation Rates Deforested areas under scenarios of increased development are higher than those of conservation and Baseline Deforestation in Scenario in Relation Baseline (2100) Scenario 1: -73 thousand km 2 Scenario 1: -73 thousand km 2 Scenario 2: -171 thousand km 2 Scenario 2: -171 thousand km 2 Scenario 3: +205 thousand km 2 Scenario 3: +205 thousand km 2 Scenario 4: +45 thousand km 2 Scenario 4: +45 thousand km 2

10. Research Results: Land Cover/Land Use Composition Baseline Scenario Strong trend in land conversion from forest to other land uses; 1975: 96% forest cover 2100: 26% forest cover Land Use Pasture: 40% Fallow: 24% Agriculture: 10%

11. Results: Climate Variables/Baseline Scenario Precipitation: 23% reduction Evapotranspiration: 26%reduction Temperature: 11% increase Forest Carbon Balance: Decreasing Uptake and Increasing Emissions www.Redjellyfish.com

12. Results: Ecosystem Services Variables Removal of forest cover leads to increasing losses of ecosystem services: +70% by 2100 Higher losses observed in scenarios of increased development Monetary valuation: Increasing prices per unit of service www.greenpeace.com

13. Results: Average Values of Ecosystem Services www.greenpeace.com

14. Results: Monetary Valuation of Ecosystem Services Value of ecosystem services is estimated at about 5 times the GRP

15. Results: Capital Variables/Baseline Scenario POPULATION GROWTH (1E6 People) 19752100 BASELINE11.061.2 SCENARIO 166.3 SCENARIO 267.9 SCENARIO 355.1 SCENARIO 4 57.4 www.greenpeace.com

16. Results: Capital Variables/All Scenarios BUILT CAPITAL 1E6 US$ (2001) KNOWLEDGE SOCIAL NETWORK SNI 197521001975210019752100 BASELINE55515,00947.8810.84.169.93 SCENARIO 1 23,197 455.8 455.89.86 SCENARIO 2 26,124313.19.88 SCENARIO 3 7,373922.59.94 SCENARIO 4 8,2581,238.89.95

17. Results: Capital Variables/Capita All Scenarios BC/CAPITA 1E3 US$ (2001)/Person KNOW/CAPITA SNI/CAPITASNI/Person 197521001975210019752100 BASELINE49.5245.14.313.20.370.16 SCENARIO 1 349.96.90.15 SCENARIO 2 384.34.60.15 SCENARIO 3 133.816.70.18 SCENARIO 4 143.821.60.17

18. Results: Economic Variables GRP

19. Results: Welfare/All Scenarios

20. Results: Compensation for Avoided Deforestation Gains to the regional economy from forest conversion against losses associated with emissions Scenario 3 (2005-2091) Forest spared from deforestation : 210 thousand km 2 Avoided Emissions: 3.0 Pg C Foregone economic growth: US$ 1.7 Trillion www.junglephotos.com Amazon Deforestation: Amazon Deforestation: 0.3 Pg C yr -1 Kyoto Target: Kyoto Target: 0.5 Pg C yr -1

21. Results: Single Compensation for Avoided Emission

22. Results: Continuous Compensation for Avoided Emission

23. Discussion: Main Findings  Increasing land use change in the Brazilian Amazon incurs significant losses without this being adequately offset by increasing monetary income or welfare of people of the region. www.nasa.com  In the absence of significant incentives from global beneficiaries for any one ecosystem service or a combination of incentives addressing several ecosystem services, rational uses at the local level lead to sub optimal uses from the global perspective.

24. Discussion: Alternatives Effective Comand and Control Regulations Efficient Market-Based Instruments: Carbon-offsetting trading Conservation Concession Timber Certification Fair Trade Secure Property Rights Tradeable Development Rights International Grants Resources Global Forestry Agreements www.junglephotos.com

25. Overall Conclusions Deforestation proceeds at high rates in the Brazilian Amazon The region suffers significant climate changes and losses of forest services as a result of forest removal Increasing regional economic growth is not translated into increasing monetary income and welfare Protection of forest will require a concerted long-term effort www.junglephotos.com

26. Model Limitations and Caveats RUMBA: A unified metamodel Use of average parameters; Assumptions to model processes that are poorly understood; Linearly homogeneous production functions; Sensitivity of production limits of biosphere to climate variables; Sensitivity of economic production to climate variables and decreasing stocks of natural capital; A economic distribution function. www.bbc.com

27. ‘What we are doing to the forest of the world is but a mirror reflection of what we are doing to ourselves and one another’. —Mahatma Ghandi www.freejunglephotos.com