1. V&A OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WATER RESOURCES SECTOR IN KENYA Francis Mutua Department of Meteorology University of Nairobi – Kenya

2. National Circumstances Nat. Dev strongly dependent on availability and quantity of fresh WR Kenya is fairly endowed with water in the form of: –Rainfall (300-1200mm per annum) - (50% of total freshwater resources) –ground water (30% of total freshwater resources) –river flows (10% of total freshwater resources) –Lakes – (10% of total freshwater resources) –Glaziers (<0.01% of the total freshwater resources) –oceans. Temporal –Variability –Change

3. Rainfall Characteristics in Kenya

4. Climate Variability and Water Resources Climate variations have significant consequences on the quality and quantity of water in all hydrological regimes. Climate variability is the major cause of the extremes which are observed in hydrological systems in Kenya: floods and droughts NB: floods (quick onset) and droughts (slow onset) hazards are part of the climate systems and therefore unavoidable However, they need not become disasters because it is possible to to be prepared for them (especially drought hazards) Often, they turn into disasters –Famine and crop failure –Deaths (humans and livestock) –Adverse economic impacts and impoverishment –Conflicts

5. Disasters in Kenya 1.Droughts 2.Floods 3.Lightning, wind-storms, hailstorms, etc 4.Epidemics –Malaria –HIV/AIDS –Cholera 5.Environmental degradation (desertification, pollution, soil erosion, etc) 6.Earthquakes 7.Pest infestation, Conflicts, fires, livestock diseases, etc. Most of these are climate-driven vis- à-vis the available freshwater resources such as lakes, rivers and groundwater. Thresholds not readily available because of the time-variance of the water resources systems mainly due to increasing land use activities.

6. Prevalence of Disasters in Kenya

7. Institutions involved in Flood/Drought Issues Ministry of Water Resources Management and Development Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Roads and Public Works National Disaster Centre in the Office of the President Provincial Administration in the Office of the President Kenya Meteorological Department in the Ministry of Transport and Communications Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources and Wildlife National Environmental Management Authority in the Ministry of Local Government Ministry of Health Ministry of Lands and Settlement Basin Development Authorities District Disaster Communities Community flood/drought Committees NGOS

8. Floods vulnerabilities

9. Flood vulnerabilities

10. Vulnerable People and Places –People who live on arid or semi-arid lands, in low-lying coastal areas, in water-limited or flood-prone areas –It is… clear that climate change will, in many parts of the world, adversely affect socio-economic sectors, including water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and human settlements, ecological systems …, and human health …, with developing countries being the most vulnerable. (IPCC 2000a) –Developing countries… have lesser capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to climate change damages, just as they are to other stresses. This condition is most extreme among the poorest people. (IPCC 2001: 8)

11. Flood and drought Impacts Sectors: –Community safety (loss of lives, starvation, conflicts, migrations, etc) –Agriculture –Environmental degradation –Hydropower generation and transmission –Communications infrastructure –Tourism and wildlife –Community Health (malaria, depression, typhoid, diarrhoea, HIV/AIDS) –Politics –Leisure –etc

12. VULNERABILITY IN WATER RESOURCES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE The physical factors –Existence of a highly variable hydrological and climatic regime that is marginal for agricultural and livestock developments; –Episodic precipitation patterns which promote high rates of sedimentation and siltation; –Topography and soil patterns that promote soil erosion; –Lack of variety in climatic conditions across the region which weaken the options for relocation in strategies which are intended to reduce the drought risk. –Lack of adequate mainstreaming of climate information in water resources planning The societal factors –Poverty and low income levels; –Conflicts and wars; –Pandemics; –High dependence on rain-fed systems; –Lack of controls for strengthening security in water supplies and consequently in crucial water uses such as irrigation and hydro-power generation; –Poor planning and management of agricultural water supply and irrigation systems; –High population densities and other factors that inhibit population mobility and implementation of traditional coping mechanisms; –Inexperience of communities to cope with droughts; –Unwillingness of communities to live with some drought risks as a trade-off against beneficial services or goods. –Low level of trust in climate prediction products Vulnerability = Function of: Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity (Resilience)

13. Drought Vulnerability

14. Flood Vulnerability

15. Prioritization of Climate Change issues (NCSA) Criterion C1: Poverty reduction and alleviation of hunger 35% C2: Health concerns including maternal and child health and life expectancy25% C3: Sustainability of the environment25% C4: Response to International concerns15%

16. Prioritization of climate change issues (NCSA) Climate change issueRanking of Issues against each of the set criteria Weighted ranking Priority C1 35% C2 25% C3 25% C4 15% V & A42312.71 Awareness & understanding31422.54 Research & syst. observations2.5 5* GHG inv., abatement, sinks & sequestration 22332.47* CDM41322.652 Transfer of Env. Sound techs32412.553 Climate change strategies and Policy framework 2.5 6* Synergies2.5 8*

17. Existing and Emerging Hazards and Vulnerabilities

18. PREVIOUS STUDIES ON V&A IN WATER RESOURCES The United States Country Studies Programme (USCSP) in 1994. –WATBAL for water Resources The UNDP/GEF Capacity Building in Sub Sahara Africa to Respond to UNFCCC in 1996. The INC UNEP study on the implications of climate change, sea level rise and vulnerability assessment of selected coastlines.

19. Findings of Vulnerabilities in W.R in Previous Studies in Kenya Rainfall TemperatureNo change (0)Decrease (-)Increase (+) No Change (0)Category A (0) Category B (+) Category A (-) Category B (+) Category A (+) Category B (+) Increase (+)Category A (-) Category B (+) Category A (-) Category B (+) Category A (+) Category B (+) Category A: are W.R attributes which are affected directly by CC  Quantity, levels. etc Category B: are W.R attributes which are affected indirectly by CC  Mainly impacts of CC such as water-use, quality, drought and flood frequencies, etc.

20. Adaptation 1.Unavailability of readily usable climate information in some cases 2.Limitations of institutional setup and monitoring priorities 3.Inadequate awareness of the value of climate and weather information 4.Mistrust in the quality of meteorological data and products 5.Unfavorable packaging and delivery of climate and weather information and products 6.Reducing over-reliance on rainfall in developmental activities (diversification from rain-fed agriculture to more use of groundwater) 7.Reducing pollution in water resources (proper land-use management - policies) 8.Large isolated vs. small and well distributed water supply projects 9.Education and awareness 10.Promotion of water-use efficient technologies to minimize wastages 11.Monitoring, assessments and research (development of sustainable EWS) Kenya govt has been sensitized on many of these issues and has in the past few years been spearheading development and implementation of policies that can strengthen the resilience of the society (reduce their vulnerabilities) in the water sector due to climate change

21. Capacity Needs in V&A in Water Resources- Kenya CC Issue Capacity needs Systemic InstitutionalIndividual VA  An overall policy framework to direct what is by necessity an integrated multi- sector, multi- disciplinary approach to V&A.  Clearly defined institutional mandates and responsibilities.  Specialized institutions in V&A with special capacity to develop analysis in the economic impacts of climate change (economic vulnerability).  Generally well- trained human resources to address global climate change.  Easy access to data from climate measurement/monitoring systems.  Specially trained individual with analytical skills to evaluate adaptation projects and identify abatement and adaptation options (in both energy and non-energy sectors), undertake vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning, evaluate barriers to specific policies, and introduce the economic dimension to V&A policy planning.