1. Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level Matthew Hamilton, MS, MPH Venture Strategies for Health and Development Berkeley, California March 18, 2011

2. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.7 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 2010, current population size

3. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.8 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 2010, current population size

4. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 11% (2008) 2010, current population size

5. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.6 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 30% (2008) 2010, current population size

6. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 4 (2007) Unmet need for family planning: 22.8 (2007) 2010, current population size

7. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 6.0 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 29% (2008) 2010, current population size

8. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 4.7 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 20% (2008) 2010, current population size

9. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 1.5 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 2.3% (2003) 2010, current population size

10. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 6% (2008) 2010, current population size

11. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 6.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 24.4% (2007) 2010, current population size

12. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 3.0 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 11% (2008) 2010, current population size

13. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 34% (2008) 2010, current population size

14. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.3 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 2010, current population size

15. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 4.0 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 34% (2008) 2010, current population size

16. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 4.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 28% (2008) 2010, current population size

17. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.6 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 13% (2008) 2010, current population size

18. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 9% (2008) 2010, current population size

19. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 3.8 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 12% (2008) 2010, current population size

20. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 4.6 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 24% (2008) 2010, current population size

21. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 6.0 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 27% (2008) 2010, current population size

22. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 6.6 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 29% (2008) 2010, current population size

23. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.2 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 12.0% (2006) 2010, current population size

24. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 11% (2008) 2010, current population size

25. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.1 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 19% (2008) 2010, current population size

26. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.5 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 15% (2008) 2010, current population size

27. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 7.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 16% (2008) 2010, current population size

28. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.7 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 17% (2008) 2010, current population size

29. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 4.0 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 33% (2008) 2010, current population size

30. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 3.2 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 17% (2008) 2010, current population size

31. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 38% (2008) 2010, current population size

32. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 4.9 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 31% (2008) 2010, current population size

33. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 15% (2008) 2010, current population size

34. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.6 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 22% (2008) 2010, current population size

35. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 6.5 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 41% (2008) 2010, current population size

36. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 3.82 (2006) Unmet need for family planning: 21.2% (2006) 2010, current population size

37. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 5.5 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 51% (2008) 2010, current population size

38. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 6.2 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 28% (2008) 2010, current population size

39. The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size. Total fertility rate: 3.7 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 13% (2008) 2010, current population size