1. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 by Aalborg University David Connolly Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen Henrik Lund Halmstad University Urban Persson Daniel Nilsson Sven Werner PlanEnergi Daniel Trier for H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 STUDY FOR THE EU27

2. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Heat Roadmap Europe 2050 Presented by:

3. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Why this study?  the heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2050.  The first study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, a smarter energy system

4. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Existing Studies  Existing scenario reports:  Fail to provide proper analysis of heating and cooling  Have a too low time and geographical resolution to model the realities of the energy market, especially DHC  Acknowledge the importance of DHC until 2030/2030, but  Assume high shares of electric heating, low heat consumption and low shares of DHC by 2050

5. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050  Urban areas (Heating Demands)  Power and Heat Generation  Waste Management  Industrial waste heat potential  Geothermal heat  Solar Thermal  the study indicates that the market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050. Many Energy Sources

6. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Energi System Analyse Model www.EnergyPLAN.eu

7. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Europe IEA 2010 and EU CPI scenario 2050 CPI = Current Policy Initiatives IEA Statistics 2009 EU Energy Roadmap 2050 Reference (12% DH) (IEA 2010 and EU CPI 2050) Versus Reference plus 30% and 50% DH (and CHP etc.)

8. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 District Heating benefits in 2 steps Step 1: (Energy Efficiency) -Increasing DH to 30% then 50% -Increasing CHP -Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHP Step 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources) -Industrial waste heat -Waste incineration -Geothermal heat -Large-scale Solar Thermal

9. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Year 2010 Step 1: Energy Efficiency IEA Statistics

10. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Year 2010 Step 2 IEA Statistics

11. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Total European Energy Supply 7% reduction in Primary Energy Supply 13% reduction in fossil fuels 17% reduction in CO2-emissions IEA Statistics

12. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 CPI reference EU Energy Roadmap 2050

13. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Total European Energy Supply HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050: 5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply 10% reduction in fossil fuels 13% reduction in CO2-emissions EU Energy Roadmap 2050

14. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Cost and Jobs  Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050  In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050  Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR  Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total Approx. 220,000 jobs.

15. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP  Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions  Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approx. 10 Billion in 2050  Create additional 220,000 jobs in the period 2013-2050  Further integration of RES

16. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 To be continued  In continuation of this study to make a tighter connection between the energy modelling part and the mapping part  Advocate full energy balance matrixes in future projections concerning the future European energy system such as Energy Roadmap 2050  Further optimise the DH-scenarios (replace electric heating, expand CHP and HP, further the integration of wind and PV etc.)

17. H EAT R OADMAP E UROPE 2050 Thank you  Need further information  www.heatroadmapeurope.eu www.heatroadmapeurope.eu