1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia Yuki Honda RA II Theme Leader on NWP Systems and Products Japan Meteorological Agency Munehiko Yamaguchi Meteorological Research Institute Special thanks to: Shunsuke Hoshino (MRI/JMA) Mio Matsueda (JAMSTEC) Tetsuo Nakazawa (WMO)

2. In 2009, the tyhoon Ketsana made the worst damage in Southeaset Asia. After passing Phiippines, it hit Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia and Tailand. The total loss of lives are about 700 and the estimated damage reachs over about $700 million to $1.0 billion USD. Flood Windstorm Cyclones Drought

3. 14 th Session of RA-II 4.1.2The Association noted that the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) has achieved significant results and benefits relative to the GDPFS and PWS programmes in its first regional project in Africa, and requested the Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and Service Delivery [ref. XIV- RA II/Doc. 5.1] to consider developing a SWFDP RA II project as a method for enhancing the GDPFS and PWS and contributing to disaster risk reduction goals in developing countries, for example, those in Southeast Asia that have recently experienced disasters.

4. Workshop on SWFDP Development For Southeast Asia Workshop on SWFDP Development For Southeast Asia (Ha Noi, Viet Nam, 2-5 Februrary, 2010) – Chair : Edwin S. T. Lai (HKO) Coordinator of Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and Service Delivery in RA-II CBS endorsement – 3 rd meeting of Steering Group of SWFDP (Feb.2010, Geneva) recognized this arising sub-project and gave the highest priority to this sub-project with other 2 sub-projects. – CBS Extraordinary Session (2010) (Namibia; Nov. 2010)

5. Target Severe Weather Events The following events are focused in order of decreasing priority and associated hazards such as flooding, landslides, high waves and swell: tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge); heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography; thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection; cold conditions and frost; extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect.

6. Participants and Domain Global Centres  CMA  JMA  KMA Regional Centres  Hanoi (regional forecast support)  Hong Kong (training and technical support)  RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi (Typhoon /Tropical Cyclone forecasting support) NMCs  Cambodia  Lao PDR  Thailand  Viet Nam

7. NWP/EPS Products Deterministic Products – Weather Charts on Specified Pressure Levels – Wind, Temperature, Geopotential Height, Humidity, Precipitation, CAPE…etc. EPS Products – Stamp Maps – Probability Maps of Precipitation, Wind Speed and Significant Wave Height (one or a few thretholds) – EPSgrams – Typhoon/TC Strike Propability Maps …etc. (EFI)

8. Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia Satellite Imagery and Tools WMO SP PWS (+ TCP + HWR + MMO) General Public, Media and Disaster Management MH-EWS Dissemination of Weather Information Regional Centre Global Centres (CMA, JMA and KMA) RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi National Met Centres (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam) Global NWP/EPS TC Guidance Products GDPFS PWS Flash Flood Guidance HWR Landfall Typhoon Forecast Demonstration Project WWRP + TCP

9. Product  Deterministic Forecast from Global Model  Probabilistic Forecast from Global medium- range EPS

10. How to see KMA NWP outputs

11. Synergy with Other Regional Activities There are some on-going and planned projects related to NWP system and products. RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts JMA Pilot Project on EPS Products (EPS-WEB)

12. RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts 13 th Session of RA II - to enable developing countries of RA II access NWP products; By the beginning of 2009, 18 countries had joined the Project; and, Hong Kong, China; Japan and the Republic of Korea provided forecast time series products for over 160 cities to 13 countries.

13. 13 The products in JMA EPS-WEB are recommended by Manual on the GDPFS (WMO No.485). In addition to the web-site for public users, JMA provides a web-site for meteorologists and forecasters in foreign countries. The special forecast products derived from EPS are disseminated on the website, “JMA EPS-WEB”, supporting the activity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Asia. The data in this website is available for operational weather forecasting in your countries. JMA EPS-WEB

14. Synergy with TIGGE/GIFS in RA II CMA – Archive Centre of the THORPEX/TIGGE project – Store EPS products from 10 NWP centres every day. MRI – North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project

15. A WWRP-RDP project “North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project” intends to build on the TIGGE concept and take advantage of the TIGGE CXML data provided by multiple organizations for improving TC track forecast skill over the North western Pacific, starting from 2009, as a five-year project. The objectives of the NWP-TCTEF Project are: -to explore and develop effective ways of obtaining and utilizing the track forecast data from TIGGE data providers to improve medium range forecast of TC track forecast -to develop software for a real time multi-model tropical cyclone forecasting system from data transfer to verification -to evaluate the utility of multi-model forecasts of tropical cyclones track predictions and provide recommendations on future multi- model ensemble systems and on future GIFS-RDPs NWP-TCTEF Project

16. Tropical Cyclone Products - MCGE - Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Information Homepage (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/login.php) by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of JMA Multi Centre Grand Ensemble by TIGGE Strike Probability Each Track Send email to thorpex@mri-jma.go.jp to get ID and passwordthorpex@mri-jma.go.jp

17. Tropical Cyclone Products – Each Center EPS - Track predictions by each EPS are also available Participants CMA MSC ECMWF JMA-WEPS JMA-TEPS KMA NCEP STI UKMO

18. Distance to TC center is plotted with box plots Strike probability at specific time is plotted with bars Strike Probability time-series at a city - 1- Time

19. Select city Time series of strike probability and the distance to TC center Strike Probability time-series at a city - 2- The users can select a city to see the strike probability time- series maps by multi-model EPS and each center’s EPS

20. 192hr Color Shading: Percentage of Members, which exceed 90 Percentile of Us 216hr Case study for Vietnam Flood in Oct. 2008 Genesis Potential using TIGGE

21. EPSgram CMC ECMWF JMA NCEP UKMO Climatology based on Reanalysis data

22. CMA MSC EMCWF STI JMA KMA NCEP Meteorological Research Institute Regional Centre Hanoi National Met. Centres Cambodia Lao P.D.R.Vietnam Thailand UKMO Multi-Centres Grand Ensemble GIFS Products Daily Severe Weather Forecasting Guidance Feedback - Evaluation of usefulness in forecasting operation Testify GIFS Products for Operational Use

23. May Add One More Cell To Evaluation GIFS Products A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EVALUATION FORM - everytime after events-

24. Quarterly Evaluations A summarized evaluation report every quarter

25. GIFS ↔ SWFDP GIFS producers will give additional research products from multi-center grand ensemble, which are proved valuable by scientific evaluation. SWFDP subprojects will return the feedback to GIFS producers with subjective evaluation of GIFS products for operational use.

26. Issues in Forecasting Operation Products Available Time –Products regarding Severe Weather may lose their quality quickly as the forecast time goes. Coordination with Other Similar Products –NWP/EPS Products of Regional Centre Hanoi –NWP/EPS Products of Global Models from Each NWP Center –And …

27. Typhoon Forecasts from Various Sources Typhoon Ketsana (18/21 UTC 28 Sep 2009) RSMC Tokyo Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (US Navy) Hong Kong Observatory From Beijing ** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTC 00HR 15.9N 109.8E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 106.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 15.8N 103.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= China Meteorological Administration