1. WAVES / STORM SURGES operational multi-hazard french early warning system Division Marine & Oceanography Meteo-France JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Speaker: Ing. Laurent Perron

2. + excellent warning for strong wind, issued 24H in advance, the forecast was accurate. Storm surge warning issued to the concerned nuclear power plant. - heavy losses by wave/storm surge: centennial event, 51 died trapped in their homes, infrastructure not adapted, advice for escape/evacuation not issued (no experience of escape/evacuation before Xynthia in continental France) Xynthia storm damages (february 2010)

3. Xynthia storm: unlucky conjunction of high tide, swell, sea wind and storm surge

4. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Xynthia disaster: data from La Pallice, Atlantic coast (SHOM) SHOM Storm surge Tidal forecast Seal level observation Centennial sea level

5. We had almost all the tools to forecast and issue warnings for wave/storm surges events, but they were not ready to work together in real time 24/7: - storm surge models - meteorological forecasts models - tide forecasts - waves forecasts - maps of endangered areas (under sea-level or just above sea-level) - experience of limited coastal evacuation in french tropical islands

6. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Storm surges models (Meteo-France) Storm surge operationals models of Météo-France 4 runs/day, forecast up to 48h resolution = 2,5’ (~5 km) 2 domains : East Atlantic and West Mediterranea 3 atmospherics models : Aladin, Arpège and CEPMMT results on forecasters workstation Synergie, intranet and extranet East Atlantic Mediterranea

7. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Other storm surge model www.previmer.org Modèle MARS 2D Previmer Ifremer resolution 2,5 km forecasts every 6H

8. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Three atmospheric models 3 atmospherics models : Aladin, Arpège and CEPMMT may forecast different storm surges, but the forecasters know how to handle this multi-model information

9. Cooperation with authorities and technical state services (SHOM, DGPR, DREAL, DDTM, Préfectures, Météo-France, Ifremer...) -drawing maps of vulnerability to waves/storm surge -statistical risk information

10. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Maps of « low lands » in Picardie area Atlas des zones basses (MEDDTL)

11. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Real time sea level observation network (SHOM)

12. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 extreme sea levels statistics (© CETMEF/SHOM 2008). 6,48 m 100 years time period 6,00 m

13. (too many false alarms kill confidence, undetected events are not acceptable) - collect tide gauges data, statistics - locate all sensitive coastal areas - collect historic disasters information, determine sea level and waves associated with these events determination of « reasonable » rules to trigger the wave/storm surges warnings

14. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Local rules to trigger the warnings We shall avoid two many false alarms and undetected serious events Two entries table with: - vertical: high tide+storm surge - horizontal: H1/3

15. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Real time tidal observations Hourly map of storm surge forecasts Visual help to qualify the warning « Synergie » forecaster workstation

16. Simulation on a real past event : XYNTHIA storm

17. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 26 february storm surge and tidal forecast for Xynthia storm

18. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Xynthia: test on past event, 27 february 2010, Charente maritime district 6h16h Version provisoire Xynthia storm : warning rules for wave/storm surge warning, 27 february

19. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 French Map of early warning issued 27 february 2010 at 6h00 Côte Atlantique : à la pleine mer, submersions côtières exceptionnelles pour le littoral en rouge et très importantes pour le littoral en orange. Vents violents sur une grande partie de la France en cours de nuit de samedi à dimanche et en journée de dimanche. Vagues-submersion/Rouge - Ne prenez la mer sous aucun prétexte Ne circulez pas en bord de mer et ne fréquentez pas les plages ou rivages où déferlent des rouleaux ; Protégez les embarcations nautiques Habitants du bord de mer, protégez vos biens face à la montée des eaux, préparez-vous à évacuer vos habitations.

20. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 27 february storm surge and tidal forecast for Xynthia storm

21. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 La très forte tempête continuera sa traversée du pays ce dimanche. Côte Atlantique, submersions exceptionnelles en cours. Débordement prévisible des cours d'eau Atlantique. Vagues-submersion/Rouge - Ne prenez la mer sous aucun prétexte … French Map of early warning issued 28 february 2010 at 6h00

22. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Mayor responsable of protection of people under his jurisdiction Home ministry Department of civil defense and public safety Prefect of the defense zone City Départemental Zonal National COD COZ COGIC Warning sent simultaneously to public, mass media and authorities Prefect of the departement

23. JCOMM4 YEOSU MAY 2012 Future evolutions For 2012 extension to east Mediterranea (after validation) ensemble forecasts (from ARPEGE and EPS CEPMMT) more tests on historic events After 2012 generalisation of finite elements models interactions storm surge models / wave models (drag, set-up) european multi-models forecasts (ENSURF, project Ecoop/IBI-ROOS/MOON)

24. Thanks for your attention