Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byKaleigh Comfort Modified over 9 years ago
1
International Association of Oil and Gas Producers Oil and Gas Security of Supply for Europe Athens, 3 rd November, 2005
2
2 Agenda Global Energy Demand Oil and Gas Resources EU Gas Issues Investment, Demand Growth and Spare Capacity Indigenous Production Technology Summary
3
3 Global energy demand - growth continues Source: ExxonMobil, 2004 Energy demand fuelled by economic and population growth Fossil fuels will retain their market share Renewables enjoy significant growth but remain marginal Energy efficiency gains included in forecast Energy price trends and developing countries’ demand remain uncertain
4
4... and large oil and gas resources exist Trillion Barrels Oil Equivalent World Hydrocarbon Resources Technically RecoverableAlready Produced Source: IEA
5
5...with substantial potential Claude Mandil (IEA): -“Quenching the world’s oil thirst …. is a major investment in modern technology.” Source: IEA Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price
6
6 Resources not a constraint Oil resources -Ample conventional resources exist -Unconventional volumes untapped Gas resources -Significant upside to support growing demand -Market incentives exist to develop remote resources
7
7...with abundant gas reserves Proven gas reserves -1984: 96 Tcm -1994:143 Tcm -2004:180 Tcm Reserves-to-production ratio: 66.7 years Highly concentrated 70–80% within economic reach of Europe Technically recoverable conventional gas: ~ 450 Tcm
8
8 Source : WoodMackenzie, Cedigaz, Total 550 650 2004 2010 2015 2004 2010 2015 40 100 715 140... albeit from more distant sources Europe* (EU34) * EU25 + Bulg / Cro / Rom / Turk + Norw/Bos/Mac/Serb/Switz 255191 305 319 295270 Dom. Prod. LNG Imports Pipeline Imports Demand in Bcm LNG -Imports to triple Pipeline gas -Imports to grow by > 50% Total imports by 2015: -~450 Bcm/y Increased competition for supplies
9
9... and Europe is well positioned Nigeria LNG Algeria Norway Libya Egypt 48 Tcm 30 Tcm Qatar Iran Iraq Russia Caspian 9 Tcm … but it needs Supply diversification Integration of gas networks Dialogue with producing countries Contractual flexibility -Long term contracts Regulatory stability Improving market efficiency -Interoperability
10
10 The development challenge Resources + access + investment + technology + market + lead times …. Production
11
11 Industry investment is increasing Upstream investments -Up nearly 60% since 1999 -In 2003 at $160 billion Predictions for 2005 -$180 billion Annual requirement to 2030 -$200 billion Global Upstream Investment Source : J.S Herold / Harrison Lovegrove
12
12 OPEC spare production capacity - historic lows Source: DOE / EIA / BP Recent oil price rise seems to reflect: -Reduced spare capacity -Risk premium 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1970 1973197619791982 198519881991 1994 199720002003 Million Barrels per Day
13
13 European basin – a leading global producer Source: BP Stat review 2004 5101520 Year 2004 Production Mboe per day
14
14... with a major contribution to EU economy Indigenous potential up to 100 billion boe Supports European manufacturing and service Industry Sustains employment Contributes tax revenues Facilitates access to global resources
15
15... supported by new technologies More oil becomes accessible -Deep water -Reservoirs with higher pressures -Difficult geography Recovery factor up - Current average around 35% - 1% increase = 1 year global energy consumption
16
16 … a need for stability
17
17...in summary A shared challenge
18
18 Summary Thank you for your attention!
19
19... to meet oil demand growth Forecast History Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2005
20
20 German Gas – Growing Reserves through Technology
21
21 German Gas – Growing Reserves through Technology
22
22 German Gas – Growing Reserves through Technology
23
23 German Gas – Growing Reserves through Technology 3D seismic, sub salt imaging, horizontal drilling, sour gas processing ….
24
24 German Gas – Growing Reserves through Technology 3D seismic, sub salt imaging, horizontal drilling, sour gas processing ….
Similar presentations
© 2024 SlidePlayer.com Inc.
All rights reserved.