1. 1 Trend and Year-to-year Variability of Land-Surface Air Temperature and Land-only Precipitation Simulated by the JMA AGCM By Shoji KUSUNOKI, Keiichi MATSUMARU, Toshiyuki NAKAEGAWA, and Osamu ARAKAWA Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency

2. 2 Contents 1.Purpose 2.Model 3. Experimental design 4. Results 5. Summary

3. 3 Purpose Evaluate model’s reproducibility 1. Focus ● Trend ● Year-to-year variability 2. Target physical variable ● Land surface temperature ● Land-only precipitation

4. 4 Model : MJ98 Resolution: T42, 270 km grid spacing, 30 levels, 0.4 hPa top Radiation: Shibata et al. (1999) Deep convection: Prognostic of Arakawa- Schubert, Randal and Pan (1993) Land surface: Simple Biosphere (SiB) model, Sato et al. (1989) Vertical diffusion: Mellor and Yamada (1974), level 2 closure Gravity wave drug: Iwasaki et al. (1989)

5. 5 Experimental Design SST=OBS, CO2=OBS 1872 1949 1951 2001 1872 2001 Standard Run: 6 members CO2 Const Run: 6 members 1951-2001 Run: 6 members SST=OBS CO2= 285 ppmv SST=OBS CO2=OBS

6. 6 Standard Run External forcing Sea Surface Temperature: HadISST1.1 Sea Ice: HadISST1.0 CO2: GISS data by Hansen et al. (2002) N2O=306 ppbv, CH4=1650 ppbv by AMIP2 NO sulfates, Solar constant unchanged NO ozone depletion Ensemble size: 6 Target period: 1872-2001, 130 years

7. 7 Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Global mean, Annual mean Anomaly from 1961-1990 climatology YEAR 1872 2001

8. 8 CO2 Concentration 288 370 1872 2001 285 1949 Standard run CO2 285 ppm run

9. 9 Observational Data for Verification Land surface temperature Source: Jones et al. (2001) Target period: 1872~2001 Resolution: Monthly, 5 degree grid Precipitation, Land only Source: Hulme et al. (1998) Target period: 1901~1997 Resolution: Monthly, 5 degree grid http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/

10. 10 Land Surface Air Temperature Global, Annual, Anomaly from 1961-1990 climatology OBSERVATION YEAR 1872 2001 Each Model Run

11. 11 Land Surface Air Temperature Global, Annual, Linear Trend OBSERVATION MODEL Ensemble Average YEAR 1872 2001

12. 12 Land surface Air Temperature, Global Linear trend (C/Century) OBS Ann Spr Sum Aut Win MODEL

13. 13 Annual Trend (C/Century) OBS Model 1872-2001

14. 14 Land Surface Air Temperature Global, Annual, Anomaly from 1961-1990 climatology OBSERVATION YEAR 1872 2001 Each Model Run 1910 1945 1975

15. 15 Annual Trend (C/Century) OBS Model 1910-1945

16. 16 Annual Trend (C/Century) OBS Model 1946-1975

17. 17 Annual Trend (C/Century) OBS Model 1976-2001

18. 18 Land Surface Air Temperature Global, Annual, Linear Trend OBSERVATION MODEL Ensemble Average YEAR 1872 2001

19. 19 Land surface Temperature, Temporal correlation coefficient (%) between observation and model Annual, 1905-2001, Detrended

20. 20 Land surface Temperature, Temporal correlation coefficient (%) between observation and model Summer (JJA), 1905-2001, Detrended

21. 21 Land surface Temperature, Temporal correlation coefficient (%) between observation and model Winter (DJF), 1905-2001, Detrended

22. 22 Land Surface Air Temperature Global, Annual, Linear Trend MODEL Ensemble Average YEAR 1872-1891 1982-2001

23. 23 Model, Zonal Average