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Space-Based Solar Power An Opportunity for Strategic Security

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Presentation on theme: "Space-Based Solar Power An Opportunity for Strategic Security"— Presentation transcript:

1 Space-Based Solar Power An Opportunity for Strategic Security

2 Space-Based Solar Power
Outline Trends of Concern Space-Based Solar Power DoD, National, and International Impact The Role of U.S. Government Leadership

3 The Energy Challenge Our Generation’s Challenge
When asked shortly after WWII: “Prof Einstein, what do you see as the greatest threat to mankind?” His prompt reply: “Exponential growth.”

4 The Energy Challenge Trends of Concern
Population Energy Asia 56% Africa 13% Middle East 3% Western Europe 5% Eastern Europe 7% Our Hemisphere (US = 4%) Energy growth tracks w/ population & economic growth Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives come on line causing inability for supply to match demand, shortages & economic shock, instability / state failure, and great power competition Three energy concerns: 1) mobility fuels, 2) base-load electricity, 3) peak-use electricity By 2025, the world will have added 2 billion more people, 56% of the global population will be in Asia, and 66% will live in urban areas along the coasts Climate Change American Competitiveness Increased CO2 production may alter the Earth’s climate, possibly causing: Rising ocean levels and loss of coastal areas More intense tropical storms & humanitarian ops Agricultural climate change—causing migration, and shifts in power, ethnic & land based conflict The U.S. is losing global market share & leadership R&D investments & skilled workforce are declining "a major workforce crisis in the aerospace industry…a threat to national security and the U.S. ability to continue as a world leader.”

5 The Energy Challenge Future Energy Options Must Be…
Following wood, coal, and oil, the 4th energy must be*: Non-depletable - to prevent resource conflicts Environmentally clean – to permit a sustainable future [Continuously] Available – to provide base-load security for everyone In a usable form – to permit efficient consumption & minimal infrastructure Low cost - to permit constructive opportunity for all populations A portfolio of substantial investments are needed, but options in the next years are limited… Source Clean Safe Reliable Base-load Fossil Fuel No Yes Decades remaining Nuclear Fuel Limited Wind Power Intermittent Ground Solar Hydro Drought; Complex Scheduling Bio-fuels Limited Qty – Competes w/Food Space Solar * Adapted from Dr. Ralph Nansen’s book, “Sun Power”

6 While Enhancing U.S. Competitiveness and Export Opportunities?
The Energy Challenge But What If National Leaders Had A Solution… That Directly Addresses Global Energy Security Concerns? Can Deliver Power to World’s Energy Rich and Poor Alike Provides A Truly Sustainable & Clean Energy Path Thru 21st Century While Enhancing U.S. Competitiveness and Export Opportunities? Today’s U.S. Technical Leadership Can Become Economic Boom (Space Carrying Trade, Energy Export, Material Science, Robotics,…) With Pre-existing U.S. Public Support? 2002 American Space Use Poll - #1: Space Energy #2: Planetary Defense That Propels A Respected U.S. International Leadership Image? Demonstrating a Global Solution to a Global Problem And Responds to the Interests of Both Political Parties? Benefiting Conservative Business Interests Benefiting Liberal Social & Environmental Interests

7 Capabilities and Challenges What is Space Solar Power?
Solar Energy is captured in space by large photovoltaic arrays and transmitted via a coherent microwave or laser beam to an Earth receiver where it is converted into either base-load electric power, low-intensity charging power, or synthetic fuels Sunlight captured in space is many times more effective in providing continuous base load power compared to a solar array on the Earth SBSP has been studied since 1970’s by DOE, NASA, ESA, and JAXA, but has generally “fallen through the cracks” because no organization is responsible for both Space Programs and Energy Security Space Solar Solar Intensity 1,366 W/m2 No Night Min Weather Ground Solar Solar Intensity 1,000 W/m2 Night Loss Weather Loss

8 Sustainable Civilization
DoD, National, and International Impact Invest, Survive, Flourish and Grow – A Future History Sustainable Civilization Stable Population Stable Climate Demographic Transition Reduce Conflict Reduce GHG Stellar Probe Less Poverty Nations develop Travel Growth in GDP Industrialization Export Markets Telecom Hurricane Diversion Tourism Clean Energy Directed Energy Asteroid Defense OMV SBSP Tether Beamed Propulsion “Dredge Harbor” Reusable Launch Vehicle ISRU Wireless Power Transmission Space Radar Traffic Control Energy Infrastructure

9 DoD, National, and International Impact SBSP Economic Opportunities
Energy Sales U.S. Energy Companies & Utilities as Global Market Suppliers of Clean Energy Space Access Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) for Rapid/Low-Cost Space Access (<$500/kg) Space Tourism / Travel Lunar resource extraction/utilization following NASA exploration Orbital Infrastructure In-space Transport and Maintenance Space Manufacturing Systems Robotic Systems Power Generation High-efficiency/High-volume Space & Terrestrial Solar Collection Systems Space & Terrestrial Power Distribution Technology Wireless Power Beaming Terrestrial Remote Power Transmission (Low-Cost Modern Infrastructure) Continuous Electronics Re-Charge (Expanded Wireless Capabilities) Enhanced Telecommunications Capabilities (Industrial & Personal) Enhanced/Persistent Earth Monitoring (Radar Systems)

10 Space Access and Maneuver
DoD, National, and International Impact SBSP National Security Benefits Space Access and Maneuver RLV Development for Operationally Responsive Space Increased technical readiness for Space Tethers Surveillance High Power and Large Aperture development for Space Radar Space Structures Higher efficiency and Lighter Weight Solar Cells Increased technical readiness for Membrane & Solar Dynamic Structures Industrial and Science & Technology Capabilities Preservation of a Robust Aerospace Industry Science and Engineering Educational emphasis Advanced Robotics and Unmanned Systems Operational Maneuver on Earth Increased technical readiness for Direct Beaming of Transmitted Power Electricity-to-Fuel Conversion competence

11 DoD, National, and International Impact DoD SBSP Energy Applications
24/7 Off-Grid Garrison Base Power MW/day rectenna 24/7 Deployed Base Power & Fuel 5-8 MW continuous requirement JP-8 via Sabatier & refining processes Floating rectenna = sea base capability Humanitarian/Nation Building Power Defendable electrical power supply Energy w/low infrastructure cost/time Mobile Platform/Soldier Power Direct beaming to air or seaborne platforms Low-power beaming for soldier recharge Enables permanent surveillance/ops Space Applications Satellite power/maneuver Space-based radar Debris de-orbit Courtesy of Northrop Grumman Courtesy of Raytheon

12 NASA Fresh-Look & SERT Studies
Capabilities and Challenges If this has been looked at before, what’s changed? Technology! 40% Efficient Solar Cells! Materials / Nanotechnology Radar & Laser Technology Robotics / In-Space Construction & Servicing Deployable / Gossamer Structures Thermal Protection Tethers NRC-Validated NASA Fresh-Look & SERT Studies

13 Capabilities and Challenges If this has been looked at before, what’s changed?

14 Capabilities and Challenges Security & the Space Solar Power Option
Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) is an attractive long-term technology option that involves a compelling synergy between Energy Security, Space Security, and National Security Japan, China, India & EU already see the potential The most significant technical challenges are the development of Low-cost re-usable space access Demonstration of space-to-Earth power beaming Efficient and light space-qualified solar arrays Space Assembly, Maintenance and Servicing, and Large in-space structures These are in areas that already interest the DoD and others – and with modest departures to current R&D efforts could retire many of the technical barriers to Space-Based Solar Power

15 DoD, National, and International Impact Proposed Vision & Objectives of Space Solar Power
Assured Energy Security for the U.S. and Its Allies through Affordable & Abundant Space Solar Power with First Power within 25 years - VISION - The United States and Partners enable – within the next 20 years – the development and deployment of affordable Space Solar Power systems that assure the long-term, sustainable energy security of the U.S. and all mankind Innovation that Creates Novel Technologies and Systems Enabling New, Highly Profitable Industries on Earth and in Space Assured U.S. Preeminence in Space Access and Operations through Dramatic Advances in Transformational Space Capabilities

16 The Role of U.S. Government Leadership A Potential Action Plan
Space-Based Solar Power… Should be re-evaluated for technical feasibility and deliverability in a strategically relevant period (other nations have stated goals & started R&D) May offer significant & unique energy security benefits in an international context Requires only a relatively modest additional investment to address key barriers Represents a small departure from existing U.S. (DOD, DOE, NASA) programs…but involves tremendous synergies with other national goals The U.S. may want to consider a major SBSP program U.S. Government can play a significant role because its responsibilities and programs “straddle” energy, security, and space Next Steps (Action Items/Options): (A) NSSO initial situation-assessment architecture study through Sep 2007 (O) Sponsor a fast-paced directed ‘quick-look’ study (3-4 months; $500K) (O) If the results are positive, a larger scale, ‘seedling-type’ study should be undertaken to add legitimacy (12 months: $2M) (O) Results would inform a range of decisions by NLT 2009 (O) Form a national SBSP organization w/concept demos in 5-7 years

17 “Quick Look” Study [4-months, $500K] “Seedling” Study [12-months; $2M]
The Role of U.S. Government Leadership Development Steps for Consideration “Quick Look” Study [4-months, $500K] “State-of-the-art” review using existing NASA modeling tools “Seedling” Study [12-months; $2M] Technical, financial, environmental, organizational risk-retirement roadmaps Identify legitimate SBSP development partner groups Build a credible business case Private/Public SBSP Corporation Congressionally approved entity using successful Commsat model Concept Demonstrations [5-7 years] Should include international & entrepreneurial partnership where able DARPA-led w/NASA, DOE, NSF & DoD collaboration Ground-to-ground high-power microwave or laser transmission Ground-to-aerostat-to-ground microwave or laser retransmission LEO- and GEO-to-Earth power transmission Space-to-space power transmission Orbital maneuver & space infrastructure technologies Low-cost space access technology development and flight demonstrations

18 DOE DoD NASA NSF DARPA Private Investment
The Role of U.S. Government Leadership Joining Government, Commercial, & Int’l SBSP Interests DOE Solar Cells Terrestrial Distribution DoD NASA - VISION - The United States and Partners enable – within the next 20 years – the development and deployment of affordable Space Solar Power systems that assure the long-term, sustainable energy security of the U.S. and all mankind WPT RLV Space Structures Tethers O&M DARPA Nat’l Labs; Academia Robotics, Materials, Computational Intelligence, Lasers, Chips, WPT… NSF Private Investment Energy, Aerospace, Telecom, Venture… International “Intelsat-Type” Corporation Energy & Launch Services ”We Do These Things Not Because They Are Easy, but Because they Are Hard…” - President John F. Kennedy

19 Environmental Security
Conclusion Space-Based Solar Power – A Strategic Opportunity for America Energy Security Environmental Security SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER Economic Competitiveness National Needs Bring feasibility to the attention of nat’l leadership - highlight USG’s enabling role

20 Back-Up Slides

21 The Potential of Space Solar Power Broad Public Support
2002 2005 Space Goal 32% 35% Build satellites in Earth orbit to collect solar energy to beam to utilities on Earth 23% 17% Develop the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might destroy the Earth 4% 10% Send humans to Mars 2% 7% Search for life on other planets 6% Build a human colony in space 5% Build a base on the moon for humans to use for exploration of the moon 3% Develop a passenger rocket to send tourists into space 11% None of the above, we should stop spending money on space 13% No Opinion 1% None of the above Over the years, a number of goals have been proposed for the U.S. space program including missions to Mars (Zubrin 1996), space colonization (O'Neill 1976), a return to the moon (Spudis 1996), and space tourism (David 2004). The purpose of this exploratory study was to measure the level of public interest in different space goals. Two goals stood out far beyond all others. The first of these goals was developing the capability of using Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) or space energy to meet the nation's energy needs. In percent, nearly 1/3 of the respondents, supported this goal. In 2005, 35 percent, again nearly 1/3 of respondents, supported the development of SBSP. The second goal that appeared to receive broad support was developing the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might threaten the Earth with impact (planetary defense). 2002 Survey - National Space Goals Matula & Loveland, 2006

22 SBSP is most like Hydroelectric
High Capital Costs Long Payback No Fossil Fuel Feed Renewable 2.07 GW (peak) High Capital Costs Long Payback No Fossil Fuel Feed Renewable 2.5 GW (sustained)

23 How big is the SBSP resource?
363 TW-yrs Total area of a cylinder of 1km width and perimeter at GEO (w*2*pi*r). In reality, you would not build a ring, and individual powersats could be turned normal to the Sun. However a ring establishes the max upper limit of energy and is a good approximation. For a ring, max limit of actual radiation available in a 1km band must be reduced by self-shielding (pi/2), and perhaps worst inclination degrees (cosine of 23 degrees = .92) Remaining Oil Reserve of TBBL = TW-yrs More and more of this oil will have to be used to recover remaining reserves ~250 TW-yrs ~212TW-yrs Annual World Energy Demand (All Forms) All Recoverable Oil Annual energy Available in just 1 km of GEO 50 TW (2050) 30 TW (2025) Annual Energy-to-Grid On-Earth 21 TW assuming 10% Solar-to-Grid of 1 km 15 TW (2007) Annual Oil Production ~8TW-yr

24 Drilling Up: How large is the GEO solar resource?
1km 1 year x 1 km wide band ≈ 212 TW-years All Remaining Oil Resource ≈ 250 TW-years Every Kilometer-wide band at GEO receives nearly as much energy per annum as the content of the entire remaining oil 1.28 T BBls of oil remaining

25 How many 5GW SPS would it take to displace generating capacity?
Nigeria 1 North Korea 1.5 Burma 1.5 U.S.A. Annual Growth 1-2 Venezuela 4 Thailand 5 Mexico 10 South Korea 10 Africa 20 India 23 Japan 52 China 68 U.S.A. Base-Load 69 OECD Europe 150 U.S.A. Total Capacity 200 World Today 742 Electric Gen only World ,000 All Energy for projected population at Developed Lifestyle (50TW) 1 TW Generating Capacity. In 2003, Average Electric consumption was .49 of capacity (443/905). Annual Load curve for New York State shows min power demand .69 of average. 1TWx.49x.69=345GW estimated US Base Load /5G per powersat =

26 The Limits of SBPS 5 GW Assuming Each SPS delivers 5GW:
It would require up to 4 SPS to built per year to meet current annual growth in US Electrical Demand (2% of 1 TW, or 20 GW) It would require 200 SPS to replace current US Generating Capacity of 1 TW (70% Fossil Fuels, 50% Coal) It would require 742 SPS to meet today’s World Electrical Demand of 3.7TW, spaced one every 357 km It would require 10 to replace current generating capacity of Mexico or South Korea;1 for Nigeria, 4 for venezuela, 5 Thailand, 20 doubles all africa, It would require 10,000 SPS to meet the Total Energy Demand of the World in 2100, estimated to be 50TW (50,000GW, or 5KWe for each of 10 billion people)

27 A New Approach Space Power Feasibility Evolution
Study ESA Japan METI / JASDA Study DC-X X-33 RLV TAV NASA/NSF JIETSBSP NASA Fresh Look NASA / DOE studies NASA SERT Peter Glaser Proposes Reference Design NRC NRC Report

28 Does this look like an energy project to you?
= $.7 – 1.2B first unit cost ($6-10B Development) $1 - 5B It should. Think of an RLV as an energy mining platform. The way to energy security is through space.

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